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Sharpe Trophy Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 12–2
2 Yale University Yale University Bulldogs 12–2
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 9–5
4 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 8–6
5 Roger Williams University Roger Williams University Hawks 7–7
6 Boston College Boston College Eagles 5–9
7 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 3–11
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 22,017 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 43 of 56 matches (77%) with a log-loss of 0.488 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.05 ± 0.26: a typical event, more orderly than 48% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Harvard University
Crimson		211.80
school +0.24		Mitchell Callahan / Alexandra Dorofeev 3.81 10–2
Lachlain Mcgranahan / Aidan Pesce 3.83 11–1
Justin Callahan / Kennedy Leehealey 4.00 9–1
Robby Meek / Kennedy Leehealey 3–1
Robby Meek / Alexandra Dorofeev 2–0
Justin Callahan / Aidan Pesce 3.82 1–1		77%12–2 (86%)+1.2
2Yale University
Bulldogs		311.34
school +0.26		Jack Egan / Elle Sykes 3.82 8–2
Morgan Pinckney / Jessi Avila-Shah 9–1
Teddy Nicolosi / Ashley Highland 3.82 7–1
Stephan Baker / Ashley Highland 3.70 3–1
Stephan Baker / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.64 1–1
Jack Egan / Nathan Sih 3.94 2–0
Teddy Nicolosi / Carmen Berg 3.84 2–0
Jack Egan / Carmen Berg 3.86 2–0
Stephan Baker / Elle Sykes 3.68 2–0		67%12–2 (86%)+2.7
3Brown University
Bears 1		111.95
school +0.28, home +0.43		Guthrie Braun / Emily Mueller 3.62
Liam O'Keefe / Savannah Young 3.94
Connor Nelson / Vera Allen 3.67		78%9–5 (64%)−2.0
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Engineers		79.24Sam Bruce / Ellie Pinto 3.28 4–4
Julius Heitkoetter / Yitian Zhu 2.79 5–3
Matthew Elliott / Wendy Wu 2.92 3–3
Maks Groom / Wendy Wu 3.18 4–2
Sam Bruce / Nicholas Abate 3.46 2–2
Julius Heitkoetter / Jemma Schroder 2.77 2–2
Matthew Elliott / Yitian Zhu 2.78 1–1
Robert Ulmer / Wendy Wu 1–1
Sam Bruce / Jemma Schroder 3.40 2–0		23%8–6 (57%)+4.8
5Roger Williams University
Hawks		411.01
school +0.27		Aidan Hoogland / Michaela Odonnell 3.61
Carlos De Castro / Carly Kiss 3.83
Oliver Stokke / Claire Buckley 3.26 3–3
Mathieu Dale / Addyson Fisher 2.98 2–2
Kyle Pfrang / Julia O'Connor 3.55 2–2		60%7–7 (50%)−1.3
6Boston College
Eagles		510.09
school +0.26		Peter Busch / Lourdes Gallo 3.50
Peter Joslin / Emily Marlas 3.08
Michael Kirkman / Lily Ornstein 3.20 4–8
Michael Kirkman / Kennedy Laureigh 3.32 1–1		42%5–9 (36%)−0.8
7Brown University
Bears 2		610.03
school +0.28, home +0.43		Cam Spriggs / Catherine Morrissette
Mason Stang / Olivia Miller 3.22
Leyton Borcherding / Caroline Keeffe-Jones 3.09		38%3–11 (21%)−2.2
8University of Rhode Island
Rams		88.78
school −0.05		Kerem Erkmen / Abbie Chipps 3.58
Henry Lee / Eric Pohl 2.87
Olin Guck / Sadie Thomas 2.39 0–8
Max Sigel / Parker Brown 2.33 0–4
Olin Guck / Parker Brown 2.23 0–2		16%0–14 (0%)−2.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers9.2411.128–63.2+1.876.7<1%
2Yale University Bulldogs11.3412.6712–29.3+1.332.48%
1Harvard University Crimson11.8012.4612–210.8+0.660.532%
6Boston College Eagles10.099.765–95.8−0.330.280%
5Roger Williams University Hawks11.0110.497–78.3−0.510.588%
3Brown University Bears 111.9511.109–511.0−0.851.395%
7Brown University Bears 210.039.003–115.2−1.031.697%
8University of Rhode Island Rams8.785.780–142.3≤−3.003.6>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Peter JoslinBoston College3.082.755–95.8−0.330.280%
Aidan HooglandRoger Williams University3.613.107–78.3−0.510.588%
Carlos De CastroRoger Williams University3.833.327–78.3−0.510.588%
Lachlain McgranahanHarvard University3.832.942–22.5−0.890.393%
Kerem ErkmenUniversity of Rhode Island3.580.580–142.3≤−3.003.6>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers95%
12Roger Williams University HawksBrown University Bears 273%
13Brown University Bears 1University of Rhode Island Rams96%
14Yale University BulldogsBoston College Eagles77%
15Harvard University CrimsonBrown University Bears 286%
16Brown University Bears 1Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers95%
17Yale University BulldogsRoger Williams University Hawks53%
18Boston College EaglesUniversity of Rhode Island Rams78%
19Brown University Bears 1Brown University Bears 287%
110Yale University BulldogsHarvard University Crimson41%upset
111Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersUniversity of Rhode Island Rams57%
112Roger Williams University HawksBoston College Eagles66%
113Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears 133%upset
114Brown University Bears 2University of Rhode Island Rams78%
115Harvard University CrimsonRoger Williams University Hawks77%
116Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBoston College Eagles29%upset
117Yale University BulldogsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams92%
118Brown University Bears 1Roger Williams University Hawks66%
119Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears 236%upset
120Boston College EaglesHarvard University Crimson22%upset
121Roger Williams University HawksUniversity of Rhode Island Rams92%
122Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers88%
123Harvard University CrimsonBrown University Bears 150%upset
124Brown University Bears 2Boston College Eagles49%upset
125Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersRoger Williams University Hawks17%upset
126Harvard University CrimsonUniversity of Rhode Island Rams94%
127Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears 283%
128Brown University Bears 1Boston College Eagles87%
229Harvard University CrimsonMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers95%
230Roger Williams University HawksBrown University Bears 272%
231Brown University Bears 1University of Rhode Island Rams96%
232Yale University BulldogsBoston College Eagles76%
233Harvard University CrimsonBrown University Bears 286%
234Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears 15%upset
235Roger Williams University HawksYale University Bulldogs46%upset
236Boston College EaglesUniversity of Rhode Island Rams78%
237Brown University Bears 1Brown University Bears 287%
238Harvard University CrimsonYale University Bulldogs60%
239Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersUniversity of Rhode Island Rams57%
240Roger Williams University HawksBoston College Eagles66%
241Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears 133%upset
242Brown University Bears 2University of Rhode Island Rams78%
243Harvard University CrimsonRoger Williams University Hawks77%
244Boston College EaglesMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers71%
245Yale University BulldogsUniversity of Rhode Island Rams92%
246Brown University Bears 1Roger Williams University Hawks66%
247Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersBrown University Bears 236%upset
248Harvard University CrimsonBoston College Eagles79%
249Roger Williams University HawksUniversity of Rhode Island Rams92%
250Yale University BulldogsMassachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers87%
251Harvard University CrimsonBrown University Bears 150%
252Boston College EaglesBrown University Bears 251%
253Massachusetts Institute of Technology EngineersRoger Williams University Hawks17%upset
254Harvard University CrimsonUniversity of Rhode Island Rams94%
255Yale University BulldogsBrown University Bears 283%
256Brown University Bears 1Boston College Eagles87%

Round 1

TeamRec.CrimsonBulldogs1EngineersHawksEagles2Rams
Harvard University Crimson5–2✕LWWWLWW
Yale University Bulldogs7–0W✕WWWWWW
Brown University Bears 17–7LL✕LWW✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–3LLW✕WWWW
Roger Williams University Hawks3–4LLLL✕WLW
Boston College Eagles2–5WLLLL✕LW
Brown University Bears 27–7LL✕LWW✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–7LLLLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.CrimsonBulldogs1EngineersHawksEagles2Rams
Harvard University Crimson7–0✕WWWWWWW
Yale University Bulldogs5–2L✕WWLWWW
Brown University Bears 15–9LL✕LWW✕W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers4–3LLW✕WLWW
Roger Williams University Hawks4–3LWLL✕WLW
Boston College Eagles3–4LLLWL✕LW
Brown University Bears 25–9LL✕LWW✕W
University of Rhode Island Rams0–7LLLLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
2 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 2 4-5-6
3 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
4 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Boston College Eagles 4-5-6
5 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-4-5
6 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
7 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
8 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
9 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 2 4-5-6
10 Yale University Bulldogs 1-4-5 def. Harvard University Crimson 2-3-6
11 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
12 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
13 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 DSQ def. Brown University Bears 1 3-4-5 DSQ
14 Brown University Bears 2 1-4-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-3-6
15 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 3-5-6
16 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-4-6
17 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
18 Brown University Bears 1 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
19 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-4-5
20 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Harvard University Crimson 3-4-5
21 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
22 Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
23 Harvard University Crimson 2-4-6 def. Brown University Bears 1 1-3-5 DSQ
24 Brown University Bears 2 1-4-5 def. Boston College Eagles 2-3-6
25 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-3-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-4-5
26 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
27 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 2 4-5-6
28 Brown University Bears 1 1-3-4 def. Boston College Eagles 2-5-6
29 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
30 Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2 1-5-6
31 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
32 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Boston College Eagles 4-5-6
33 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 2 1-5-6
34 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 1 3-4-6
35 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-4-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 2-3-6
36 Boston College Eagles 1-3-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 2-4-6
37 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-5 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-4-6
38 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. Yale University Bulldogs 3-4-6
39 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
40 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-4 def. Boston College Eagles 3-5-6
41 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 1 3-4-5
42 Brown University Bears 2 2-3-4 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 1-5-6
43 Harvard University Crimson 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
44 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6
45 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 4-5-6
46 Brown University Bears 1 2-3-4 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 1-5-6
47 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-2-3 def. Brown University Bears 2 4-5-6
48 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-3 def. Boston College Eagles 4-5-6
49 Roger Williams University Hawks 1-2-6 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-5
50 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-3 def. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 4-5-6
51 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 1 3-5-6
52 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-4-5
53 Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers 1-5-6 def. Roger Williams University Hawks 2-3-4 DSQ
54 Harvard University Crimson 1-2-5 def. University of Rhode Island Rams 3-4-6
55 Yale University Bulldogs 1-2-4 def. Brown University Bears 2 3-5-6
56 Brown University Bears 1 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5

Conditions — 03/02/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 91%  ·  Pressure 1030.3 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 46°F   ↓ 36°F
Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.7 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.3 hrs Humidity91% Pressure1030.3 hPa Rain0.18 in

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →