Navigate

Richard Ross College Bowl

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 7 7
2 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 8 8
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 10 10
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 11 11
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 12 12
6 Boston University Boston University Terriers 18 18
7 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 22 22
8 University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 23 23
9 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 24 24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 4 2 1 7
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 2 3 3 8
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 5 4 10
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 8 1 2 11
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 3 4 5 12
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 6 6 18
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 8 9 22
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams 7 9 7 23
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 9 7 8 24
School Team Sailors
Boston University Boston University Terriers SkipperRenato Korzinek '25
CrewSahil Khatnani '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 SkipperGrant Adam '23
CrewEd Bielawa '24
CrewSarah Wong '25
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 SkipperSpencer Dellenbaugh '23
CrewLucian Sharpe '24
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 SkipperMeredith Broadus '25
CrewAnnabel De Alessi '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 SkipperAdam Larzelere '25
CrewHarry Kaya Prager '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 SkipperPhilip Lengyel '25
CrewCecily Marden '25
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 SkipperNiall Sheridan '23
CrewSara Morrison '23
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats SkipperEmily Zaleski '22
CrewMaya Feldman '23
University of Rhode Island University of Rhode Island Rams SkipperIain Jaeger '23
CrewMax Hooker '22

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  9 boats · 3 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Grant Adam '23Brown University Bears 13/31.612.75+1.1491st → 99th1.518%2.3 / 4.2
2Niall Sheridan '23Tufts University Jumbos 43/31.072.57+1.4977th → 99th2.510%2.7 / 5.1
3Meredith Broadus '25Tufts University Jumbos 13/30.932.05+1.1272nd → 99th1.616%3.3 / 5.3
4Spencer Dellenbaugh '23Brown University Bears 23/31.681.56−0.1294th → 91st0.047%3.7 / 4.1
5Philip Lengyel '25Tufts University Jumbos 33/31.171.79+0.6279th → 96th0.636%4.0 / 4.9
6Renato Korzinek '25Boston University3/30.741.14+0.3961st → 78th0.361%6.0 / 5.6
7Emily Zaleski '22University of New Hampshire3/30.50u0.17−0.3349th → 22nd0.179%7.3 / 6.0
8Iain Jaeger '23University of Rhode Island3/31.120.00−1.1278th → 17th2.094%7.7 / 5.0
9Adam Larzelere '25Tufts University Jumbos 23/31.24-0.12−1.3683rd → 11th3.297%8.0 / 4.8

Conditions — 09/25/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1016.2 hPa

Temperature

67°F
↑ 71°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 67°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.3 kn
avg  ·  max 7.5 kn
Gusts to 15.6 kn
From ENE (76°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover39% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1016.2 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Tufts — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Tufts in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled fleet-race days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →