| # | School | Team | A | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Michigan State University | spartans 1 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 |  |
Western Michigan University | Western Michigan 1 | 18 | 18 |
| 3 |  |
Northwestern University | Purple | 30 | 30 |
| 4 |  |
University of Michigan | Wolverines | 33 | 33 |
| 5 | |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 35 | 35 |
| 6 |  |
Miami University | Miami University | 36 | 36 |
| 7 | |
Western Michigan University | Western Michigan 2 | 52 | 52 |
| 8 | |
Michigan State University | spartans 2 | 55 | 55 |
| School | Team | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | R7 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Michigan State University | spartans 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
|
Western Michigan University | Western Michigan 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 18 |
|
Northwestern University | Purple | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | DNS | 2 | 3 | 30 |
|
University of Michigan | Wolverines | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | OCS | 4 | 4 | 33 |
|
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 7 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
|
Miami University | Miami University | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | BKD | 6 | 36 |
|
Western Michigan University | Western Michigan 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | DNS | DNS | DNS | 52 |
|
Michigan State University | spartans 2 | 6 | OCS | DNF | DNS | 4 | DNS | DNS | 55 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Declercq '17 | Michigan State University spartans 1 | 7/7 | 0.60 | 7.00+ | +6.40 | 54th → 99th | 16.9 | <1% | 1.0 / 4.2 |
| 2 | Jack Greve '15 | Western Michigan University Western Michigan 1 | 7/7 | 0.50 | 1.33 | +0.83 | 49th → 86th | 1.9 | 10% | 2.6 / 4.3 |
| 3 | Jacob Bruce '16 | Northwestern University Purple | 7/7 | 0.57 | 0.68 | +0.11 | 54th → 57th | 0.0 | 55% | 4.3 / 4.2 |
| 4 | Ryan Davidson '15 | University of Michigan | 7/7 | -0.04 | 0.61 | +0.64 | 15th → 55th | 1.1 | 40% | 4.7 / 5.1 |
| 5 | Robert Johnston '15 | Northwestern University Wildcats | 7/7 | 0.48 | -0.37 | −0.84 | 47th → 4th | 2.4 | 70% | 5.0 / 4.4 |
| 6 | Andrew Wilt '14 | Miami University | 7/7 | 0.37u | -0.41 | −0.78 | 41st → 3rd | 1.7 | 82% | 5.7 / 4.5 |
| 7 | Robert O'Brien '16 | Western Michigan University Western Michigan 2 | 6/7 | -0.01 | -1.31 | −1.30 | 15th → 1st | 1.6 | 99% | 7.7 / 5.1 |
| 7 | Kate Meyer '16 | Western Michigan University Western Michigan 2 | 1/7 | 0.87u | -0.26 | −1.13 | 68th → 6th | 0.9 | 84% | 6.0 / 3.9 |
| 8 | Colton Radenbaugh '15 | Michigan State University spartans 2 | 7/7 | 0.51 | 0.16 | −0.35 | 50th → 22nd | 0.1 | >99% | 7.9 / 4.3 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
