Shields Trophy

HostNavy
Date09/15/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatNavy 44
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	6	6
2	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	14	14
3	Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	15	15
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	26	26
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	28	28
6	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	32	32
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	33	33
8	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	50	50
9	Royal Military College	Royal Military	50	50

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	1	1	2	1	1	6
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	6	DSQ	1	2	2	14
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	4	2	3	3	3	15
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	2	4	5	5	DNF	26
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	5	3	4	6	DNF	28
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	3	5	7	7	DNF	32
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	7	6	6	4	DNF	33
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	50
Royal Military College	Royal Military	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	DSQ	50

School	Team	Sailors
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	SkipperMatthew Van Rensselaer '13 CrewElliott James '13 CrewJessica Bernhard '14 CrewWilliam Antrobus '15 CrewSeamus Dougherty '16 CrewKyle Vanderspek '13 CrewAndrew Lamb '14 CrewChris Vilicich '16
Maine Maritime Academy	Mariners	SkipperJake Newton '13 CrewMariana Alvarez Restrepo '14 CrewTaylor Batton '14 CrewRyan Collet '15 CrewBen King '14 CrewMolly Howe '15 CrewDustin Hofer '14 CrewDavid Markley '14
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	SkipperSean McLaughlin '15 CrewAndrew Morgan '15 CrewMichael Reney '13 CrewTravis Thonus '14 CrewDaniel Barry '15 CrewAndrew Gregoire '14 CrewTim Dexter '14 CrewFrancis Dougherty '15 [1-4] CrewMatthew Butler '14 [5]
Royal Military College	Royal Military	SkipperAlanna Foscarini '13 CrewKevin Bowen '15 CrewAndrew Campbell '13 CrewRyan Jutt '?? CrewBenjamin Hughes '13 CrewBrittany Germain '16 CrewNigel Mahon '13 CrewTodd Ward '15
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	SkipperPatrick Walker '13 CrewTravis Ochs '14 CrewRudy Normann '13 CrewDaniel McDonald '13 CrewEvan Kinkel '15 CrewJames Dempsey '13 CrewNick Berger '14 CrewJoel Kinkel '15
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	SkipperTheodore Kirchner '13 CrewMichael Woollen '15 CrewAllison Herrington '14 CrewJerome Eckert-Nathan '14 CrewBeth Handy '13 CrewPatrick Aylward '15 CrewPatrick Meade '14 CrewAlexander Cole '13
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	SkipperKevin Knaup '13 CrewNoel Cruz '15 CrewBenjamin Arocho '14 CrewEthan Huck '13 CrewBenjamin Williamsz '13 CrewMerrill Gutowski '13 CrewNicholas Capuzzi '14 CrewEmma Lutton '15
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	SkipperArthur Bailey IV '14 CrewJoe Olson '13 CrewBenjamin Carbone '13 CrewCasey Cannon '13 CrewJames Kaiser '14 CrewAlexander Showell '15 CrewJonathan Cook '14 CrewWalther Sergojan '13
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	SkipperStephen Jaenke '13 CrewSamuel Ross '13 CrewAndrew Beeler '14 CrewRoscoe Thomas '14 CrewEthan Madison '14 CrewKelsey Ragsdale '13 CrewCharles Johnson '13 CrewSean Brown '13

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 9 boats · 5 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Stephen Jaenke '13	U. S. Naval Academy	5/5	1.67^u	4.15	+2.48	94th → 99th	5.3	1%	1.2 / 3.8
2	Jake Newton '13	Maine Maritime Academy	5/5	0.85^u	1.44	+0.60	68th → 88th	0.6	9%	3.0 / 5.1
3	Arthur Bailey IV '14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	5/5	1.05	1.40	+0.35	76th → 88th	0.2	39%	4.2 / 4.8
4	Kevin Knaup '13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	5/5	1.58^u	0.95	−0.63	91st → 72nd	0.9	82%	5.2 / 4.0
5	Patrick Walker '13	SUNY Maritime College	5/5	0.45	1.01	+0.56	46th → 75th	0.6	45%	5.6 / 5.8
6	Sean McLaughlin '15	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	5/5	0.78	-0.32	−1.10	63rd → 5th	1.8	79%	6.4 / 5.3
7	Theodore Kirchner '13	St. Mary's College of Maryland	5/5	0.61^u	-0.27	−0.88	55th → 6th	1.2	77%	6.6 / 5.5
8	Alanna Foscarini '13	Royal Military College	5/5	-0.43	—	—	3rd → —	0.0	>99%	10.0 / 6.8
8	Matthew Van Rensselaer '13	California Maritime Academy	5/5	1.63	—	—	92nd → —	0.0	>99%	10.0 / 3.8

Conditions — 09/15/2012 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1021.7 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 74°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.1 kn

avg · max 12.1 kn

Gusts to 22.0 kn

From NNW (345°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover48% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1021.7 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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