| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 6–2 |
| 2 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 6–2 |
| 3 |  |
Roger Williams University | Hawks | 6–2 |
| 4 |  |
Dartmouth College | Big Green | 2–6 |
| 5 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 30,349 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 20 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.423 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.33 ± 0.45: a typical event, more orderly than 78% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Roger Williams University | 8.78 | 10.16 | 6–2 | 3.9 | +1.38 | 2.0 | 10% |
| 1 | Harvard University | 9.59 | 10.12 | 6–2 | 5.3 | +0.52 | 0.3 | 45% |
| 2 | Brown University | 9.93 | 9.95 | 6–2 | 6.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 4 | Dartmouth College | 8.82 | 7.25 | 2–6 | 4.2 | −1.57 | 2.3 | 99% |
| 5 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges | 6.79 | 3.79 | 0–8 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 0.9 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Bears | Hawks | Green | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 2–2 | L | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–1 | L | W | ✕ | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Crimson | Bears | Hawks | Green | Statesmen | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard University Crimson | 2–2 | ✕ | L | L | W | W |
| Brown University Bears | 4–0 | W | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Roger Williams University Hawks | 3–1 | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Dartmouth College Big Green | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 0–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Hawks | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bears | 2-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Big Green | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Hawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Crimson | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 3-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Big Green | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Big Green | 2-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hawks | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Hawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Bears | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Crimson | 1-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Big Green | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Hawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-3-6 |
| 20 | |
Big Green | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Statesmen | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Harvard University | Crimson | Kate Danielson '28 Sophia Montgomery '25 Zoey Ziskind '27 |
Katherine Shin '27 Amelie Zucker '28 Hanah Youn '28 Peyton Hadfield '27 |
|
Brown University | Bears | Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27 Sidney Moyer '27 |
Reese Corckran '28 Gabby Collins '28 Katherine Majette '27 Sidney Moyer '27 Michelle Kaneti '29 |
|
Roger Williams University | Hawks | Lucy Meagher '27 Maren Matthews '26 Tavia Smith '27 |
Maggie Fleming '27 Alexandra Chigas '26 Elyssa Franklin '26 Mackenzie Speece '28 |
|
Dartmouth College | Big Green | Alders Kulynych-Irvin '29 Charlotte West '28 Olivia Drulard '27 |
Grace Patterson '29 Blake Oberbauer '29 Sudi Zhao '26 |
|
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | Deana Fedulova '28 Lauren Campbell '28 Moira Padilla '29 Sabrina Starck '28 |
Ella Donaldson '27 Keelyn Brink '29 Reilly Roedel '27 Olivia Wilkins '28 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
