| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
University of Miami | Richard Mccann '22 | 8 |
| 2 |  |
College of Charleston | Alexander Gonzalez '24 | 27 |
| 3 |  |
University of South Florida | Humberto Porrata '25 | 34 |
| 4 |  |
North Carolina State University | Scott Harris '22 | 36 |
| 5 | |
College of Charleston | Carson Shields '22 | 47 |
| 6 | |
College of Charleston | Lawson Levine '24 | 51 |
| 7 | |
College of Charleston | Ethan Homberger '25 | 56 |
| 8 |  |
Jacksonville University | Matthew King '24 | 58 |
| 9 | |
University of Miami | Magnus Weissenberger '25 | 63 |
| 10 | |
Jacksonville University | Patrick Barney '25 | 80 |
| 11 | |
University of Miami | Jonathan Gleason '25 | 89 |
| 12 | |
North Carolina State University | Jacob Usher '25 | 93 |
| 13 | |
North Carolina State University | Hogan O'Donnell '21 | 104 |
| 14 | |
Jacksonville University | Thomas Pappas '25 | 105 |
| 15 | |
Jacksonville University | Joe Seiffert '25 | 125 |
| 16 |  |
The Citadel | Walter Prause '24 | 133 |
| 17 |  |
Eckerd College | Cooper Robinson '23 | 136 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Mccann '22 | University of Miami Hurricanes 1 | 8/8 | 1.54u | 8.75+ | +7.21 | 38th → 99th | 33.6 | <1% | 1.0 / 8.9 |
| 2 | Alexander Gonzalez '24 | College of Charleston Cougars 3 | 8/8 | 2.67 | 3.81 | +1.14 | 71st → 94th | 2.9 | 10% | 3.4 / 6.3 |
| 3 | Humberto Porrata '25 | University of South Florida | 8/8 | 2.21 | 3.02 | +0.81 | 58th → 83rd | 1.5 | 11% | 4.2 / 7.3 |
| 4 | Scott Harris '22 | North Carolina State University Wolfpack 1 | 8/8 | 2.76 | 3.16 | +0.39 | 74th → 84th | 0.4 | 28% | 4.5 / 6.1 |
| 5 | Carson Shields '22 | College of Charleston Cougars 4 | 8/8 | 1.69 | 2.55 | +0.87 | 42nd → 67th | 1.9 | 16% | 5.9 / 8.7 |
| 6 | Lawson Levine '24 | College of Charleston Cougars 1 | 8/8 | 2.11 | 2.56 | +0.45 | 55th → 67th | 0.6 | 33% | 6.4 / 7.5 |
| 7 | Ethan Homberger '25 | College of Charleston Cougars 2 | 8/8 | 1.26 | 2.39 | +1.12 | 30th → 61st | 3.2 | 12% | 7.0 / 9.6 |
| 8 | Matthew King '24 | Jacksonville University Fins 2 | 8/8 | 2.66 | 1.87 | −0.79 | 71st → 47th | 2.1 | 72% | 7.2 / 6.2 |
| 9 | Magnus Weissenberger '25 | University of Miami Hurricanes 2 | 8/8 | 1.91 | 2.07 | +0.16 | 48th → 53rd | 0.1 | 49% | 7.9 / 8.1 |
| 10 | Patrick Barney '25 | Jacksonville University Fins 1 | 8/8 | 1.06 | 1.44 | +0.38 | 24th → 35th | 0.4 | 49% | 10.0 / 10.1 |
| 11 | Jonathan Gleason '25 | University of Miami Hurricanes 3 | 8/8 | 0.70 | 1.12 | +0.41 | 17th → 25th | 0.5 | 53% | 11.1 / 11.0 |
| 12 | Jacob Usher '25 | North Carolina State University Wolfpack 3 | 8/8 | 1.37 | 0.63 | −0.74 | 33rd → 17th | 1.7 | 81% | 11.6 / 9.3 |
| 13 | Hogan O'Donnell '21 | North Carolina State University Wolfpack 2 | 8/8 | 1.61 | 0.17 | −1.44 | 40th → 9th | 7.5 | 95% | 13.0 / 8.7 |
| 14 | Thomas Pappas '25 | Jacksonville University Fins 3 | 8/8 | 1.27 | 0.26 | −1.01 | 30th → 10th | 3.6 | 91% | 13.1 / 9.6 |
| 15 | Joe Seiffert '25 | Jacksonville University Fins 4 | 8/8 | 0.04 | -0.33 | −0.38 | 6th → 3rd | 0.1 | 94% | 15.6 / 12.4 |
| 16 | Walter Prause '24 | The Citadel | 8/8 | -0.46 | — | — | 3rd → — | 4.8 | 98% | 16.6 / 13.4 |
| 17 | Cooper Robinson '23 | Eckerd College | 8/8 | 1.14 | 0.46 | −0.68 | 25th → 13th | 0.4 | >99% | 17.0 / 9.9 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
