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New England Women's Single

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT
Brown University Brown University Elizabeth Barry '11 1 1 3 3 1 1 5 1 5 2 8 5 3 7 46
Boston College Boston College Anne Haeger '12 3 4 1 11 2 6 1 4 4 4 6 1 5 2 54
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Krysta Rohde '11 2 9 7 1 4 3 6 12 2 3 1 3 1 3 57
Yale University Yale University Emily Billing '13 4 2 6 4 6 5 3 6 3 1 3 2 9 4 58
Yale University Yale University Claire Dennis '13 5 10 10 6 3 2 4 5 1 5 5 4 6 1 67
Connecticut College Connecticut College Maggie Shea '11 7 5 5 10 5 8 9 2 7 6 2 6 2 6 80
Brown University Brown University Sky Adams '14 8 3 4 8 DSQ 13 2 3 6 7 10 10 7 5 101
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Reguli Granger '12 9 6 2 5 9 7 7 7 8 11 7 8 8 9 103
Boston College Boston College Briana Provancha '12 6 7 8 7 12 4 10 11 9 9 9 11 11 10 124
Boston College Boston College Carolyn Naughton '14 10 8 11 13 7 9 13 13 11 8 4 7 4 8 126
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Massachusetts Institute of Technology Hanna Vincent '14 RAF 13 9 2 11 11 8 9 10 10 11 9 10 11 139
Tufts University Tufts University Mariel Marchand '13 13 11 13 14 10 10 11 8 12 12 12 13 12 12 163
Tufts University Tufts University Renã©E Gagnã© '12 12 12 14 9 8 12 12 10 13 13 13 12 13 13 166
Brown University Brown University Jessica Claflin '13 11 14 12 12 RAF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 14 DNS DNS 198

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  14 boats · 14 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Elizabeth Barry '11Brown University Bears 114/142.383.66+1.2861st → 93rd6.24%3.3 / 6.4
2Anne Haeger '12Boston College Eagles 114/142.823.28+0.4577th → 86th0.916%3.9 / 5.4
3Krysta Rohde '11U. S. Coast Guard Academy14/141.933.09+1.1549th → 83rd5.25%4.1 / 7.2
4Emily Billing '13Yale University Elis14/142.023.25+1.2253rd → 85th6.03%4.1 / 7.1
5Claire Dennis '13Yale University Bulldogs14/142.332.91+0.5960th → 79th1.617%4.8 / 6.4
6Maggie Shea '11Connecticut College14/142.162.57+0.4156th → 67th0.831%5.7 / 6.9
7Sky Adams '14Brown University Bears 214/141.842.06+0.2246th → 53rd0.245%7.2 / 7.5
8Reguli Granger '12Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers14/140.662.08+1.4217th → 54th8.311%7.4 / 9.8
9Briana Provancha '12Boston College Eagles 214/142.241.32−0.9259th → 31st5.186%8.9 / 6.7
10Carolyn Naughton '14Boston College Eagles 314/141.511.24−0.2738th → 29th0.370%9.0 / 8.1
11Hanna Vincent '14Massachusetts Institute of Technology Beavers14/141.171.32+0.1427th → 31st0.174%9.9 / 8.9
12Mariel Marchand '13Tufts University Jumbos14/141.390.46−0.9334th → 13th4.995%11.6 / 8.4
13Renã©E Gagnã© '12Tufts University Jumbalaya14/141.54-0.15−1.6938th → 4th13.798%11.9 / 8.2
14Jessica Claflin '13Brown University Bears 314/141.55-0.07−1.6239th → 5th4.7>99%14.1 / 8.1

Conditions — 10/02/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 58%  ·  Pressure 1013.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 64°F   ↓ 54°F
Feels like 58°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.8 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 18.1 kn
From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity58% Pressure1013.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Connecticut College — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Connecticut College in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Connecticut College by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (51 labelled fleet-race days at Connecticut College).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →