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The Richard Ross College Bowl

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 3 3
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 4 4
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 8 8
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 9 9
5 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 9 9
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 10 10
7 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 14 14
8 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 15 15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons 1 2 3
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 3 1 4
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 5 3 8
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 2 7 9
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 4 5 9
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 6 4 10
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 8 6 14
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 7 8 15
School Team Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 SkipperZachary Jordan '21
CrewJustin Chiang '21
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 SkipperAidan Biondi '22
CrewCamden Baer '21
CrewPaul Secchia '21
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 SkipperNiall Sheridan '23
CrewSara Morrison '23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 SkipperEge Ozgul '23
CrewMallory Hood '22
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 SkipperRobert Bartlett '21
CrewAnisha Jain '20
University of Massachusetts at Boston University of Massachusetts at Boston Beacons SkipperBenjamin Geffken '20
CrewBrooke Steadman '21
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats SkipperKalen Mullin '21
CrewKyra Grasso '21
CrewElizabeth Phelps '23
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams SkipperPeter Gunn '20
CrewNicholas Chaloux '20

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  8 boats · 2 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Benjamin Geffken '20University of Massachusetts at Boston2/21.013.49+2.4875th → 99th3.18%1.5 / 4.2
2Ege Ozgul '23Tufts University Jumbos 22/21.012.72+1.7075th → 99th1.914%2.0 / 4.3
3Robert Bartlett '21Tufts University Jumbos 32/20.771.41+0.6562nd → 88th0.442%4.0 / 4.7
4Aidan Biondi '22Brown University Bears 22/20.970.68−0.2973rd → 57th0.159%4.5 / 4.4
4Zachary Jordan '21Brown University Bears 12/21.391.11−0.2888th → 77th0.172%4.5 / 3.8
6Niall Sheridan '23Tufts University Jumbos 12/20.910.90−0.0171st → 71st0.066%5.0 / 4.5
7Peter Gunn '20University of Rhode Island2/20.87-0.72−1.5968th → 1st2.294%7.0 / 4.5
8Kalen Mullin '21University of New Hampshire2/2-0.02-0.58−0.5615th → 2nd0.288%7.5 / 5.7

Conditions — 09/21/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 57%  ·  Pressure 1021.5 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 63°F
Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.7 kn
avg  ·  max 9.6 kn
Gusts to 19.4 kn
From SE (132°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity57% Pressure1021.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →