Southern NE Team Race

HostConnecticut College
Date03/15/2025
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Roger Williams University	Hawks	10–4
2	Boston College	Eagles	10–4
3	Tulane University	Green Wave	9–5
4	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	9–5
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams	7–7
6	Tufts University	Jumbos	6–8
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	7–5
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	6–6
9	Brown University	Bears	2–10
10	Connecticut College	Camels	0–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,847 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-15, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 44 of 66 matches (67%) with a log-loss of 0.557 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.10 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 32% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	1	11.59 school +0.39	Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 4.28 8–4 Kyle Pfrang / Claire Buckley 3.90 9–1 Lucy Meagher / Maren Matthews 3.09 3–3 Mathieu Dale / Maren Matthews 3.45 5–1 Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley 3.42 1–3 Oliver Stokke / Carly Kiss 3.44 2–0 Oliver Stokke / Maren Matthews 3.32 2–0	82%	10–4 (71%)	−1.5
2	Boston College Eagles	2	11.04 school +0.26	Peter Busch / Emily Marlas 3.65 Michael Kirkman / Lanie Ferrarone 3.49 Jack Redmond / Matt Budington 3.62	70%	10–4 (71%)	+0.2
3	Tulane University Green Wave	4	10.45	Hamilton Barclay / Cj Ricci 3.54 Christian Ebbin / Sabrina Anderson Kelly Holthus / Taylor Bartell 3.35	60%	9–5 (64%)	+0.6
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	7	9.74 school −0.06	Sam Bonauto / Holliss Hirsch 3.16 Thomas Hall / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.56 5–3 Thibault Antonietti / Isabelle Tsuchitori 3.20 4–2 Thomas Hall / Elizabeth Wire 3.37 4–2 Thibault Antonietti / Kaile Olson 3.13 2–2 Thibault Antonietti / Elizabeth Wire 3.04 3–1	43%	9–5 (64%)	+3.0
5	University of Rhode Island Rams	9	9.36 school −0.09	Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 3.96 Tyler Nash / Ursula Budd 2.91 Owen Grainger / Eric Pohl 2.75 4–3 Olin Guck / Parker Brown 2.38 3–4	32%	7–7 (50%)	+2.5
6	Tufts University Jumbos	8	9.63 school +0.20	Ben Mueller / Kate Castleberry 3.31 Wyatt Bischoff / Cindy Wang 2.90 Kurt Stuebe / Naomi Pedersen 3.19	38%	6–8 (43%)	+0.8
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3	10.52 school +0.12	Colman Schofield / Charles Pohl 3.88 Nicholas Reeser / Daniel Neville 3.58 Bradley Whiteway / Sarah Krajewski 2.94	64%	7–5 (58%)	−0.7
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	6	9.71 school +0.15	Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 3.03 Sam Bruce / Ellie Pinto 3.66 William Kulas / Samantha Karlson 2.85	47%	6–6 (50%)	+0.3
9	Brown University Bears	5	10.01 school +0.40	Mason Stang / Olivia Miller 3.37 Tyler Lamm / Reese Corckran 3.23 2–8 Charles Gish / Marin Soderberg 2.93 2–7 James Brock / Corinne Harrison 3.17 0–5	52%	2–10 (17%)	−4.2
10	Connecticut College Camels	10	7.54 school +0.32, home +0.37	Liam Gronda / Vivian Smith 1.86 0–8 Henry Scholz / Sophia Rey 2.45 0–6 William Hurd / Alejandro Amezcua 2.31 0–6 Henry Scholz / Clifton Carragher 2.51 0–4 William Hurd / Clifton Carragher 2.33 0–3 Skylor Sweet / Clifton Carragher 2.64 0–3 Skylor Sweet / Madeline Synnestvedt 2.52 0–3 Liam Gronda / Clifton Carragher 1.81 0–1 William Hurd / Vivian Smith 2.40 0–1 Liam Gronda / Sophia Rey 1.77 0–1	8%	0–12 (0%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Bowdoin College	9.74	10.79	9–5	6.0	+1.05	2.3	7%
5	University of Rhode Island	9.36	10.27	7–7	4.5	+0.90	1.6	11%
6	Tufts University	9.63	9.90	6–8	5.2	+0.27	0.1	43%
3	Tulane University	10.45	10.66	9–5	8.4	+0.21	0.1	49%
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.71	9.85	6–6	5.7	+0.14	0.0	54%
2	Boston College	11.04	11.13	10–4	9.8	+0.09	0.0	59%
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	10.52	10.23	7–5	7.7	−0.29	0.1	79%
1	Roger Williams University	11.59	10.91	10–4	11.5	−0.68	0.8	92%
9	Brown University	10.01	8.01	2–10	6.2	−2.00	5.5	>99%
10	Connecticut College	7.54	4.54	0–12	1.0	≤−3.00	1.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Thibault Antonietti	Bowdoin College	3.20	4.25	9–5	6.0	+1.05	2.3	7%
Kerem Erkmen	University of Rhode Island	3.96	4.87	7–7	4.5	+0.90	1.6	11%
Ben Mueller	Tufts University	3.31	3.59	6–8	5.2	+0.27	0.1	43%
Bradley Whiteway	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.94	2.65	7–5	7.7	−0.29	0.1	79%
Carlos De Castro	Roger Williams University	4.28	3.41	8–4	9.8	−0.87	1.2	95%
Lucy Meagher	Roger Williams University	3.09	1.67	3–3	4.7	−1.42	1.8	98%
Charles Gish	Brown University	2.93	1.08	2–7	5.2	−1.85	4.0	>99%
William Hurd	Connecticut College	2.31	-0.69	0–10	0.7	≤−3.00	1.0	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	31%	upset
1	2	Roger Williams University	Connecticut College	97%
1	3	Tufts University	Brown University	42%	upset
1	4	Bowdoin College	Tulane University	32%	upset
1	5	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	82%
1	6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	96%
1	7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	44%	upset
1	8	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	18%	upset
1	9	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	48%	upset
1	10	Boston College	Tulane University	64%
1	11	Brown University	Connecticut College	86%
1	12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bowdoin College	70%
1	13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Rhode Island	54%
1	14	Tulane University	Roger Williams University	32%	upset
1	15	Tufts University	Boston College	20%	upset
1	16	Bowdoin College	Brown University	45%	upset
1	17	University of Rhode Island	Connecticut College	82%
1	18	Tulane University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	48%	upset
1	19	Tufts University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	48%	upset
1	20	Roger Williams University	Boston College	73%
1	21	University of Rhode Island	Bowdoin College	35%	upset
1	22	Tulane University	Brown University	63%
1	23	Tufts University	Connecticut College	91%
1	24	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	82%
1	25	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	79%
1	26	Tulane University	University of Rhode Island	78%
1	27	Tufts University	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
1	28	Roger Williams University	Brown University	86%
1	29	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	91%
1	30	Boston College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	63%
1	31	Tufts University	Tulane University	31%	upset
1	32	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	94%
1	33	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	50%	upset
1	34	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	58%
1	35	Boston College	Connecticut College	97%
1	36	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	91%
1	37	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	68%
1	38	University of Rhode Island	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	27%	upset
1	39	Bowdoin College	Connecticut College	89%
1	40	Boston College	Brown University	75%
1	41	Roger Williams University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	75%
1	42	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Tufts University	71%
1	43	Tulane University	Connecticut College	96%
1	44	University of Rhode Island	Brown University	40%	upset
1	45	Bowdoin College	Boston College	21%	upset
2	46	Boston College	Bowdoin College	79%
2	47	Tulane University	Tufts University	69%
2	48	University of Rhode Island	Roger Williams University	6%	upset
2	49	Bowdoin College	Tufts University	54%
2	50	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	82%
2	51	Roger Williams University	Tulane University	67%
2	52	University of Rhode Island	Tufts University	48%	upset
2	53	Tulane University	Bowdoin College	67%
2	54	Roger Williams University	Boston College	73%
2	55	Tulane University	University of Rhode Island	78%
2	56	Boston College	Tufts University	80%
2	57	Bowdoin College	Roger Williams University	19%	upset
2	58	Boston College	Tulane University	64%
2	59	Bowdoin College	University of Rhode Island	65%
2	60	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	90%
3	61	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	58%
3	62	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Connecticut College	91%
3	63	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	69%
3	64	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Connecticut College	96%
3	65	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	44%	upset
3	66	Brown University	Connecticut College	86%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Eagles	Wave	Bears	Rams	Jumbos	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Camels
Roger Williams University Hawks	7–2	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	6–3	L	✕	W	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	6–3	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	6–3	W	W	W	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	5–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–3	L	W	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–5	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–5	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hawks	Eagles	Wave	Bears	Rams	Jumbos
Roger Williams University Hawks	3–2	✕	W	W	L	L	W
Boston College Eagles	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	3–2	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	2–3	W	L	L	L	✕	W
Tufts University Jumbos	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bears	Engineers	Bears	Camels
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Brown University Bears	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Connecticut College Camels	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
2	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
3	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
4	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
5	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
6	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
7	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
8	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Hawks	3-5-6
9	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
10	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
11	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
12	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
13	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
14	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
15	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
16	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
17	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
18	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
19	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
21	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
22	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
23	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Camels	1-5-6
24	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
25	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
26	Green Wave	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
27	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
28	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
29	Engineers	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
30	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
31	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
32	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
33	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
34	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
35	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
36	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
37	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
38	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
39	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6
40	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
41	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
42	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6
43	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Camels	4-5-6
44	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
45	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
46	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
47	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
48	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
49	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
50	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
51	Hawks	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
52	Rams	3-4-6	def.	Jumbos	1-2-5 DSQ
53	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
54	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
55	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
56	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
57	Polar Bears	2-3-4	def.	Hawks	1-5-6
58	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
59	Polar Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
60	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
61	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Camels	3-4-5
63	Bears	3-4-5	def.	Engineers	1-2-6 DSQ
64	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Camels	3-5-6
65	Engineers	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
66	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Camels	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Carlos De Castro '26 Kyle Pfrang '26 Lucy Meagher '27 Mathieu Dale '25 Oliver Stokke '26	Carly Kiss '25 Claire Buckley '25 Maren Matthews '26
Boston College	Eagles	Jack Redmond '26 Michael Kirkman '25 Peter Busch '26	Matt Budington '25 Lanie Ferrarone '28 Emily Marlas '26
Tulane University	Green Wave	Christian Ebbin '28 Hamilton Barclay '27 Kelly Holthus '27	Sabrina Anderson '28 Cj Ricci '25 Taylor Bartell '28
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Sam Bonauto '25 Thibault Antonietti '24 Thomas Hall '25	Holliss Hirsch '25 Isabelle Tsuchitori '26 Elizabeth Wire '28 Kaile Olson '27
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Kerem Erkmen '25 Olin Guck '26 Owen Grainger '28 Tyler Nash '26	Abbie Chipps '25 Parker Brown '26 Eric Pohl '28 Ursula Budd '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Ben Mueller '26 Kurt Stuebe '27 Wyatt Bischoff '27	Kate Castleberry '28 Naomi Pedersen '25 Cindy Wang '25
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Bradley Whiteway '26 Colman Schofield '25 Nicholas Reeser '25	Sarah Krajewski '26 Charles Pohl '26 Daniel Neville '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Julius Heitkoetter '25 Sam Bruce '24 William Kulas '28	Yitian Zhu '25 Ellie Pinto '27 Samantha Karlson '25
Brown University	Bears	Charles Gish '28 James Brock '28 Mason Stang '25 Tyler Lamm '28	Marin Soderberg '28 Corinne Harrison '27 Olivia Miller '25 Reese Corckran '28
Connecticut College	Camels	Henry Scholz '27 Liam Gronda '25 Skylor Sweet '26 William Hurd '27	Sophia Rey '26 Clifton Carragher '25 Vivian Smith '27 Madeline Synnestvedt '27 Alejandro Amezcua '25

Conditions — 03/15/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 87% · Pressure 1021.4 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 46°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.5 kn

avg · max 8.0 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From S (175°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.9 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1021.4 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.06)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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