Lake Macatawa Invitational

HostGrand Valley State/Hope
Date04/09/2016
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Michigan Technological University	Husky One	6	13	19
2	Hope College	Flying Dutchmen	13	13	26
3	University of Illinois - Chicago	Flames	13	24	37
4	Grand Valley State University	Lakers	19	18	37
5	University of Illinois	Illini	34	5	39
6	University of Chicago	Maroons	23	18	41
7	Northwestern University	Wildcats	18	26	44
8	Western Michigan University	Broncos	27	32	59
9	University of Iowa	Hawkeyes	28	31	59

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Michigan Technological University	Husky One	1	1	3	1	6	Jacob Henley '17 Nathan Miller '17
University of Illinois - Chicago	Flames	3	4	4	2	13	Brenden Jacobs '16 No Show
Hope College	Flying Dutchmen	6	2	2	3	13	Jeff Zita '16 [1-4] Brianna Dotson '19 [1-2] Jonathon Marty '19 [3-4]
Northwestern University	Wildcats	5	7	1	5	18	Susan Riley '17 Tristan Litre '18
Grand Valley State University	Lakers	4	3	6	6	19	Abigail Barnes '15 [1-2] No Show [3-4] No Show [1-2] Kristen Childs '17 [3-4]
University of Chicago	Maroons	2	5	8	8	23	Stephane Vinet '19 [1-2] Chuan Yin '18 [3-4] Chuan Yin '18 [1-2] Stephane Vinet '19 [3-4]
Western Michigan University	Broncos	7	8	5	7	27	Drake Hullinger '17 [1-4] Theo Saillant '17 [1-2] Jillian Vogley '19 [3-4]
University of Iowa	Hawkeyes	8	9	7	4	28	Maximilian Franze-Soeln '17 Jessica Roy '19
University of Illinois	Illini	9	6	9	DNF	34	Paul Detrempe '18 Bryan Wong '19

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
University of Illinois	Illini	1	1	1	2	5	Sisi He '19 Kent Takahara '18
Hope College	Flying Dutchmen	2	2	5	4	13	Evan Rodgers '16 [1-2] Caroline Ritter '18 [3-4] Martin Dykstra '18 [1-2] Emilie O'Connor '15 [3-4]
Michigan Technological University	Husky One	6	4	2	1	13	Nick Lane '16 Nicholas Harris '17
University of Chicago	Maroons	3	7	3	5	18	David Millstein '18 Caitlin Sheehan '18
Grand Valley State University	Lakers	5	3	7	3	18	Addison Amstutz '19 [1-2] Kate Cavataio '19 [3-4] Nichole Kievit '19 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
University of Illinois - Chicago	Flames	8	6	4	6	24	Jean-Philippe Backman '18 Brian Waddell '16
Northwestern University	Wildcats	4	5	8	9	26	Zachary Li '19 [1-2] Jonathan Atler '18 [3-4] Hannah Givertz '18 [1-2] Helen Feeney '19 [3-4]
University of Iowa	Hawkeyes	9	9	6	7	31	Caitlin Chenus '19 [1-2] Sarah Caporelli '19 [3-4] Emma Jordan-Wood '19 [1-2] Kyle Brooks '19 [3-4]
Western Michigan University	Broncos	7	8	9	8	32	Jillian Vogley '19 Joshua Spano '21

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.060+0.06

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
University of Chicago Maroons	5	5	7	7
Grand Valley State University Lakers	1	1	3	3
Hope College Flying Dutchmen	2	2	4	4
University of Illinois Illini	6	6	80	80
University of Illinois - Chicago Flames	7	7	3647	3647
University of Iowa Hawkeyes	80	80	1	1
Michigan Technological University Husky One	3	3	5	5
Northwestern University Wildcats	4	4	6	6
Western Michigan University Broncos	3647	3647	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
University of Chicago Maroons	6	6	80	80
Grand Valley State University Lakers	2	2	4	4
Hope College Flying Dutchmen	3	3	5	5
University of Illinois Illini	7	7	3647	3647
University of Illinois - Chicago Flames	80	80	1	1
University of Iowa Hawkeyes	3647	3647	2	2
Michigan Technological University Husky One	4	4	6	6
Northwestern University Wildcats	5	5	7	7
Western Michigan University Broncos	1	1	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Grand Valley State University	Abigail Barnes '15 [1-2] No Show [3-4]	No Show [1-2] Kristen Childs '17 [3-4]
Lakers	Addison Amstutz '19 [1-2] Kate Cavataio '19 [3-4]	Nichole Kievit '19 [1-2] No Show [3-4]
Hope College	Jeff Zita '16 [1-4]	Brianna Dotson '19 [1-2] Jonathon Marty '19 [3-4]
Flying Dutchmen	Evan Rodgers '16 [1-2] Caroline Ritter '18 [3-4]	Martin Dykstra '18 [1-2] Emilie O'Connor '15 [3-4]
Michigan Technological University	Jacob Henley '17	Nathan Miller '17
Husky One	Nick Lane '16	Nicholas Harris '17
Northwestern University	Susan Riley '17	Tristan Litre '18
Wildcats	Zachary Li '19 [1-2] Jonathan Atler '18 [3-4]	Hannah Givertz '18 [1-2] Helen Feeney '19 [3-4]
University of Chicago	Stephane Vinet '19 [1-2] Chuan Yin '18 [3-4]	Chuan Yin '18 [1-2] Stephane Vinet '19 [3-4]
Maroons	David Millstein '18	Caitlin Sheehan '18
University of Illinois	Paul Detrempe '18	Bryan Wong '19
Illini	Sisi He '19	Kent Takahara '18
University of Illinois - Chicago	Brenden Jacobs '16	No Show
Flames	Jean-Philippe Backman '18	Brian Waddell '16
University of Iowa	Maximilian Franze-Soeln '17	Jessica Roy '19
Hawkeyes	Caitlin Chenus '19 [1-2] Sarah Caporelli '19 [3-4]	Emma Jordan-Wood '19 [1-2] Kyle Brooks '19 [3-4]
Western Michigan University	Drake Hullinger '17 [1-4]	Theo Saillant '17 [1-2] Jillian Vogley '19 [3-4]
Broncos	Jillian Vogley '19	Joshua Spano '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Lake Macatawa Invitational

Division A

Division B

From the notes