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Islands Cup

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 1 10–0
2 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 9–1
3 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 1 7–3
4 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 6–4
5 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 3 6–4
6 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 6 5–5
7 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 4–6
8 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 4 3–7
9 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 5 2–8
10 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 2 2–8
11 University of Victoria University of Victoria Vikes 2 1–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 29,944 team race matches sailed before 2026-03-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 17 of 21 matches (81%) with a log-loss of 0.501 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.50 ± 0.39: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 10% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Western Washington University
Vikings 1		17.59
school −0.29, home +0.36		Leif Hauge / Yuri Berebitsky 2.82
Mary D’Arcy / Addison Dunn 2.28
Alexander Turloff / Sofia Brown Patricio 2.38		95%6–0 (100%)+0.3
2University of Washington
Huskies 1		26.18Benjamin Stone / Jaya Wirth 2.35
Lhotse Rowell / Ava Butterfield 2.06
Sammy Farkas / Tillie Jane Leroy 1.70		80%5–1 (83%)+0.2
3University of Victoria
Vikes 1		71.33Maclain Walsworth / Matt Young
Nathan Lemke / Melissa Treacy
Tara Golonka / Eilís Young		7%3–3 (50%)+2.6
4Western Washington University
Vikings 3		44.28
school −0.29, home +0.36		Sam Calpolly / Erica Stavnem
Luca Campbell / Cora Gunderson
Ocean Smith / Alicyn Poulos 1.40		52%3–3 (50%)−0.1
5University of Washington
Huskies 3		34.22Kairo Zimmerman-Goad / Ayana Owen 1.62
Liam Boettcher / Oliver Resnick 1.03
Matthew Huskins / Kirin Dhaka 1.47		52%3–3 (50%)−0.1
6Western Washington University
Vikings 6		53.57
school −0.29, home +0.36		Adam Turloff / Natalie Berg 2.00
Aidan Budelman / Kathryn Drennan 1.28
Calvin Blaser / Hans Scheyer		40%0–6 (0%)−2.4
7University of Washington
Huskies 2		62.64Chase Carson / Jeffrey Kriegh 1.44
Stephanie Seto / Gloria Jorczak 1.17
Allegra Mcalpin / Elisabeth Horst 0–4
Allegra Mcalpin / Natalie Lai 1–1		24%1–5 (17%)−0.4
10Western Washington University
Vikings 2		53.57
school −0.29, home +0.36		Adam Turloff / Natalie Berg 2.00
Aidan Budelman / Kathryn Drennan 1.28
Calvin Blaser / Hans Scheyer		40%0–6 (0%)−2.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
3University of Victoria Vikes 11.334.583–30.4+3.257.0<1%
1Western Washington University Vikings 17.5910.596–05.7≥+3.000.474%
2University of Washington Huskies 16.186.575–14.8+0.400.173%
4Western Washington University Vikings 34.284.153–33.1−0.130.076%
5University of Washington Huskies 34.224.083–33.1−0.140.077%
7University of Washington Huskies 22.641.871–51.4−0.770.291%
10Western Washington University Vikings 23.570.570–62.4≤−3.005.6>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
Maclain WalsworthUniversity of Victoria0.303.553–30.4+3.257.0<1%
Nathan LemkeUniversity of Victoria0.253.513–30.4+3.257.0<1%
Tara GolonkaUniversity of Victoria0.423.673–30.4+3.257.0<1%
Leif HaugeWestern Washington University2.825.826–05.7≥+3.000.474%
Mary D’ArcyWestern Washington University2.285.286–05.7≥+3.000.474%
Alexander TurloffWestern Washington University2.385.386–05.7≥+3.000.474%
Benjamin StoneUniversity of Washington2.352.755–14.8+0.400.173%
Lhotse RowellUniversity of Washington2.062.465–14.8+0.400.173%
Sammy FarkasUniversity of Washington1.702.105–14.8+0.400.173%
Sam CalpollyWestern Washington University1.621.493–33.1−0.130.076%
Luca CampbellWestern Washington University1.090.973–33.1−0.130.076%
Ocean SmithWestern Washington University1.401.273–33.1−0.130.076%
Kairo Zimmerman-GoadUniversity of Washington1.621.483–33.1−0.140.077%
Liam BoettcherUniversity of Washington1.030.883–33.1−0.140.077%
Matthew HuskinsUniversity of Washington1.471.333–33.1−0.140.077%
Chase CarsonUniversity of Washington1.440.671–51.4−0.770.291%
Stephanie SetoUniversity of Washington1.170.401–51.4−0.770.291%
Allegra McalpinUniversity of Washington-0.04-0.811–51.4−0.770.291%
Adam TurloffWestern Washington University2.00-1.000–62.4≤−3.005.6>99%
Aidan BudelmanWestern Washington University1.28-1.720–62.4≤−3.005.6>99%
Calvin BlaserWestern Washington University0.17-2.830–62.4≤−3.005.6>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11University of Washington Huskies 1University of Washington Huskies 297%
12University of Washington Huskies 3University of Victoria Vikes 196%
14Western Washington University Vikings 3Western Washington University Vikings 266%
17University of Washington Huskies 3University of Washington Huskies 284%
19Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 298%
112University of Washington Huskies 1University of Washington Huskies 388%
113University of Victoria Vikes 1University of Washington Huskies 219%upset
115Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Victoria Vikes 1100%
117Western Washington University Vikings 1Western Washington University Vikings 397%
121University of Washington Huskies 1University of Victoria Vikes 199%
123Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Washington Huskies 397%
124University of Victoria Vikes 1Western Washington University Vikings 211%upset
129Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Washington Huskies 299%
130University of Washington Huskies 3Western Washington University Vikings 266%
131University of Victoria Vikes 1Western Washington University Vikings 36%upset
136University of Washington Huskies 2Western Washington University Vikings 227%upset
137Western Washington University Vikings 3University of Washington Huskies 351%
141Western Washington University Vikings 3University of Washington Huskies 283%
142Western Washington University Vikings 1University of Washington Huskies 181%
146University of Washington Huskies 1Western Washington University Vikings 293%
150University of Washington Huskies 1Western Washington University Vikings 386%

