Simulated results — this week

Monte Carlo race simulations built on the predicted lineups — win probability and average finish, not just a single guessed winner.

How this is built: for each regatta, every school's predicted skipper(s) and their current Plackett–Luce rating are pulled from the lineup predictions. Each simulated race perturbs every skipper's rating with independent Gumbel(0,1) noise and sorts descending — the Gumbel–max trick, which produces an exact draw from the Plackett–Luce distribution those ratings were originally fit under, so the simulation uses the same generative model as the ratings themselves, not a separate approximation. Each school's team score in a simulated race is the sum of its skippers' finishing positions (standard low‑point team scoring: lower wins). Repeated 5,000 times per regatta; win / top‑3 / average‑rank are the fraction of simulations each school actually won, placed top 3, or its mean finishing rank across all of them.

Quinn's race this week

Harry H. Anderson Jr. Trophy

Yale · 09/12/2026 · 5,000 simulated races · win probability shown below

Brown University18%
Roger Williams University15%
Dartmouth College13%
Harvard University12%
Yale University10%
Boston College6%
Babson College6%
Massachusetts Institute of Technology5%

Brown: average finish 4.4 of 17, top‑3 in 49% of simulations.

Every regatta this week

SAISA North Top 6 Invite

UNC Wilmington · 09/12/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	College of Charleston	49%	96%	1.7
2	North Carolina State University	33%	92%	2.1
3	Clemson University	9%	57%	3.3
4	University of South Carolina	4%	27%	4.1
5	Duke University	4%	21%	4.4
6	University of North Carolina at Wilmington	1%	7%	5.4

SAISA South Top 6 Invite

South Florida · 09/12/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Jacksonville University	28%	71%	2.7
2	Eckerd College	24%	68%	2.8
3	Rollins College	17%	52%	3.4
4	University of South Florida	16%	52%	3.4
5	Florida State University	9%	32%	4.2
6	University of Miami	7%	25%	4.6

Fall Fury

Wisconsin · 09/12/2026 · 11 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	University of Michigan	30%	68%	3.0
2	Northwestern University	20%	56%	3.6
3	University of Wisconsin	13%	45%	4.3
4	Michigan Technological University	11%	32%	5.1
5	Western Michigan University	9%	30%	4.4
6	Hope College	5%	19%	6.3

SAISA Women's Singlehanded Championship

U. Miami · 09/12/2026 · 5 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	University of South Florida	33%	87%	2.1
2	College of Charleston	31%	55%	2.9
3	Rollins College	23%	84%	2.5
4	University of Miami	12%	67%	3.0
5	Florida Institute of Technology	1%	8%	4.6

Riley Cup

Old Dominion · 09/12/2026 · 14 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Georgetown University	29%	66%	3.1
2	Virginia Tech	18%	49%	4.1
3	Penn State University	17%	45%	4.3
4	U. S. Naval Academy	13%	44%	4.5
5	George Washington University	4%	16%	7.1
6	University of Maryland	4%	16%	7.2

Chester River Open

Washington College · 09/12/2026 · 4 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	U. S. Naval Academy	74%	100%	1.3
2	Princeton University	12%	86%	2.5
3	Washington College	10%	82%	2.7
4	University of Delaware	3%	33%	3.5

Mt. Hope Bay Invite

Roger Williams · 09/12/2026 · 5 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Roger Williams University	38%	85%	2.1
2	University of Rhode Island	25%	75%	2.6
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	23%	73%	2.7
4	Salve Regina University	8%	42%	3.6
5	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	5%	25%	4.1

Penobscot Bay Open

Maine Maritime · 09/12/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Northeastern University	21%	57%	3.4
2	McGill University	15%	47%	3.9
3	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	15%	44%	4.2
4	Salve Regina University	13%	39%	4.4
5	University of New Hampshire	12%	38%	4.4
6	Boston University	9%	29%	5.0

Harman Cup

Maine Maritime · 09/12/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Tufts University	30%	72%	2.6
2	Boston University	20%	59%	3.2
3	Bowdoin College	19%	57%	3.3
4	Northeastern University	12%	42%	4.0
5	Maine Maritime Academy	9%	31%	4.6
6	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	4%	17%	5.6

Harry H. Anderson Jr. Trophy

Yale · 09/12/2026 · 17 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Brown University	18%	49%	4.4
2	Roger Williams University	15%	43%	4.9
3	Dartmouth College	13%	37%	5.4
4	Harvard University	12%	34%	5.7
5	Yale University	10%	30%	6.1
6	Boston College	6%	19%	7.6

SAISA Open Singlehanded Championship

U. Miami · 09/12/2026 · 5 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Jacksonville University	38%	96%	2.0
2	North Carolina State University	30%	94%	2.1
3	University of Miami	25%	85%	2.4
4	College of Charleston	5%	18%	4.2
5	University of Central Florida	2%	8%	4.3

Northeast Qualifier 1

Stony Brook · 09/13/2026 · 7 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	SUNY Maritime College	32%	80%	2.4
2	Columbia University	30%	75%	2.5
3	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	26%	75%	2.6
4	Hamilton College	6%	27%	4.3
5	SUNY Stony Brook	4%	20%	4.9
6	U. S. Military Academy	3%	17%	5.1

SAISA North Fall Tournament

UNC Wilmington · 09/13/2026 · 12 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	Clemson University	29%	68%	2.9
2	North Carolina State University	27%	68%	2.9
3	Vanderbilt University	22%	64%	3.1
4	University of Tennessee	7%	29%	5.0
5	University of South Carolina	5%	25%	5.5
6	Wake Forest University	3%	17%	6.3

SAISA South Fall Tournament

South Florida · 09/13/2026 · 10 schools · 5,000 simulations

	School	Win %	Top 3 %	Avg. rank
1	University of Central Florida	44%	99%	1.7
2	Eckerd College	36%	82%	2.3
3	University of Florida	7%	39%	4.0
4	Florida Institute of Technology	6%	34%	4.2
5	Embry-Riddle University	6%	29%	4.3
6	University of Miami	1%	11%	6.0