| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | 7–2 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 7–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 2–7 |
| 4 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 2–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 3,730 team race matches sailed before 2014-04-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 14 of 18 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.442 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.41: a typical event, more orderly than 37% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 1 | 4.64 school −0.07 | Ryan Murphy / Rachel Mcmahon 1.41 Jacob Hafemeister / Kayla Sjoberg 1.21 Trey Hartman / Brittney Crawford 1.92 | 84% | 7–2 (78%) | −0.6 |
| 2 | Tulane University Green Wave | 2 | 4.01 | Alexandra Payne / Benjamin Kaplan 1.41 Michael Swanson / Sierra Orlowski Jessica Oswalt / Amanda Earl 1.08 | 71% | 7–2 (78%) | +0.6 |
| 3 | University of Texas Longhorns | 4 | 1.63 school −0.20, home +0.33 | Alexander Judd / Brinley Kranz Ashlynd Epstein / Hunter Ledonne Masie Comen / Michael Eiche 0.99 0–6 Masie Comen / Aubrey Leblanc 1.00 2–1 | 17% | 2–7 (22%) | +0.5 |
| 4 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 3 | 2.12 | Travis Conger / Sarah Turner 0.76 Erin Hawk / Stephanie Meals Megan Woodring / Christine Sicktich | 28% | 2–7 (22%) | −0.5 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tulane University | 4.01 | 4.51 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 3 | University of Texas | 1.63 | 2.05 | 2–7 | 1.5 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 4 | Texas A&M University | 2.12 | 1.70 | 2–7 | 2.5 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 4.64 | 4.14 | 7–2 | 7.6 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Payne | Tulane University | 1.41 | 1.91 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Michael Swanson | Tulane University | 1.01 | 1.51 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Jessica Oswalt | Tulane University | 1.08 | 1.58 | 7–2 | 6.4 | +0.50 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Alexander Judd | University of Texas | 0.35 | 0.76 | 2–7 | 1.5 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Masie Comen | University of Texas | 0.99 | 1.40 | 2–7 | 1.5 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Ashlynd Epstein | University of Texas | -0.36 | 0.06 | 2–7 | 1.5 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Travis Conger | Texas A&M University | 0.76 | 0.34 | 2–7 | 2.5 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Erin Hawk | Texas A&M University | 0.58 | 0.15 | 2–7 | 2.5 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Megan Woodring | Texas A&M University | 0.29 | -0.13 | 2–7 | 2.5 | −0.42 | 0.2 | 82% |
| Ryan Murphy | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.41 | 0.91 | 7–2 | 7.6 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Jacob Hafemeister | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.21 | 0.70 | 7–2 | 7.6 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 86% |
| Trey Hartman | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.92 | 1.42 | 7–2 | 7.6 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 86% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 3–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 0–3 | L | L | ✕ | L |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–2 | L | L | W | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 2–1 | ✕ | W | W | L |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–1 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–2 | W | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Aggies | 2-3-4 DSQ | def. | |
Green Wave | 1-5-6 DSQ |
| 10 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Longhorns | 2-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Green Wave | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 18 | |
Aggies | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | Jacob Hafemeister '16 Ryan Murphy '15 Trey Hartman '15 |
Kayla Sjoberg '14 Rachel Mcmahon '15 Brittney Crawford '15 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Alexandra Payne '15 Jessica Oswalt '16 Michael Swanson '16 |
Benjamin Kaplan '17 Amanda Earl '16 Sierra Orlowski '17 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Alexander Judd '16 Ashlynd Epstein '16 Masie Comen '15 |
Brinley Kranz '16 Hunter Ledonne '15 Michael Eiche '15 Aubrey Leblanc '14 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Erin Hawk '16 Megan Woodring '14 Travis Conger '14 |
Stephanie Meals '15 Christine Sicktich '15 Sarah Turner '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
