| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Massachusetts Institute of Technology | Engineers | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
University of Rhode Island | Rams | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
Tufts University | Jumbos | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 28 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.402 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.47 ± 0.37: an orderly event, more orderly than 92% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harvard University | 11.34 | 14.34 | 7–0 | 4.7 | ≥+3.00 | 4.3 | 4% |
| 5 | Massachusetts Institute of Technology | 9.28 | 10.39 | 3–4 | 1.6 | +1.12 | 1.1 | 19% |
| 2 | Yale University | 11.53 | 12.57 | 6–1 | 5.0 | +1.04 | 0.7 | 32% |
| 3 | Roger Williams University | 11.64 | 11.54 | 5–2 | 5.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 4 | Brown University | 11.56 | 10.79 | 4–3 | 5.0 | −0.77 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 6 | Dartmouth College | 10.35 | 9.51 | 2–5 | 3.0 | −0.84 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 7 | University of Rhode Island | 9.53 | 8.67 | 1–6 | 1.8 | −0.86 | 0.5 | 90% |
| 8 | Tufts University | 9.35 | 6.35 | 0–7 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 3.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos De Castro | Roger Williams University | 4.21 | 4.12 | 5–2 | 5.1 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 73% |
| Kerem Erkmen | University of Rhode Island | 3.95 | 3.09 | 1–6 | 1.8 | −0.86 | 0.5 | 90% |
| Ben Mueller | Tufts University | 3.35 | 0.35 | 0–7 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 3.0 | >99% |
| Adrien Bellanger | Tufts University | 2.59 | -0.41 | 0–7 | 1.7 | ≤−3.00 | 3.0 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Bulldogs | Hawks | Bears | Engineers | Green | Rams | Jumbos | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Yale University Bulldogs | 6–1 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Rhode Island Rams | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Tufts University Jumbos | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Big Green | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Rams | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Engineers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Crimson | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 2-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Rams | 3-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Jumbos | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Engineers | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Rams | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 2-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Engineers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 1-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Bears | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Hawks | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Jumbos | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Engineers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Rams | 4-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Crimson | 1-5-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 DSQ |
| 28 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
