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The Lane Trophy Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Boston College Boston College Eagles 9–1
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 8–2
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 7–3
4 Bentley University Bentley University Falcons 4–6
5 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 2–8
6 Fairfield University Fairfield University Stags 0–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,084 team race matches sailed before 2025-10-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 20 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.240 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.36 ± 0.71: a typical event, more orderly than 80% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Boston College
Eagles		18.30
school +0.36		Ryan Mcgauley / Madeline Torrey 3.46
Aidan Cunningham / Kylie Craig
Rogelio Casellas / Paige Roby 2.36		83%7–1 (88%)+0.3
2Tufts University
Jumbos		37.54
school +0.37, home +0.36		Maria Skouloudi / Stefano Chiampo
Crue Ziskind / Cici Priest 2.66
Grant Schmidt / Sarah Leary 2.19		69%6–2 (75%)+0.5
3Brown University
Bears		27.69
school +0.33		Julian Dahiya / Elena Sun 2.48
Gabby Collins / Phoebe Fogarty 2.58
William Baker / Sasha Gordon		72%5–3 (62%)−0.8
4Bentley University
Falcons		42.02
school +0.17		John O'Connell / Isabel Walchli 1.00
Wilfred Hynes / Maren Daly 0.75
Alejandro Cestero / Grace Kokkotos		16%2–6 (25%)+0.7
5Brandeis University
Judges		51.44Myles Hazen / Rebecca Yingling 0.91
Joseph Richter / Dominic Qin 0.45
Miles Laker / Jonah Kozioziemski -0.01		9%0–8 (0%)−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
4Bentley University2.024.022–61.3+2.010.943%
2Tufts University7.548.016–25.5+0.480.250%
1Boston College8.308.727–16.7+0.420.159%
3Brown University7.696.815–35.8−0.880.591%
5Brandeis University1.44-1.560–80.7≤−3.001.2>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
John O'ConnellBentley University1.003.012–61.3+2.010.943%
Wilfred HynesBentley University0.752.762–61.3+2.010.943%
Alejandro CesteroBentley University-0.081.932–61.3+2.010.943%
Maria SkouloudiTufts University1.772.256–25.5+0.480.250%
Aidan CunninghamBoston College2.022.447–16.7+0.420.159%
Joseph RichterBrandeis University0.45-2.550–80.7≤−3.001.2>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Brown UniversityBentley University100%
13Tufts UniversityBoston College30%upset
14Bentley UniversityBrandeis University65%
15Tufts UniversityBrown University45%upset
17Tufts UniversityBrandeis University100%
19Boston CollegeBrown University64%
111Brown UniversityBrandeis University100%
112Boston CollegeBentley University100%
114Tufts UniversityBentley University100%
115Boston CollegeBrandeis University100%
216Boston CollegeBrown University65%
217Tufts UniversityBentley University100%
219Brown UniversityTufts University53%
221Bentley UniversityBrandeis University65%
223Tufts UniversityBrandeis University100%
224Boston CollegeBentley University100%
226Boston CollegeBrandeis University100%
227Brown UniversityBentley University100%
228Boston CollegeTufts University67%
230Brown UniversityBrandeis University100%

Round 1

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosBearsFalconsJudgesStags
Boston College Eagles4–1✕LWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos5–0W✕WWWW
Brown University Bears3–2LL✕WWW
Bentley University Falcons2–3LLL✕WW
Brandeis University Judges1–4LLLL✕W
Fairfield University Stags0–5LLLLL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.EaglesJumbosBearsFalconsJudgesStags
Boston College Eagles5–0✕WWWWW
Tufts University Jumbos3–2L✕LWWW
Brown University Bears4–1LW✕WWW
Bentley University Falcons2–3LLL✕WW
Brandeis University Judges1–4LLLL✕W
Fairfield University Stags0–5LLLLL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Bentley University Falcons 4-5-6
2 Brandeis University Judges 1-4-5 def. Fairfield University Stags 2-3-6
3 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Boston College Eagles 3-4-5
4 Bentley University Falcons 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6
5 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
6 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Fairfield University Stags 4-5-6
7 Tufts University Jumbos 1-3-4 def. Brandeis University Judges 2-5-6
8 Bentley University Falcons 1-3-4 def. Fairfield University Stags 2-5-6
9 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Brown University Bears 3-4-5
10 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Fairfield University Stags 4-5-6
11 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6
12 Boston College Eagles 1-2-4 def. Bentley University Falcons 3-5-6
13 Brown University Bears 1-3-4 def. Fairfield University Stags 2-5-6
14 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Bentley University Falcons 4-5-6
15 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6
16 Boston College Eagles 2-3-4 def. Brown University Bears 1-5-6
17 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Bentley University Falcons 4-5-6
18 Brandeis University Judges 1-4-5 def. Fairfield University Stags 2-3-6
19 Brown University Bears 1-2-4 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-5-6
20 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Fairfield University Stags 4-5-6
21 Bentley University Falcons 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6
22 Brown University Bears 1-2-5 def. Fairfield University Stags 3-4-6
23 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6
24 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Bentley University Falcons 4-5-6
25 Tufts University Jumbos 1-2-3 def. Fairfield University Stags 4-5-6
26 Boston College Eagles 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6
27 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Bentley University Falcons 4-5-6
28 Boston College Eagles 1-2-6 def. Tufts University Jumbos 3-4-5
29 Bentley University Falcons 1-3-4 def. Fairfield University Stags 2-5-6
30 Brown University Bears 1-2-3 def. Brandeis University Judges 4-5-6

Conditions — 10/19/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From SSE (156°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine10.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1016.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →