University of Washington '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.52 (fleet 2.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 7–5 (58%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 7–5 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 7–5 against 6.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Islands Cup | skipper | 1.72 | 1.27 | 3–3 | 3.4 | −0.45 | 0.1 | 84% |
| 2026-02-21 | Jeff Mixdorf | skipper | 1.36 | 2.40 | 4–2 | 3.0 | +1.03 | 0.7 | 30% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.2 | 2.33 |
| NW Frosh Soph | Crew | B | 4 | 6.0 | +0.00 |
| Cascadia Cup JV | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.7 | 1.91 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Rainier Cup JV | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.2 | 1.40 |
| North Designate | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | -2.34 |
| Jeff Mixdorf | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Islands Cup | Skipper | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Gorge Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.0 | 1.71 |
| Cactus Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.2 | 2.68 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Outlaw | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.8 | 0.85 |
| North-North | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 1.11 |
| Fall PCC JV | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.2 | 2.00 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
