| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Northwestern University | Wildcats | 2–0 |
| 2 |  |
Miami University | Miami University | 1–1 |
| 3 |  |
Ohio State University | The Ohio State Univ. | 0–2 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,694 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 3 of 3 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.486 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northwestern University Wildcats | 1 | 0.54 school +0.24 | Carson Potter / Madeline Deysine Zachary Bannon / Yi Zhang Connor Schmitt / Aislinn Mcmillan -0.29 | 66% | 2–0 (100%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | Miami University Miami University | 2 | 0.14 home +0.34 | Otto Wenzler / Madison Eger Jose Avila / Brett Watson Max Burson / Lauren Stickland | 48% | 1–1 (50%) | +0.1 |
| 3 | Ohio State University The Ohio State Univ. | 3 | -0.05 | Andrew Lenzo / Connor Basile David Aspery / Anatoliy Kryvenko Monica Julian / No Show | 38% | 0–2 (0%) | −0.8 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northwestern University | 0.54 | 3.54 | 2–0 | 1.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.2 | 43% |
| 2 | Miami University | 0.14 | 0.25 | 1–1 | 0.9 | +0.11 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 3 | Ohio State University | -0.05 | -3.05 | 0–2 | 0.7 | ≤−3.00 | 1.3 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Northwestern University | Miami University | 60% | |
| 1 | 2 | Northwestern University | Ohio State University | 71% | |
| 1 | 3 | Miami University | Ohio State University | 55% |
| Team | Rec. | Wildcats | University | Univ. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern University Wildcats | 2–0 | ✕ | W | W |
| Miami University Miami University | 1–1 | L | ✕ | W |
| Ohio State University The Ohio State Univ. | 0–2 | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Miami University | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-4 | def. | |
The Ohio State Univ. | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Miami University | 1-2-4 | def. | |
The Ohio State Univ. | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Northwestern University | Wildcats | Carson Potter '14 Connor Schmitt '14 Zachary Bannon '14 |
Madeline Deysine '16 Aislinn Mcmillan '17 Yi Zhang '17 |
|
Miami University | Miami University | Jose Avila '15 Max Burson '16 Otto Wenzler '16 |
Brett Watson '14 Lauren Stickland '17 Madison Eger '16 |
|
Ohio State University | The Ohio State Univ. | Andrew Lenzo '16 David Aspery '16 Monica Julian '17 |
Connor Basile '17 Anatoliy Kryvenko '15 No Show |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
