SAISA Singlehanded

HostCharleston
Date10/23/2010
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	69
2	College of Charleston	Erik Bowers '12	77
3	University of South Florida	Zachary Marks '11	78
4	College of Charleston	Zeke Horowitz '12	82
5	College of Charleston	Cameron Hall '13	85
6	Eckerd College	Hidde Van Der Molen '14	87
7	University of South Florida	Will Stocke '13	96
8	College of Charleston	Cole Allsopp '11	123
9	Eckerd College	Niklas Anderson '15	135
10	University of Miami	Matt Jaykus '14	147
11	University of North Carolina	John Mellnik '12	148
12	University of South Florida	Bryan White '13	167
13	Eckerd College	Erik Brydges '14	204
14	Clemson University	Drew Lisicki '12	217
15	Eckerd College	Robert Savoie '14	219
16	Clemson University	Adam Matyi-Szabo '14	243

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT
University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	5	2	4	6	6	8	5	1	5	15	2	1	3	2	1	3	69
College of Charleston	Erik Bowers '12	1	5	12	3	5	6	2	7	9	5	5	2	2	6	3	4	77
University of South Florida	Zachary Marks '11	3	9	2	4	1	4	8	2	11	1	9	8	1	1	8	6	78
College of Charleston	Zeke Horowitz '12	8	8	1	1	2	OCS	3	11	6	2	1	4	4	5	2	7	82
College of Charleston	Cameron Hall '13	4	6	3	8	7	1	7	9	1	9	6	3	8	7	5	1	85
Eckerd College	Hidde Van Der Molen '14	7	10	5	2	4	2	12	5	3	6	4	10	5	3	4	5	87
University of South Florida	Will Stocke '13	9	1	10	5	3	7	1	8	7	12	3	5	6	4	7	8	96
College of Charleston	Cole Allsopp '11	10	7	7	9	8	5	6	10	2	3	11	6	13	8	6	12	123
Eckerd College	Niklas Anderson '15	2	11	9	7	10	3	4	13	14	8	7	7	10	10	10	10	135
University of Miami	Matt Jaykus '14	11	4	8	12	11	10	10	12	10	4	13	11	9	11	9	2	147
University of North Carolina	John Mellnik '12	6	3	6	10	9	12	9	6	4	10	12	9	12	13	14	13	148
University of South Florida	Bryan White '13	13	12	13	14	12	9	15	4	8	7	10	12	7	9	11	11	167
Eckerd College	Erik Brydges '14	15	14	14	13	13	11	13	15	12	11	8	13	16	12	15	9	204
Clemson University	Drew Lisicki '12	14	13	11	16	14	15	16	3	13	13	16	15	15	15	13	15	217
Eckerd College	Robert Savoie '14	12	16	15	11	15	13	11	14	15	14	14	16	11	14	12	16	219
Clemson University	Adam Matyi-Szabo '14	16	15	16	15	16	14	14	16	16	16	15	14	14	16	16	14	243

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 16 boats · 16 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	David Hernandez '12	University of Miami Hurricanes 1	16/16	2.50	3.10	+0.60	64th → 84th	1.7	7%	4.3 / 6.7
2	Erik Bowers '12	College of Charleston Cougars 2	16/16	2.51	3.10	+0.59	64th → 84th	1.8	19%	4.8 / 6.7
3	Zachary Marks '11	University of South Florida Bulls 1	16/16	2.69	2.96	+0.28	71st → 81st	0.4	26%	4.9 / 6.3
4	Zeke Horowitz '12	College of Charleston Cougars 1	16/16	2.77	3.27	+0.51	74th → 86th	1.2	34%	5.1 / 6.2
5	Cameron Hall '13	College of Charleston Cougars 3	16/16	2.25	2.93	+0.69	59th → 79th	2.5	20%	5.3 / 7.3
6	Hidde Van Der Molen '14	Eckerd College Tritons 4	16/16	1.97	2.88	+0.91	51st → 78th	4.2	13%	5.4 / 8.0
7	Will Stocke '13	University of South Florida Bulls 2	16/16	2.35	2.68	+0.33	60th → 71st	0.6	32%	6.0 / 7.1
8	Cole Allsopp '11	College of Charleston Cougars 4	16/16	1.12^u	2.15	+1.03	25th → 56th	5.3	16%	7.7 / 9.9
9	Niklas Anderson '15	Eckerd College Tritons 2	16/16	1.64	1.89	+0.25	40th → 48th	0.4	46%	8.4 / 8.7
10	Matt Jaykus '14	University of Miami Hurricanes 2	16/16	1.08	1.73	+0.66	25th → 43rd	2.4	36%	9.2 / 10.0
11	John Mellnik '12	University of North Carolina	16/16	1.01	1.58	+0.58	23rd → 39th	1.8	33%	9.2 / 10.2
12	Bryan White '13	University of South Florida Bulls 3	16/16	1.93	1.24	−0.69	49th → 29th	3.4	86%	10.4 / 8.0
13	Erik Brydges '14	Eckerd College Tritons 3	16/16	0.95	0.59	−0.35	22nd → 15th	0.8	87%	12.8 / 10.3
14	Drew Lisicki '12	Clemson University Tigers 1	16/16	1.03	-0.05	−1.08	24th → 5th	6.9	96%	13.6 / 10.1
15	Robert Savoie '14	Eckerd College Tritons 1	16/16	1.41	0.05	−1.36	34th → 6th	12.4	99%	13.7 / 9.3
16	Adam Matyi-Szabo '14	Clemson University Tigers 2	16/16	0.49	-0.77	−1.25	14th → 1st	7.2	>99%	15.2 / 11.2

Conditions — 10/23/2010 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 57% · Pressure 1024.8 hPa

Temperature

69°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 56°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.0 kn

avg · max 7.7 kn

Gusts to 16.3 kn

From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1024.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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