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SAISA Open Singlehanded Championships

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT
College of Charleston College of Charleston Benjamin Dufour '26 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 8
College of Charleston College of Charleston Ethan Homberger '25 10 2 4 8 4 6 4 38
Eckerd College Eckerd College Morgan Smith '27 6 4 6 1 OCS 2 3 40
College of Charleston College of Charleston Eliott Raison '26 2 6 2 3 OCS 3 9 43
University of South Florida University of South Florida Humberto Porrata '25 8 3 7 9 7 8 2 44
College of Charleston College of Charleston Lawson Levine '24 3 5 5 7 OCS 4 6 48
University of Miami University of Miami Aidan Dennis '25 4 7 3 4 OCS 7 7 50
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University Benjamin Usher '27 5 13 12 5 2 5 8 50
University of Miami University of Miami Magnus Weissenberger '25 11 9 9 6 3 11 5 54
University of Miami University of Miami Jonathan Gleason '25 12 8 10 14 9 10 10 73
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Joe Seiffert '25 7 11 8 11 12 15 13 77
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Patrick Barney '25 9 10 13 12 5 12 16 77
University of North Carolina at Wilmington University of North Carolina at Wilmington Andrew Simpson '27 14 12 11 13 6 9 12 77
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Andrew Lam '26 16 17 15 10 8 14 14 94
North Carolina State University North Carolina State University John Richards '26 15 16 14 15 10 16 11 97
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Zechariah Frantz '25 17 15 17 16 11 13 15 104
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Keegan Mackinnon '27 13 14 16 DNS DNS DNS DNS 115

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  17 boats · 7 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Benjamin Dufour '26College of Charleston Cougars 27/73.897.93+4.0494th → 99th11.3<1%1.1 / 4.6
2Ethan Homberger '25College of Charleston Cougars 37/72.493.08+0.5962nd → 83rd0.816%5.4 / 7.7
3Morgan Smith '27Eckerd College7/72.704.10+1.4172nd → 96th3.225%5.7 / 7.2
4Eliott Raison '26College of Charleston Cougars 17/72.703.73+1.0372nd → 93rd1.837%6.1 / 7.3
5Humberto Porrata '25University of South Florida7/72.532.62+0.0966th → 69th0.033%6.3 / 7.7
6Lawson Levine '24College of Charleston Cougars 47/73.583.39−0.1992nd → 89th0.183%6.9 / 5.2
7Aidan Dennis '25University of Miami Hurricanes 27/72.943.31+0.3780th → 87th0.361%7.1 / 6.7
7Benjamin Usher '27North Carolina State University Wolfpack 27/72.162.30+0.1457th → 60th0.032%7.1 / 8.5
9Magnus Weissenberger '25University of Miami Hurricanes 17/71.942.31+0.3750th → 60th0.334%7.7 / 8.9
10Jonathan Gleason '25University of Miami Hurricanes 37/71.301.40+0.0930th → 34th0.049%10.4 / 10.5
11Andrew Simpson '27University of North Carolina at Wilmington7/71.521.27−0.2538th → 30th0.265%11.0 / 10.0
11Joe Seiffert '25Jacksonville University Fins 17/71.220.66−0.5629th → 17th0.755%11.0 / 10.7
11Patrick Barney '25Jacksonville University Fins 27/71.560.89−0.6739th → 21st1.266%11.0 / 9.9
14Andrew Lam '26Embry-Riddle University Eagles 27/70.470.17−0.3013th → 9th0.265%13.4 / 12.4
15John Richards '26North Carolina State University Wolfpack 17/70.700.00−0.6917th → 6th1.379%13.9 / 11.8
16Zechariah Frantz '25Embry-Riddle University Eagles 17/70.31-0.72−1.0311th → 1st2.283%14.9 / 12.7
17Keegan Mackinnon '27Florida Institute of Technology7/71.020.29−0.7323rd → 11th0.7>99%16.4 / 11.1

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1014.9 hPa

Temperature

83°F
↑ 85°F   ↓ 79°F
Feels like 91°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.8 kn
Gusts to 17.1 kn
From ENE (70°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover59% Sunshine10.8 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1014.9 hPa Rain0.42 in

What this breeze does at Florida Tech — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Florida Tech in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Florida Tech by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Florida Tech, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →