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2026 Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (J22)

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 12 12
2 University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 13 13
3 University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 19 19
4 College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 19 19
5 Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 22 22
6 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 32 32
7 Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 32 32
8 University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 33 33
9 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 43 43
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT
University of Michigan University of Michigan Wolverines 1 2 2 5 2 12
University of Tennessee University of Tennessee Volunteers 4 3 1 2 3 13
University of Chicago University of Chicago Maroons 3 1 5 4 6 19
College of Charleston College of Charleston Cougars 5 8 4 1 1 19
Embry-Riddle University Embry-Riddle University Eagles 2 6 3 3 8 22
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 6 4 9 8 5 32
Florida Institute of Technology Florida Institute of Technology Panthers 9 7 6 6 4 32
University of South Carolina University of South Carolina Gamecocks 7 5 7 7 7 33
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 8 9 8 9 9 43

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the keelboat rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.41 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 0.47); 0.28 × the mean fleet rating of the rated crew aboard; the skipper's own keelboat offset; the school's program effect. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 207 ICSA sailors with a keelboat rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The keelboat offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A  9 boats · 5 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Graham Rebain '29University of Michigan5/51.222.32+1.0983rd → 99th2.112%2.4 / 4.0
2Jack Riley '29University of Tennessee5/50.962.41+1.4572nd → 99th3.810%2.6 / 4.5
3Charlie Allen '28College of Charleston5/52.510.78−1.7299th → 64th8.091%3.8 / 2.4
3James Leavitt '27University of Chicago5/51.121.35+0.2378th → 87th0.143%3.8 / 4.2
5Christopher Cunha '28Embry-Riddle University5/5-0.201.17+1.379th → 79th3.512%4.4 / 6.2
6Oscar McMahan '28Stevens Institute of Technology5/5-0.31-0.00+0.315th → 16th0.251%6.4 / 6.4
6William Mullray '26Florida Institute of Technology5/50.030.26+0.2317th → 37th0.165%6.4 / 5.9
8Henry Elmore '29University of South Carolina5/50.600.16−0.4454th → 22nd0.689%6.6 / 4.9
9Sophia Dimont '27SUNY Stony Brook5/5-0.37-1.39−1.024th → 1st1.798%8.6 / 6.4

Conditions — 02/14/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1024.5 hPa

Temperature

53°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.2 kn
avg  ·  max 6.8 kn
Gusts to 15.4 kn
From E (98°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover22% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1024.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: E about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →