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SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 R15 R16 TOT
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Ted Green '13 1 8 3 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 4 1 4 3 6 3 46
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Evan Siepert '13 2 3 2 11 4 3 3 7 4 1 5 4 5 2 1 2 59
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Matthew Schoene '15 3 1 5 2 2 4 8 5 2 10 1 6 3 7 3 1 63
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Joseph Mignon '14 9 7 4 4 3 1 6 1 9 3 6 2 2 6 4 4 71
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Ike Babbitt '11 4 6 10 10 9 5 7 4 3 7 2 3 1 5 2 6 84
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Alex Wood '13 8 5 7 3 5 9 2 12 12 2 3 5 7 1 7 9 97
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Arthur Bailey Iv '14 10 2 1 6 7 7 11 2 7 5 9 8 10 4 5 5 99
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges John Darby '14 6 9 11 5 8 8 12 9 13 11 11 7 6 12 8 10 146
Cornell University Cornell University Wade Christensen '14 7 14 8 8 10 10 13 6 6 9 10 13 12 11 9 11 157
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Alex Butti '12 11 16 6 9 11 6 4 11 10 8 8 9 8 9 15 16 157
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Tyler Steel '13 13 11 9 13 15 12 5 10 11 6 7 10 11 10 16 7 166
Cornell University Cornell University Michael Rivlin '13 14 4 15 7 6 11 10 8 5 16 13 11 9 15 11 14 169
Cornell University Cornell University Nikiforos Delatolas '13 15 12 13 12 12 14 9 13 8 13 12 12 13 8 12 8 186
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Scott Lubliner '13 5 10 14 14 14 16 15 16 14 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 215
Columbia University Columbia University William Ford '13 12 13 12 15 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 15 15 13 10 13 215
Hamilton College Hamilton College Julie Webster '11 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 15 16 12 16 16 16 16 14 15 246

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  16 boats · 16 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Ted Green '13SUNY Maritime College Privateers 116/162.143.73+1.5956th → 93rd10.22%2.9 / 6.3
2Evan Siepert '13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 116/161.403.23+1.8234th → 85th13.62%3.7 / 8.0
3Matthew Schoene '15SUNY Maritime College Privateers 216/161.593.10+1.5139th → 83rd10.01%3.9 / 7.5
4Joseph Mignon '14Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 316/161.13u2.92+1.7925th → 79th13.72%4.4 / 8.6
5Ike Babbitt '11Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons16/162.022.52+0.5053rd → 65th1.428%5.2 / 6.6
6Alex Wood '13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 216/160.172.26+2.099th → 59th18.22%6.1 / 10.8
7Arthur Bailey Iv '14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 316/161.402.21+0.8034th → 58th3.422%6.2 / 8.0
8John Darby '14Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 216/162.221.26−0.9658th → 30th7.096%9.1 / 6.1
9Alex Butti '12Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 116/161.710.79−0.9243rd → 18th5.487%9.8 / 7.3
9Wade Christensen '14Cornell University Big Red 216/160.261.26+1.0110th → 30th5.335%9.8 / 10.6
11Tyler Steel '13SUNY Maritime College Privateers 316/161.860.80−1.0647th → 18th8.194%10.4 / 7.0
12Michael Rivlin '13Cornell University Big Red 116/161.120.66−0.4625th → 17th1.380%10.6 / 8.7
13Nikiforos Delatolas '13Cornell University Big Red 316/161.11u0.69−0.4225th → 17th1.291%11.6 / 8.7
14Scott Lubliner '13SUNY Maritime College Privateers 416/161.02-0.23−1.2623rd → 4th10.899%13.4 / 8.9
14William Ford '13Columbia University16/16-0.310.24+0.553rd → 10th1.781%13.4 / 11.7
16Julie Webster '11Hamilton College16/160.08-1.61−1.687th → 1st10.7>99%15.4 / 10.9

Conditions — 09/25/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 46%  ·  Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

82°F
↑ 86°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 81°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.8 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From WSW (248°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover12% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity46% Pressure1009.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →