| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
University of Texas | Longhorns | 2–5 |
| 4 |  |
Texas A&M University | Aggies | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 5,709 team race matches sailed before 2015-04-25, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 12 of 14 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.362 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.08 ± 0.47: a typical event, more orderly than 51% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 1 | 5.85 school −0.23, home +0.26 | Jacob Hafemeister / Megan Ferguson 1.80 Dylan Marohn / Mariana Perrigo 1.66 Michael Sager / Alex Kraemer 2.21 | 92% | 6–1 (86%) | −0.4 |
| 2 | Tulane University Green Wave | 2 | 4.17 school −0.23 | Nick Watts / Brennan Dorsey 1.78 Jessica Oswalt / Malcolm Kriegel 1.16 John Corrigan / Addison Adams | 57% | 5–2 (71%) | +1.0 |
| 3 | University of Texas Longhorns | 4 | 2.06 school −0.16 | Ashlynd Epstein / Hunter Ledonne 0.23 Masie Comen / Thomas Settle 1.16 William Cragin / Brinley Kranz 0.71 | 23% | 2–5 (29%) | +0.4 |
| 4 | Texas A&M University Aggies | 3 | 2.23 school −0.12 | Erin Hawk / Christine Sicktich 1.10 Benjamin Lipari / Sarah Turner Christopher Suarez / Alexander Tyska | 27% | 1–6 (14%) | −0.9 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tulane University | 4.17 | 5.39 | 5–2 | 4.0 | +1.21 | 0.9 | 27% |
| 3 | University of Texas | 2.06 | 2.41 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 1 | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 5.85 | 5.16 | 6–1 | 6.4 | −0.69 | 0.2 | 90% |
| 4 | Texas A&M University | 2.23 | 1.20 | 1–6 | 1.9 | −1.03 | 0.6 | 93% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Watts | Tulane University | 1.78 | 2.99 | 5–2 | 4.0 | +1.21 | 0.9 | 27% |
| Jessica Oswalt | Tulane University | 1.16 | 2.37 | 5–2 | 4.0 | +1.21 | 0.9 | 27% |
| John Corrigan | Tulane University | 1.12 | 2.34 | 5–2 | 4.0 | +1.21 | 0.9 | 27% |
| Ashlynd Epstein | University of Texas | 0.23 | 0.59 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Masie Comen | University of Texas | 1.16 | 1.52 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 54% |
| William Cragin | University of Texas | 0.71 | 1.07 | 2–5 | 1.6 | +0.36 | 0.1 | 54% |
| Jacob Hafemeister | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 1.80 | 1.11 | 6–1 | 6.4 | −0.69 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Michael Sager | Texas A&M University at Galveston | 2.21 | 1.52 | 6–1 | 6.4 | −0.69 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Erin Hawk | Texas A&M University | 1.10 | 0.07 | 1–6 | 1.9 | −1.03 | 0.6 | 93% |
| Benjamin Lipari | Texas A&M University | 0.75 | -0.28 | 1–6 | 1.9 | −1.03 | 0.6 | 93% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 2–1 | ✕ | L | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 3–0 | W | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–2 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 0–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| Team | Rec. | Aggies | Wave | Longhorns | Aggies | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M University at Galveston Aggies | 4–0 | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 2–2 | L | ✕ | W | W |
| University of Texas Longhorns | 1–3 | L | L | ✕ | W |
| Texas A&M University Aggies | 1–3 | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Longhorns | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Longhorns | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Aggies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Aggies | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Aggies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 9 | |
Green Wave | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-3-6 |
| 10 | |
Aggies | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Aggies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Aggies | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Longhorns | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Aggies | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Longhorns | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Aggies | 2-4-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Texas A&M University at Galveston | Aggies | Dylan Marohn '16 Jacob Hafemeister '16 Michael Sager '15 |
Mariana Perrigo '18 Megan Ferguson '17 Alex Kraemer '16 |
|
Tulane University | Green Wave | Jessica Oswalt '16 John Corrigan '17 Nick Watts '18 |
Malcolm Kriegel '18 Addison Adams '17 Brennan Dorsey '16 |
|
University of Texas | Longhorns | Ashlynd Epstein '16 Masie Comen '15 William Cragin '15 |
Hunter Ledonne '15 Thomas Settle '15 Brinley Kranz '16 |
|
Texas A&M University | Aggies | Benjamin Lipari '18 Christopher Suarez '18 Erin Hawk '16 |
Sarah Turner '15 Alexander Tyska '18 Christine Sicktich '15 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