Round 1

TeamRec.11133624522
Western Washington University Vikings 128–32✕LL✕L✕L✕✕✕L
University of Washington Huskies 119–11W✕WW✕W✕WWWW
University of Victoria Vikes 18–12WL✕WLWLWWW✕
Western Washington University Vikings 328–32✕LL✕L✕L✕✕✕L
University of Washington Huskies 319–11W✕WW✕W✕WWWW
Western Washington University Vikings 628–32✕LL✕L✕L✕✕✕L
University of Washington Huskies 219–11W✕WW✕W✕WWWW
Western Washington University Vikings 428–32✕LL✕L✕L✕✕✕L
Western Washington University Vikings 528–32✕LL✕L✕L✕✕✕L
Western Washington University Vikings 228–32✕LL✕L✕L✕✕✕L
University of Victoria Vikes 28–12WL✕WLWLWWW✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 4-5-6
2 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 1 3-5-6
3 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 4-5-6
4 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 3-5-6
5 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-4-6
6 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
7 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 3-4-5
8 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-2-3 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 4-5-6
9 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 4-5-6
10 Western Washington University Vikings 3 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-5-6
11 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-3-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-4-6
12 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 3-5-6
13 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-5-6
14 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 3-5-6
15 Western Washington University Vikings 1 2-3-5 def. University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-4-6
16 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 2-5-6
17 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 4-5-6
18 Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 2-5-6
19 Western Washington University Vikings 3 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-5-6
20 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-4-5
21 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 1 3-4-5
22 University of Washington Huskies 2 1-2-3 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 4-5-6
23 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 4-5-6
24 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-5-6
25 University of Victoria Vikes 2 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-4-5
26 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-5-6
27 Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 1-5-6
28 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 3-4-6 DNF
29 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 4-5-6
30 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 4-5-6
31 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 2-5-6
32 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 3-5-6
33 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 3-5-6
34 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-4-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-3-6
35 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-3 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 4-5-6
36 University of Washington Huskies 2 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 3-4-5
37 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-2-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 3-4-5
38 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 4-5-6
39 Western Washington University Vikings 5 1-2-4 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 3-5-6
40 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 3-5-6
41 Western Washington University Vikings 3 1-3-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-4-5
42 Western Washington University Vikings 1 1-2-3 def. University of Washington Huskies 1 4-5-6
43 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-5-6
44 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 3-4-6
45 Western Washington University Vikings 6 1-2-6 def. University of Victoria Vikes 2 3-4-5
46 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 2 2-5-6
47 Western Washington University Vikings 4 1-3-6 def. University of Washington Huskies 2 2-4-5
48 University of Washington Huskies 3 1-2-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 3-5-6
49 University of Victoria Vikes 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 4-5-6
50 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 3 3-4-5
51 University of Washington Huskies 2 1-3-4 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 2-5-6
52 Western Washington University Vikings 6 2-3-4 def. University of Washington Huskies 3 1-5-6
53 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-5 def. Western Washington University Vikings 4 3-4-6
54 University of Washington Huskies 2 1-2-6 def. Western Washington University Vikings 6 3-4-5
55 University of Washington Huskies 1 1-2-3 def. Western Washington University Vikings 5 4-5-6

Conditions — 03/28/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 75%  ·  Pressure 1020.9 hPa

Temperature

46°F
↑ 48°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 9.8 kn
Gusts to 21.0 kn
From SW (230°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine2.9 hrs Humidity75% Pressure1020.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Western Washington — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Western Washington in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Western Washington by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (23 labelled fleet-race days at Western Washington).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →