Little Three

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 6 8 14
2 Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 16 4 20
3 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 11 19 30
4 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 21 16 37
5 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 15 23 38
6 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 1 25 21 46
7 Williams College Williams College Ephs 20 35 55
8 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 30 35 65
9 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 36 31 67
10 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 4 42 44 86
11 Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 2 42 44 86
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 1 3 1 1 6 Zachary Amelotte '27
Elizabeth Amelotte '24
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 2 1 3 5 11 Ryan Potter '24
Sam Thompson '24
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 4 4 4 3 15 Katherine Weaver '25
Perrine Schneegans '27
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 5 5 2 4 16 Rob Mailley '24
Sophie Menyhart '27
Williams College Williams College Ephs 3 8 7 2 20 Felix Nusbaum '25
Viviana Barberi '24
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 6 2 5 8 21 Walter Chiles '27
Isabelle Vagell '26
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 1 7 6 6 6 25 Nat Edmonds '24
Divine Daryl Kengne Mukem '27
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 8 7 8 7 30 William Procter '24
Robin Potter '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 9 9 9 9 36 Dalyan Yet '26
Annabelle Wyman '25
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 4 10 11 11 10 42 Aric Duncan '27
Lee Mckinley '27
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 2 11 10 10 11 42 Colin Sueyoshi '26
Clarence Mungai '27
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Dartmouth College Dartmouth College Big Green 1 1 1 1 4 Will Eggena '27
Xander Dalke '27
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 2 2 2 2 2 8 Maddy Saffer '24
Mary Wallace '27
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 1 3 3 5 5 16 Grace Augspurger '25
Maggie Hannis '25
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 1 7 5 4 3 19 Ella Towner '27
Jackson Hurd-Messom '27
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 1 5 6 6 4 21 Adrian Whitney '26
David Chege '27
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 9 4 3 7 23 Brendan Chinn '26
Emilia Oliver '26
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 3 8 9 8 6 31 Aidan Ulian '27
Ellie Dripps '27
Williams College Williams College Ephs 4 7 DNF DNF 35 Rem Johannknecht '26
James Burge '24
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 2 6 10 7 DNF 35 Clare Rados '27
Annie Mcgarry '27
Amherst College Amherst College Mammoths 2 DNF DNS DNS 8 44 Rufus Fender-Reid '27
Yunwen Xu '27
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 4 DNF 8 DNF DNS 44 Nick Brodie '27
Oliver Hoppe '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths 11113
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths 22224
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green3335
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds4447
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 15558
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 27779
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 388810
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 499911
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 110101012
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 21111111
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs1212122

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths 12224
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Mammoths 23335
Dartmouth CollegeDartmouth College Big Green4447
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds5558
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 17779
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 288810
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 399911
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers 410101012
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 11111111
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts 21212122
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs1113

Conditions — 04/27/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 39%  ·  Pressure 1028.3 hPa

Temperature

58°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.5 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 23.7 kn
From S (188°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity39% Pressure1028.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 16 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Middlebury: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.24)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.32
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.24 means a rating gap counts about 20% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Middlebury by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 9 labelled days at Middlebury, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →