| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Western Washington University | Vikings 2 | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
University of Washington | Huskies 2 | 4–2 |
| 3 | |
University of Washington | Huskies 1 | 4–2 |
| 4 | |
University of Washington | Huskies 3 | 3–3 |
| 5 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 3 | 3–3 |
| 6 | |
Western Washington University | Vikings 1 | 1–5 |
| 7 |  |
University of Oregon | Ducks | 1–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 28,152 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 21 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.753 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.96 ± 0.40: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 5.11 | 6.58 | 5–1 | 3.9 | +1.47 | 1.1 | 28% |
| 2 | University of Washington Huskies 2 | 4.29 | 5.40 | 4–2 | 2.9 | +1.12 | 0.9 | 27% |
| 4 | University of Washington Huskies 3 | 3.47 | 4.58 | 3–3 | 1.8 | +1.11 | 0.9 | 24% |
| 3 | University of Washington Huskies 1 | 5.11 | 5.21 | 4–2 | 3.9 | +0.10 | 0.0 | 68% |
| 7 | University of Oregon Ducks | 2.77 | 2.73 | 1–5 | 1.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 6 | Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 3.44 | 2.50 | 1–5 | 1.8 | −0.94 | 0.5 | 92% |
| 5 | Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 7.04 | 4.01 | 3–3 | 5.6 | −3.03 | 6.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | Ducks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Western Washington University Vikings 2 | 9–9 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 2 | 11–7 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 1 | 11–7 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | W |
| University of Washington Huskies 3 | 11–7 | L | ✕ | ✕ | ✕ | L | L | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 3 | 9–9 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| Western Washington University Vikings 1 | 9–9 | ✕ | W | W | W | ✕ | ✕ | W |
| University of Oregon Ducks | 1–5 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Huskies 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 1-5-6 DNF |
| 4 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Vikings 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Vikings 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Ducks | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 1-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies 3 | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Vikings 3 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Huskies 3 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Ducks | 2-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Vikings 2 | 3-4-6 | def. | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-5 RAF |
| 15 | |
Vikings 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Huskies 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Huskies 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Ducks | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Huskies 1 | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Vikings 3 | 1-4-6 DNF |
| 19 | |
Huskies 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings 1 | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 20 | |
Vikings 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Huskies 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Huskies 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ducks | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
