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SAISA Men's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
College of Charleston College of Charleston Gerald Williams '19 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 12
College of Charleston College of Charleston Malcolm Benn Smith '21 4 5 2 5 4 4 2 1 2 4 33
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Jack Gower '20 1 7 6 2 3 2 3 4 5 2 35
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University David Perez '21 3 2 3 7 7 8 5 5 4 3 47
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Scott Harris '22 11 3 5 3 9 7 6 6 3 6 59
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina John Fewell '20 7 9 8 4 2 6 10 7 6 5 64
College of Charleston College of Charleston Carson Shields '22 6 4 7 6 5 3 9 9 8 10 67
College of Charleston College of Charleston Augie Dale '19 8 6 4 9 6 10 8 3 7 7 68
Florida State University Florida State University Mitchell Powell '20 10 11 9 8 10 9 7 8 9 8 89
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Ian Hunter '21 12 12 10 11 8 5 4 10 10 9 91
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Scott Hansen '21 5 8 12 12 12 11 11 12 11 13 107
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Hogan O'Donnell '21 9 10 11 10 11 12 12 11 12 12 110
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Robert Hargrave '19 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 128

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  13 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Gerald Williams '19College of Charleston Cougars 210/103.667.25+3.5993rd → 99th14.8<1%1.2 / 4.1
2Malcolm Benn Smith '21College of Charleston Cougars 310/103.083.97+0.8983rd → 95th2.311%3.3 / 5.1
3Jack Gower '20Jacksonville University Fins 110/102.853.77+0.9278th → 93rd2.49%3.5 / 5.5
4David Perez '21Jacksonville University Fins 210/101.973.25+1.2951st → 86th4.810%4.7 / 7.2
5Scott Harris '22North Carolina State University Wolfpack 210/102.192.55+0.3658th → 67th0.435%5.9 / 6.7
6John Fewell '20University of South Carolina Gamecocks 110/101.992.43+0.4451st → 62nd0.737%6.4 / 7.1
7Carson Shields '22College of Charleston Cougars 410/101.692.32+0.6342nd → 60th1.333%6.7 / 7.6
8Augie Dale '19College of Charleston Cougars 110/103.282.12−1.1686th → 56th6.187%6.8 / 4.9
9Mitchell Powell '20Florida State University10/101.591.65+0.0639th → 41st0.071%8.9 / 7.8
10Ian Hunter '21Jacksonville University Fins 310/101.441.27−0.1735th → 30th0.169%9.1 / 8.1
11Scott Hansen '21Jacksonville University Fins 410/101.500.37−1.1338th → 12th5.095%10.7 / 8.0
12Hogan O'Donnell '21North Carolina State University Wolfpack 110/100.320.81+0.4911th → 18th0.872%11.0 / 10.0
13Robert Hargrave '19University of South Carolina Gamecocks 210/100.91u-2.85−3.7621st → 1st18.5>99%12.8 / 9.0

Conditions — 09/22/2018 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1018.8 hPa

Temperature

80°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 73°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.9 kn
avg  ·  max 7.0 kn
Gusts to 14.2 kn
From E (81°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover17% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1018.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (−0.02)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →