Laser North

HostKings Point
Date09/10/2011
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Queen's University	Evert Mclaughlin '12	53
2	Queen's University	Matthew Ryder '12	64
3	Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	65
4	SUNY Maritime College	Randall Hartranft '12	92
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Timothy Zacher '13	102
6	SUNY Maritime College	Matthew Schoene '15	112
7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Robert Boger '13	137
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Arthur Bailey Iv '14	150
9	SUNY Maritime College	Mike Carr '15	151
10	Queen's University	Austin Stein '17	151
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	John Darby '14	154
12	Webb Institute	Dylan Froriep '15	186
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Alex Butti '12	192
14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Andrew Bates '15	208
15	Cornell University	Michael Rivlin '13	229
16	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Potter Hodgson '13	237
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Peter Holz '15	245
18	Cornell University	Nick Balta '15	261
19	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Richard Romer '15	264
20	Webb Institute	Satchel Douglas '15	307

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT
Queen's University	Evert Mclaughlin '12	7	1	4	2	3	4	1	1	1	1	14	6	1	2	3	2	53
Queen's University	Matthew Ryder '12	3	3	5	10	10	2	4	2	2	8	1	3	3	3	2	3	64
Cornell University	Philip Alley '12	2	4	1	3	4	1	2	7	7	2	7	10	2	5	7	1	65
SUNY Maritime College	Randall Hartranft '12	6	2	2	1	15	7	5	6	5	5	3	4	17	4	5	5	92
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Timothy Zacher '13	5	11	3	9	7	5	9	10	3	10	4	2	11	8	1	4	102
SUNY Maritime College	Matthew Schoene '15	4	8	8	5	1	10	3	11	18	6	5	7	4	9	6	7	112
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Robert Boger '13	1	6	13	11	6	3	17	9	4	13	11	1	13	11	8	10	137
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Arthur Bailey Iv '14	9	9	10	4	9	9	6	13	8	15	9	9	6	13	12	9	150
SUNY Maritime College	Mike Carr '15	12	12	11	6	2	6	8	3	10	12	10	17	7	7	14	14	151
Queen's University	Austin Stein '17	17	10	9	8	19	17	7	5	16	3	6	11	5	1	11	6	151
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	John Darby '14	14	5	12	13	5	12	15	4	11	4	2	8	8	12	17	12	154
Webb Institute	Dylan Froriep '15	16	7	6	14	11	15	11	18	9	14	8	5	9	18	10	15	186
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Alex Butti '12	11	14	7	16	13	11	16	12	14	9	12	15	10	6	13	13	192
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Andrew Bates '15	8	19	16	18	17	8	12	8	15	7	15	13	12	17	15	8	208
Cornell University	Michael Rivlin '13	13	17	15	12	16	19	14	16	6	20	13	12	20	10	9	17	229
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Potter Hodgson '13	15	15	14	17	18	13	10	19	13	18	18	19	19	14	4	11	237
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Peter Holz '15	19	13	18	7	8	14	18	20	20	11	17	16	14	16	16	18	245
Cornell University	Nick Balta '15	10	16	17	15	14	16	19	14	17	19	19	14	18	15	19	19	261
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Richard Romer '15	18	18	19	20	12	18	13	15	12	17	16	18	15	19	18	16	264
Webb Institute	Satchel Douglas '15	20	20	20	19	20	20	20	17	19	16	20	20	16	20	20	20	307

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 20 boats · 16 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Evert Mclaughlin '12	Queen's University Gaels 3	16/16	1.15^u	3.83	+2.68	25th → 94th	25.4	<1%	3.3 / 11.2
2	Matthew Ryder '12	Queen's University Gaels 1	16/16	1.15^u	3.59	+2.44	25th → 92nd	22.7	<1%	4.0 / 11.3
3	Philip Alley '12	Cornell University Big Red 1	16/16	2.09	3.52	+1.42	55th → 91st	9.1	1%	4.1 / 8.5
4	Randall Hartranft '12	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	16/16	2.23	2.68	+0.45	58th → 71st	1.1	22%	5.8 / 8.0
5	Timothy Zacher '13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	16/16	2.07	2.69	+0.61	54th → 71st	2.1	16%	6.4 / 8.5
6	Matthew Schoene '15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	16/16	1.58	2.41	+0.83	39th → 61st	3.6	10%	7.0 / 10.0
7	Robert Boger '13	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	16/16	1.49	2.07	+0.59	37th → 53rd	2.0	29%	8.6 / 10.3
8	Arthur Bailey Iv '14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	16/16	1.49	2.01	+0.52	38th → 52nd	1.6	40%	9.4 / 10.2
9	Austin Stein '17	Queen's University Gaels 2	16/16	-0.01	1.73	+1.74	6th → 43rd	13.5	4%	9.4 / 14.4
9	Mike Carr '15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 3	16/16	1.69	1.89	+0.20	42nd → 48th	0.3	49%	9.4 / 9.7
11	John Darby '14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	16/16	2.22	1.76	−0.46	58th → 43rd	1.5	78%	9.6 / 8.1
12	Dylan Froriep '15	Webb Institute Webb Institute 2	16/16	1.04	1.40	+0.36	24th → 34th	0.8	52%	11.6 / 11.5
13	Alex Butti '12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3	16/16	1.80	1.45	−0.35	44th → 35th	0.9	83%	12.0 / 9.4
14	Andrew Bates '15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 3	16/16	1.28	1.11	−0.17	30th → 25th	0.2	75%	13.0 / 10.9
15	Michael Rivlin '13	Cornell University Big Red 2	16/16	1.12	0.67	−0.44	25th → 17th	1.2	86%	14.3 / 11.4
16	Potter Hodgson '13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	16/16	1.55	0.65	−0.90	39th → 17th	6.3	95%	14.8 / 10.1
17	Peter Holz '15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4	16/16	0.88	0.47	−0.41	21st → 13th	1.1	88%	15.3 / 12.0
18	Nick Balta '15	Cornell University Big Red 3	16/16	0.91	0.49	−0.42	21st → 14th	1.3	95%	16.3 / 11.9
19	Richard Romer '15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 4	16/16	1.13	0.37	−0.76	25th → 11th	4.2	98%	16.5 / 11.3
20	Satchel Douglas '15	Webb Institute Webb Institute 1	16/16	1.07^u	-1.68	−2.75	25th → 1st	33.9	>99%	19.2 / 11.5

Conditions — 09/10/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 73% · Pressure 1013.1 hPa

Temperature

74°F

↑ 77°F ↓ 70°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.3 kn

avg · max 5.6 kn

Gusts to 9.7 kn

From ENE (63°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity73% Pressure1013.1 hPa Rain0.11 in

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu