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Corpus Christi Spring Open Team Race

# SchoolTeam Rec.
1 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 12–0
2 Rice University Rice University Owls 4–8
3 Texas A&M University Texas A&M University Aggies 2–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,152 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.411 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.92 ± 0.53: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 4% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

PlaceSchool Pred. Strength Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) Pred. win % Recordvs forecast
1Tulane University
Green Wave		19.04
school −0.06		John Wood / Charlotte Casey 2.96
Matheo Graham-Capasso / Parker Kumler 3.14
Ryan Ehnot / Sophia Adams 2.81		100%12–0 (100%)+0.1
2Rice University
Owls		32.65
school −0.30		Adeline Thompson / Oliver Zhu 1.46
Lewis Forrest / Naayaa Mehta 0.77
Leo Marek / Anna Xia 0.49		9%4–8 (33%)+2.9
3Texas A&M University
Aggies		24.14Kate Hennig / Evelyn Dubois 1.11
Jack Riley / Sydney Krahulik 1.94
Sofia Pando / Menya Bird 1.04		41%2–10 (17%)−3.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

PlaceSchoolStrength Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
1Tulane University9.0412.0412–011.9≥+3.000.195%
2Rice University2.654.794–81.1+2.144.81%
3Texas A&M University4.141.942–105.0−2.215.0>99%

By skipper

SkipperSchoolValue Perf.RecordExp.
wins		ΔSurprise
(bits)		P(this good
or better)
John WoodTulane University2.965.9612–011.9≥+3.000.195%
Matheo Graham-CapassoTulane University3.146.1412–011.9≥+3.000.195%
Ryan EhnotTulane University2.815.8012–011.9≥+3.000.195%
Adeline ThompsonRice University1.463.604–81.1+2.144.81%
Lewis ForrestRice University0.772.914–81.1+2.144.81%
Leo MarekRice University0.492.634–81.1+2.144.81%
Kate HennigTexas A&M University1.11-1.102–105.0−2.215.0>99%
Jack RileyTexas A&M University1.94-0.262–105.0−2.215.0>99%
Sofia PandoTexas A&M University1.04-1.172–105.0−2.215.0>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd#WinnerLoser P(winner)
11Rice UniversityTexas A&M University16%upset
12Tulane UniversityRice University100%
13Tulane UniversityTexas A&M University99%
24Rice UniversityTexas A&M University17%upset
25Tulane UniversityRice University100%
26Tulane UniversityTexas A&M University99%
37Rice UniversityTexas A&M University18%upset
38Tulane UniversityRice University100%
39Tulane UniversityTexas A&M University99%
410Texas A&M UniversityRice University81%
411Tulane UniversityRice University100%
412Tulane UniversityTexas A&M University99%
513Texas A&M UniversityRice University81%
514Tulane UniversityRice University100%
515Tulane UniversityTexas A&M University99%
616Rice UniversityTexas A&M University19%upset
617Tulane UniversityRice University100%
618Tulane UniversityTexas A&M University99%

Round 1

TeamRec.WaveOwlsAggies
Tulane University Green Wave2–0✕WW
Rice University Owls1–1L✕W
Texas A&M University Aggies0–2LL✕

Round 2

TeamRec.WaveOwlsAggies
Tulane University Green Wave2–0✕WW
Rice University Owls1–1L✕W
Texas A&M University Aggies0–2LL✕

Round 3

TeamRec.WaveOwlsAggies
Tulane University Green Wave2–0✕WW
Rice University Owls1–1L✕W
Texas A&M University Aggies0–2LL✕

Round 4

TeamRec.WaveOwlsAggies
Tulane University Green Wave2–0✕WW
Rice University Owls0–2L✕L
Texas A&M University Aggies1–1LW✕

Round 5

TeamRec.WaveOwlsAggies
Tulane University Green Wave2–0✕WW
Rice University Owls0–2L✕L
Texas A&M University Aggies1–1LW✕

Round 6

TeamRec.WaveOwlsAggies
Tulane University Green Wave2–0✕WW
Rice University Owls1–1L✕W
Texas A&M University Aggies0–2LL✕
# Winner Loser Pos.
1 Rice University Owls 1-2-6 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 3-4-5
2 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
3 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 4-5-6
4 Rice University Owls 1-3-6 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 2-4-5
5 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
6 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 4-5-6
7 Rice University Owls 1-2-6 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 3-4-5
8 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
9 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 4-5-6
10 Texas A&M University Aggies 1-2-4 def. Rice University Owls 3-5-6
11 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
12 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 4-5-6
13 Texas A&M University Aggies 1-2-4 def. Rice University Owls 3-5-6
14 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
15 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 4-5-6
16 Rice University Owls 1-3-4 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 2-5-6
17 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Rice University Owls 4-5-6
18 Tulane University Green Wave 1-2-3 def. Texas A&M University Aggies 4-5-6

Conditions — 02/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 63%  ·  Pressure 1015.1 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 84°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 79°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 12.5 kn
Gusts to 27.6 kn
From NNE (26°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover38% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity63% Pressure1015.1 hPa Rain0.05 in

What this breeze does at Texas A&M C. Christ — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Texas A&M C. Christ in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Texas A&M C. Christ by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Texas A&M C. Christ, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →