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SAISA Open Singlehanded Champs

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT
College of Charleston College of Charleston Will Rucker '28 5 2 2 6 4 5 2 4 1 3 34
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Morgan Smith '27 6 1 4 1 7 6 5 6 6 1 43
College of Charleston College of Charleston Eliott Raison '26 1 5 1 DSQ 3 4 9 2 2 8 52
College of Charleston College of Charleston Benjamin Dufour '26 2 3 DSQ 10 1 1 1 1 4 15 55
University of Miami University of Miami David Webb '28 9 7 8 4 8 2 7 3 7 4 59
University of South Florida University of South Florida Efe Guder '28 7 8 7 2 5 8 3 7 8 5 60
University of South Florida University of South Florida Humberto Porrata '25 8 4 10 3 13 3 4 10 5 6 66
College of Charleston College of Charleston Ethan Homberger '25 16 9 3 14 2 7 6 5 3 2 67
University of Miami University of Miami Magnus Weissenberger '25 3 6 6 7 12 15 10 8 12 11 90
Rollins College Rollins College Matthew Sexton '28 14 12 9 11 6 10 12 9 10 9 102
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Joe Seiffert '25 4 13 5 8 10 16 13 14 11 12 106
University of Miami University of Miami Jonathan Gleason '25 13 15 12 12 9 9 14 11 9 7 111
Jacksonville University Jacksonville University Owen Bannasch '26 11 10 11 9 14 12 8 12 15 14 116
Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Institute of Technology Alex Bagnoni '27 10 11 15 13 11 13 16 15 14 13 131
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Andrew Lam '26 12 16 13 5 15 14 15 16 13 16 135
University of Miami University of Miami Harrison Vanderground '28 15 14 14 15 16 11 11 13 16 10 135

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  16 boats · 10 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Will Rucker '28College of Charleston Cougars 410/103.174.23+1.0684th → 98th3.26%3.4 / 5.9
2Morgan Smith '27Jacksonville University Fins 110/102.763.68+0.9273rd → 93rd2.68%4.3 / 6.8
3Eliott Raison '26College of Charleston Cougars 210/102.703.84+1.1472nd → 94th3.323%5.2 / 7.0
4Benjamin Dufour '26College of Charleston Cougars 110/103.893.04−0.8694th → 83rd2.279%5.5 / 4.5
5David Webb '28University of Miami Hurricanes 410/101.783.10+1.3244th → 84th5.210%5.9 / 9.0
6Efe Guder '28University of South Florida Bulls 110/102.603.02+0.4268th → 83rd0.633%6.0 / 7.2
7Humberto Porrata '25University of South Florida Bulls 210/102.572.63+0.0567th → 69th0.041%6.6 / 7.3
8Ethan Homberger '25College of Charleston Cougars 310/102.492.00−0.4962nd → 52nd0.737%6.7 / 7.4
9Magnus Weissenberger '25University of Miami Hurricanes 110/101.931.91−0.0249th → 48th0.055%9.0 / 8.8
10Matthew Sexton '28Rollins College10/101.201.81+0.6028th → 44th1.346%10.2 / 10.4
11Joe Seiffert '25Jacksonville University Fins 310/101.221.30+0.0829th → 30th0.054%10.6 / 10.3
12Jonathan Gleason '25University of Miami Hurricanes 210/101.361.30−0.0632nd → 30th0.070%11.1 / 10.1
13Owen Bannasch '26Jacksonville University Fins 210/102.511.21−1.2964th → 28th8.399%11.6 / 7.4
14Alex Bagnoni '27Georgia Institute of Technology10/100.800.54−0.2618th → 14th0.281%13.1 / 11.2
15Andrew Lam '26Embry-Riddle University10/100.560.21−0.3415th → 10th0.480%13.5 / 11.7
15Harrison Vanderground '28University of Miami Hurricanes 310/100.860.32−0.5420th → 11th0.986%13.5 / 11.1

Conditions — 09/14/2024 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 86%  ·  Pressure 1013.0 hPa

Temperature

78°F
↑ 83°F   ↓ 76°F
Feels like 86°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 12.1 kn
Gusts to 22.4 kn
From NNE (30°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine7.1 hrs Humidity86% Pressure1013.0 hPa Rain0.91 in

What this breeze does at Jacksonville — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Jacksonville in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.02)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jacksonville by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (22 labelled fleet-race days at Jacksonville).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →