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Bryson Women's Fleet Race

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 2 1 2 1 2 4 1 3 3 19 Alice Schmid '27 [1-2]
Kit Harned '27 [3-9]
Ashtyn Tierney '28 [1-2]
Alice Schmid '27 [3-9]
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 1 4 4 2 1 2 6 5 2 27 Vivian Bonsager '25
Stella Taherian '27
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 3 2 5 4 6 3 3 6 5 37 Ellie Harned '26 [1-2]
Ava Cornell '28 [3-9]
Piper Blackband '28 [1-2]
Alexandra Jones '28 [3-9]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 11 3 6 3 4 1 4 2 4 38 Morgana Manti '26
Ava Bergan '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 6 11 1 7 5 6 5 7 1 49 Evelyn Engebretson '28
Lana Coomes '28
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 8 6 11 5 3 8 2 1 6 50 Malia Johnson '25 [1-2]
Martha Schuessler '27 [3-9]
Peyton Lieser '26 [1-2]
Morgan Carew '25 [3-9]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 9 9 3 6 7 5 7 4 7 57 Lara Granucci '28
Julia Szymanski '28
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 4 8 9 9 10 7 8 9 10 74 Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26
Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 14 14 7 10 9 13 10 8 8 93 Stephanie Seto '27
Gloria Jorczak '28
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils A 5 5 16 14 11 14 11 12 12 100 Sadie Hoberman '25
Gillian Cate '25
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 10 7 13 15 8 15 9 14 9 100 Sammy Farkas '27
Julia Oglevie '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 7 12 12 11 15 9 12 15 11 104 Bianca Weber '26
Amelia Gassner '28
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons A 13 13 8 8 14 11 16 16 16 115 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Nida Firdaws '25
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils B 15 10 10 16 12 16 14 10 15 118 Erin Welker '27
Samantha George '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 16 15 14 13 13 10 13 13 13 120 Mia Kotelec '25
Marin Mitchell '27
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons B 12 16 15 12 16 12 15 11 14 123 Alex Bussey '25
Cassie Halaszynski '25
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils111111111
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears333333333
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows666666666
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans777777777
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal222222222
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons444444444
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos555555555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies888888888

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils999999999
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears111111111111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows141414141414141414
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans151515151515151515
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal101010101010101010
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons121212121212121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131313131313131313
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies161616161616161616

Conditions — 02/15/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1027.1 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 52°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
1.7 kn
avg  ·  max 3.0 kn
Gusts to 9.9 kn
From NNE (28°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine9.4 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1027.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 6 kn* · N 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.08 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →