| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | 9–0 |
| 2 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 3–6 |
| 4 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 1,446 team race matches sailed before 2013-04-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 18 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.297 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.43 ± 0.42: an orderly event, more orderly than 87% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 1 | 5.71 school +0.27 | Nicholas Chong / Sara Stafford 1.35 Collin Weston / Brittney Crawford 2.15 Benjamin Kennady / Rachel Mcmahon 1.75 | 93% | 9–0 (100%) | +0.6 |
| 2 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 2 | 3.67 | Travis James / Megan Woodring Travis Conger / Katherine Biancardi Colin Feik / Jennifer Bender | 55% | 5–4 (56%) | +0.1 |
| 3 | Tulane University Green Wave | 3 | 2.72 home +0.36 | Alexandra Payne / Susan Herndon Jessica Oswalt / Lee Evans Jacob Shulist / Evan Kollath | 28% | 3–6 (33%) | +0.5 |
| 4 | University of Texas Longhorns | 4 | 2.50 | Ellen Nielsen / Marissa Morrison Masie Comen / Thomas Settle William Cragin / Dana Dinsmore | 24% | 1–8 (11%) | −1.2 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 5.71 | 8.71 | 9–0 | 8.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 53% |
| 3 | Tulane University | 2.72 | 3.04 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2 | Texas A&M University | 3.67 | 3.74 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 4 | University of Texas | 2.50 | 1.40 | 1–8 | 2.2 | −1.09 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Chong | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.35 | 4.35 | 9–0 | 8.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 53% |
| Collin Weston | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 2.15 | 5.15 | 9–0 | 8.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 53% |
| Benjamin Kennady | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.75 | 4.75 | 9–0 | 8.4 | ≥+3.00 | 0.9 | 53% |
| Alexandra Payne | Tulane University | 1.01 | 1.34 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Jessica Oswalt | Tulane University | 0.97 | 1.29 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Jacob Shulist | Tulane University | -0.17 | 0.16 | 3–6 | 2.5 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 49% |
| Travis James | Texas A&M University | 0.63 | 0.70 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Travis Conger | Texas A&M University | 0.67 | 0.74 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Colin Feik | Texas A&M University | 1.83 | 1.90 | 5–4 | 4.9 | +0.07 | 0.0 | 65% |
| Ellen Nielsen | University of Texas | 1.18 | 0.09 | 1–8 | 2.2 | −1.09 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Masie Comen | University of Texas | 0.69 | -0.40 | 1–8 | 2.2 | −1.09 | 0.9 | 94% |
| William Cragin | University of Texas | 0.08 | -1.01 | 1–8 | 2.2 | −1.09 | 0.9 | 94% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–2 | L | ✕ | L | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–1 | L | W | ✕ | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 DNF |
| 2 | |
Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Aggies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Aggies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Aggies | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 1-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Aggies | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Longhorns | 2-3-6 |
| 9 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 DNS |
| 10 | |
Aggies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 12 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Green Wave | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Longhorns | 1-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | Benjamin Kennady '13 Collin Weston '13 Nicholas Chong '13 |
Rachel Mcmahon '15 Brittney Crawford '15 Sara Stafford '15 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Colin Feik '13 Travis Conger '14 Travis James '13 |
Jennifer Bender '13 Katherine Biancardi '15 Megan Woodring '14 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Alexandra Payne '15 Jacob Shulist '13 Jessica Oswalt '16 |
Susan Herndon '15 Evan Kollath '15 Lee Evans '13 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Ellen Nielsen '15 Masie Comen '15 William Cragin '15 |
Marissa Morrison '15 Thomas Settle '15 Dana Dinsmore '14 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
