| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Purdue University | Christopher Draper '29 | 8 |
| 2 |  |
Hope College | Lucas Nykamp '29 | 17 |
| 3 | |
Hope College | Matthew Tevelde '30 | 23 |
| 4 |  |
University of Chicago | Max Naseef '28 | 26 |
| 5 |  |
Michigan State University | Clayton Debruyn '30 | 37 |
| 6 |  |
University of Michigan | Everett Lehnert '30 | 40 |
| 7 | |
University of Chicago | Alex Strassberg Alonso '28 | 41 |
| 8 | |
University of Michigan | Brendan Wojkowski '29 | 49 |
| 9 | |
Hope College | Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale '28 | 49 |
| 10 | |
University of Michigan | Henry Feyen '29 | 56 |
| 11 | |
University of Michigan | Yang Yi Zheng '29 | 72 |
| 12 |  |
Western Michigan University | Jack Charlton '27 | 74 |
| 13 |  |
University of Illinois | Shuchen Cai '27 | 90 |
| 14 |  |
Marquette University | Charlie Herman '28 | 90 |
| School | Sailor | R1 | R2 | R3 | R4 | R5 | R6 | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Purdue University | Christopher Draper '29 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
|
Hope College | Lucas Nykamp '29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
|
Hope College | Matthew Tevelde '30 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
|
University of Chicago | Max Naseef '28 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 26 |
|
Michigan State University | Clayton Debruyn '30 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | DNF | 37 |
|
University of Michigan | Everett Lehnert '30 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 40 |
|
University of Chicago | Alex Strassberg Alonso '28 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 41 |
|
University of Michigan | Brendan Wojkowski '29 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 49 |
|
Hope College | Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale '28 | 9 | 4 | OCS | 7 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
|
University of Michigan | Henry Feyen '29 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 56 |
|
University of Michigan | Yang Yi Zheng '29 | OCS | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | DNF | 72 |
|
Western Michigan University | Jack Charlton '27 | 11 | OCS | 7 | 11 | DNF | DNS | 74 |
|
University of Illinois | Shuchen Cai '27 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNF | DNS | DNS | 90 |
|
Marquette University | Charlie Herman '28 | DNS | DNS | DNS | DNF | DNS | DNS | 90 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.25); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Draper '29 | Purdue University | 6/6 | 2.51 | 5.70 | +3.19 | 64th → 99th | 8.4 | <1% | 1.3 / 4.9 |
| 2 | Lucas Nykamp '29 | Hope College Flying Dutchmen 1 | 6/6 | 2.86 | 3.23 | +0.37 | 79th → 85th | 0.2 | 22% | 2.8 / 4.3 |
| 3 | Matthew Tevelde '30 | Hope College Flying Dutchmen 3 | 6/6 | 2.61 | 2.55 | −0.07 | 68th → 66th | 0.0 | 35% | 3.8 / 4.6 |
| 4 | Max Naseef '28 | University of Chicago Maroons 1 | 6/6 | 1.90 | 2.01 | +0.10 | 48th → 51st | 0.0 | 25% | 4.3 / 5.9 |
| 5 | Clayton Debruyn '30 | Michigan State University | 6/6 | 2.00 | 2.31 | +0.31 | 51st → 60th | 0.2 | 64% | 6.2 / 5.7 |
| 6 | Everett Lehnert '30 | University of Michigan Wolverines 2 | 6/6 | 1.43 | 1.11 | −0.32 | 35th → 25th | 0.2 | 48% | 6.7 / 6.9 |
| 7 | Alex Strassberg Alonso '28 | University of Chicago Maroons 2 | 6/6 | 0.25 | 0.95 | +0.70 | 10th → 22nd | 0.9 | 16% | 6.8 / 9.0 |
| 8 | Brendan Wojkowski '29 | University of Michigan Wolverines 1 | 6/6 | 0.39 | -0.16 | −0.55 | 12th → 4th | 0.6 | 39% | 8.2 / 8.8 |
| 8 | Gabriel "Gabe" Morreale '28 | Hope College Flying Dutchmen 2 | 6/6 | 1.32 | 1.12 | −0.21 | 31st → 25th | 0.1 | 72% | 8.2 / 7.0 |
| 10 | Henry Feyen '29 | University of Michigan Wolverines 3 | 6/6 | -0.07 | -1.18 | −1.11 | 5th → 1st | 1.7 | 44% | 9.3 / 9.6 |
| 11 | Yang Yi Zheng '29 | University of Michigan Wolverines 4 | 6/6 | -0.55 | -1.09 | −0.54 | 2nd → 1st | 0.4 | 81% | 12.0 / 10.4 |
| 12 | Jack Charlton '27 | Western Michigan University | 6/6 | -0.27 | -0.61 | −0.34 | 4th → 2nd | 0.1 | 91% | 12.3 / 9.9 |
| 13 | Charlie Herman '28 | Marquette University | 6/6 | -0.14 | — | — | 4th → — | 0.0 | >99% | 15.0 / 9.4 |
| 13 | Shuchen Cai '27 | University of Illinois | 6/6 | 0.39 | — | — | 12th → — | 0.0 | >99% | 15.0 / 8.6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
