Jumbo Team Race

HostTufts
Date03/29/2025
TypeFundamental
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Brown University	Bears	17–3
2	Roger Williams University	Hawks	15–5
3	Tufts University	Jumbos	14–6
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	9–11
5	Yale University	Bulldogs	9–9
6	Boston College	Eagles	8–10
7	University of Rhode Island	Rams	2–16
8	Bentley University	Falcons	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,645 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-29, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 65 of 74 matches (88%) with a log-loss of 0.351 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.37 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 82% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Brown University Bears	1	10.07 school +0.39	James Brock / Janelle Li 3.18 Mason Stang / Olivia Miller 3.30 Tyler Lamm / Reese Corckran 3.22 15–3 Charles Gish / Marin Soderberg 2.86 2–0	80%	17–3 (85%)	+0.9
2	Roger Williams University Hawks	2	9.60 school +0.42	Drew Mastovsky / Maren Matthews 3.31 Jack Roman / Elyssa Franklin 2.84 Tristan Mcdonald / Frankie Sparrow 3.02	71%	15–5 (75%)	+0.8
3	Tufts University Jumbos	4	9.26 school +0.30, home +0.36	Adrien Bellanger / Margaret Klein 2.63 John Eastman / Sean Beaver 3.04 Jack Flores / Magdelaina Putnam 2.91	63%	14–6 (70%)	+1.3
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	6	7.83 school +0.13	Peter Mcgonagle / Austin White 2.52 Luke Zylinski / Grace Austin 2.87 Joey Richardson / Julian Henderson 2.26	32%	9–11 (45%)	+2.5
5	Yale University Bulldogs	3	8.78 school +0.31	Dorothy Mendelblatt / Clara Díaz Suárez 3.12 Mathias Reimer / Ariana Borut 2.65 Audrey Foley / Mary Madaus 2.64	64%	9–9 (50%)	−2.5
6	Boston College Eagles	5	8.07 school +0.35	James O’Gwen / Sophia Hacket Rogelio Casellas / Tor Svendsen Griffin Gigliotti / Abbie Catalano 2.65 6–10 Ryan Mcgauley / Paige Roby 2.95 2–0	46%	8–10 (44%)	−0.2
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	7	7.11 school −0.08	Adam Strobridge / Ella Gibson 2.27 Max Sigel / Savannah Miner 2.38 Olin Guck / Olivia Dutra 2.39	27%	2–16 (11%)	−2.9
8	Bentley University Falcons	8	2.57	Andrew Blagden / Rohan Rao Isabel Walchli / Grace Kokkotos Wilfred Hynes / Lucy Butterfield	0%	0–14 (0%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	7.83	8.61	9–11	6.5	+0.78	1.5	12%
3	Tufts University	9.26	9.66	14–6	12.7	+0.40	0.4	33%
1	Brown University	10.07	10.45	17–3	16.0	+0.37	0.2	41%
2	Roger Williams University	9.60	9.87	15–5	14.2	+0.27	0.2	43%
6	Boston College	8.07	7.98	8–10	8.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
5	Yale University	8.78	8.00	9–9	11.5	−0.78	1.4	95%
7	University of Rhode Island	7.11	4.33	2–16	4.9	−2.78	4.1	>99%
8	Bentley University	2.57	-0.43	0–14	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Peter Mcgonagle	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.52	3.30	9–11	6.5	+0.78	1.5	12%
Luke Zylinski	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.87	3.65	9–11	6.5	+0.78	1.5	12%
Adrien Bellanger	Tufts University	2.63	3.03	14–6	12.7	+0.40	0.4	33%
Drew Mastovsky	Roger Williams University	3.31	3.57	15–5	14.2	+0.27	0.2	43%
James O’Gwen	Boston College	2.60	2.52	8–10	8.3	−0.08	0.0	66%
Mathias Reimer	Yale University	2.65	1.87	9–9	11.5	−0.78	1.4	95%
Audrey Foley	Yale University	2.64	1.86	9–9	11.5	−0.78	1.4	95%
Adam Strobridge	University of Rhode Island	2.27	-0.51	2–16	4.9	−2.78	4.1	>99%
Andrew Blagden	Bentley University	0.28	-2.71	0–14	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%
Isabel Walchli	Bentley University	1.40	-1.60	0–14	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%
Wilfred Hynes	Bentley University	0.41	-2.59	0–14	0.0	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
1	2	Tufts University	Brown University	30%	upset
1	3	University of Rhode Island	Bentley University	99%
1	7	Yale University	Boston College	72%
1	8	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
1	9	Roger Williams University	Bentley University	100%
1	13	Tufts University	Yale University	62%
1	14	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	70%
1	15	Brown University	Bentley University	100%
1	19	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	28%	upset
1	20	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	93%
1	21	Tufts University	Boston College	78%
1	25	Yale University	Bentley University	100%
1	26	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	95%
1	27	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
1	31	Roger Williams University	Boston College	83%
1	32	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	84%
1	33	Tufts University	Bentley University	100%
1	37	Brown University	Roger Williams University	62%
1	38	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	44%	upset
1	39	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	89%
1	43	Roger Williams University	Yale University	69%
1	44	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bentley University	99%
1	45	Boston College	Brown University	12%	upset
1	49	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	59%
1	50	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	67%
1	51	Brown University	Yale University	72%
1	55	Boston College	Bentley University	100%
2	4	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	86%
2	5	Brown University	Tufts University	70%
2	6	University of Rhode Island	Bentley University	99%
2	10	Yale University	Boston College	71%
2	11	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
2	12	Roger Williams University	Bentley University	100%
2	16	Tufts University	Yale University	62%
2	17	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	71%
2	18	Brown University	Bentley University	100%
2	22	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Yale University	28%	upset
2	23	Roger Williams University	University of Rhode Island	93%
2	24	Tufts University	Boston College	78%
2	28	Yale University	Bentley University	100%
2	29	Brown University	University of Rhode Island	95%
2	30	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	81%
2	34	Roger Williams University	Boston College	83%
2	35	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	84%
2	36	Tufts University	Bentley University	100%
2	40	Brown University	Roger Williams University	62%
2	41	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Boston College	44%	upset
2	42	Tufts University	University of Rhode Island	89%
2	46	Roger Williams University	Yale University	69%
2	47	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bentley University	99%
2	48	Brown University	Boston College	88%
2	52	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	59%
2	53	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of Rhode Island	67%
2	54	Brown University	Yale University	72%
2	56	Boston College	Bentley University	100%
3	57	Tufts University	Roger Williams University	41%	upset
3	58	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Brown University	9%	upset
3	61	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
3	62	Brown University	Tufts University	70%
3	65	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
3	66	Brown University	Roger Williams University	63%
3	69	Yale University	Boston College	66%
3	70	Boston College	Yale University	34%	upset
3	71	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	84%
3	72	Yale University	University of Rhode Island	84%
3	73	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	73%
3	74	Boston College	University of Rhode Island	73%
4	59	Roger Williams University	Tufts University	59%
4	60	Brown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	91%
4	63	Roger Williams University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	85%
4	64	Brown University	Tufts University	70%
4	67	Tufts University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
4	68	Brown University	Roger Williams University	63%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Bulldogs	Eagles	Rams	Falcons
Brown University Bears	5–2	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	6–1	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–4	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Bentley University Falcons	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Bulldogs	Eagles	Rams	Falcons
Brown University Bears	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Bentley University Falcons	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears	Bulldogs	Eagles	Rams
Brown University Bears	2–1	✕	W	W	L	–	–	–
Roger Williams University Hawks	1–2	L	✕	L	W	–	–	–
Tufts University Jumbos	2–1	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	1–2	W	L	L	✕	–	–	–
Yale University Bulldogs	3–1	–	–	–	–	✕	L	W
Boston College Eagles	3–1	–	–	–	–	W	✕	W
University of Rhode Island Rams	0–4	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bears	Hawks	Jumbos	Bears
Brown University Bears	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Roger Williams University Hawks	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	1–2	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
2	Jumbos	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
3	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Falcons	3-4-6
7	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
8	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
9	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
13	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
14	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
15	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
20	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
21	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
25	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
26	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
27	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
31	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
32	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
33	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
37	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
38	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
39	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
43	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
44	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
45	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
49	Hawks	2-3-5	def.	Jumbos	1-4-6
50	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
51	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
55	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
4	Hawks	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
5	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
6	Rams	1-2-4	def.	Falcons	3-5-6
10	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
11	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
12	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
16	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
17	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
18	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
22	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
23	Hawks	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
24	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Eagles	2-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
29	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
30	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
34	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
36	Jumbos	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Hawks	3-4-5
41	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
42	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
46	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
47	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
48	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
52	Hawks	1-3-5	def.	Jumbos	2-4-6
53	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
54	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
56	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Falcons	4-5-6
57	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Hawks	3-4-6
58	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
61	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
65	Jumbos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
66	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6
69	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
70	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
71	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
72	Bulldogs	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
73	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
74	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
59	Hawks	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
60	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
63	Hawks	1-3-6	def.	Bears	2-4-5
64	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
67	Jumbos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
68	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Hawks	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Brown University	Bears	Charles Gish '28 James Brock '28 Mason Stang '25 Tyler Lamm '28	Marin Soderberg '28 Janelle Li '25 Olivia Miller '25 Reese Corckran '28
Roger Williams University	Hawks	Drew Mastovsky '26 Jack Roman '26 Tristan Mcdonald '28	Maren Matthews '26 Elyssa Franklin '26 Frankie Sparrow '27
Tufts University	Jumbos	Adrien Bellanger '25 Jack Flores '25 John Eastman '25	Margaret Klein '26 Magdelaina Putnam '25 Sean Beaver '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Joey Richardson '28 Luke Zylinski '26 Peter Mcgonagle '25	Julian Henderson '27 Grace Austin '27 Austin White '27
Yale University	Bulldogs	Audrey Foley '28 Dorothy Mendelblatt '28 Mathias Reimer '27	Mary Madaus '25 Clara Díaz Suárez '28 Ariana Borut '27
Boston College	Eagles	Griffin Gigliotti '26 James O’Gwen '27 Rogelio Casellas '28 Ryan Mcgauley '27	Abbie Catalano '28 Sophia Hacket '25 Tor Svendsen '27 Paige Roby '26
University of Rhode Island	Rams	Adam Strobridge '26 Max Sigel '26 Olin Guck '26	Ella Gibson '27 Savannah Miner '28 Olivia Dutra '28
Bentley University	Falcons	Andrew Blagden '28 Isabel Walchli '28 Wilfred Hynes '26	Rohan Rao '25 Grace Kokkotos '27 Lucy Butterfield '28

Conditions — 03/29/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 80% · Pressure 1018.8 hPa

Temperature

38°F

↑ 39°F ↓ 35°F

Feels like 29°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 10.3 kn

Gusts to 24.1 kn

From NE (52°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.6 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1018.8 hPa Rain0.04 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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