SAISA Men's Singlehanded Championships

HostJacksonville
Date10/01/2011
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	College of Charleston	Zeke Horowitz '12	32
2	University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	35
3	University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	46
4	University of Miami	Nicholas Voss '12	48
5	College of Charleston	Erik Bowers '12	56
6	College of Charleston	William Sands '15	59
7	College of Charleston	Brendan Faria '13	67
8	Eckerd College	Jeff Hahl '12	85
9	University of Miami	Matt Jaykus '14	92
10	University of South Florida	Bryan White '13	94
11	Emory University	Bill Kelly '15	113
12	University of South Florida	Matthew Whitehead '15	118
13	Eckerd College	Erik Brydges '14	123
14	Eckerd College	Andrew Krellenstein '15	124
15	Eckerd College	Tony Collins '15	132
16	Embry-Riddle University	Joel Hurley '14	136

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
College of Charleston	Zeke Horowitz '12	4	1	1	2	6	1	2	4	6	5	32
University of South Florida	Christopher Stocke '15	5	2	3	1	1	3	3	2	9	6	35
University of Miami	David Hernandez '12	8	3	9	6	12	2	1	1	1	3	46
University of Miami	Nicholas Voss '12	2	6	10	4	3	5	6	3	7	2	48
College of Charleston	Erik Bowers '12	7	5	4	9	2	4	4	6	8	7	56
College of Charleston	William Sands '15	10	4	2	8	5	8	10	5	3	4	59
College of Charleston	Brendan Faria '13	1	7	5	3	11	10	5	8	16	1	67
Eckerd College	Jeff Hahl '12	3	11	6	7	8	6	12	12	11	9	85
University of Miami	Matt Jaykus '14	9	8	15	12	4	7	14	10	5	8	92
University of South Florida	Bryan White '13	6	12	7	5	10	14	8	7	12	13	94
Emory University	Bill Kelly '15	11	14	14	14	13	9	9	9	10	10	113
University of South Florida	Matthew Whitehead '15	16	16	8	11	16	11	16	11	2	11	118
Eckerd College	Erik Brydges '14	13	10	11	16	7	16	7	14	15	14	123
Eckerd College	Andrew Krellenstein '15	14	9	13	13	14	15	11	15	4	16	124
Eckerd College	Tony Collins '15	12	13	16	10	9	13	15	16	13	15	132
Embry-Riddle University	Joel Hurley '14	15	15	12	15	15	12	13	13	14	12	136

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 16 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Zeke Horowitz '12	College of Charleston Cougars 4	10/10	3.07	4.18	+1.11	83rd → 97th	3.4	10%	3.2 / 5.9
2	Christopher Stocke '15	University of South Florida Bulls 3	10/10	2.54	4.02	+1.48	66th → 95th	5.8	2%	3.5 / 6.9
3	David Hernandez '12	University of Miami Hurricanes 3	10/10	2.64	3.17	+0.53	69th → 84th	0.9	12%	4.6 / 6.7
4	Nicholas Voss '12	University of Miami Hurricanes 1	10/10	2.72	3.31	+0.59	72nd → 87th	1.1	24%	4.8 / 6.6
5	Erik Bowers '12	College of Charleston Cougars 3	10/10	2.77	3.03	+0.27	74th → 83rd	0.3	39%	5.6 / 6.5
6	William Sands '15	College of Charleston Cougars 2	10/10	2.47	2.82	+0.35	62nd → 77th	0.4	32%	5.9 / 7.1
7	Brendan Faria '13	College of Charleston Cougars 1	10/10	2.71	2.14	−0.57	72nd → 56th	1.2	54%	6.7 / 6.6
8	Jeff Hahl '12	Eckerd College Tritons 1	10/10	1.70	2.08	+0.38	42nd → 54th	0.5	44%	8.5 / 8.9
9	Matt Jaykus '14	University of Miami Hurricanes 2	10/10	1.08	1.72	+0.64	25th → 43rd	1.4	32%	9.2 / 10.3
10	Bryan White '13	University of South Florida Bulls 1	10/10	2.05	1.74	−0.30	53rd → 43rd	0.4	71%	9.4 / 8.1
11	Bill Kelly '15	Emory University	10/10	0.42	1.33	+0.91	12th → 31st	2.7	42%	11.3 / 11.6
12	Matthew Whitehead '15	University of South Florida Bulls 2	10/10	1.07	0.14	−0.93	25th → 9th	2.5	73%	11.8 / 10.3
13	Erik Brydges '14	Eckerd College Tritons 3	10/10	1.12	0.58	−0.54	25th → 15th	1.0	82%	12.3 / 10.2
14	Andrew Krellenstein '15	Eckerd College Tritons 4	10/10	0.46	0.74	+0.28	13th → 17th	0.3	64%	12.4 / 11.5
15	Tony Collins '15	Eckerd College Tritons 2	10/10	2.01	0.21	−1.81	52nd → 9th	14.5	99%	13.2 / 8.2
16	Joel Hurley '14	Embry-Riddle University	10/10	0.89	0.59	−0.30	21st → 15th	0.4	92%	13.6 / 10.7

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 49% · Pressure 1012.9 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 76°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.7 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 21.6 kn

From NNW (342°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.6 hrs Humidity49% Pressure1012.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Jacksonville — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Jacksonville in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled fleet-race days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu