2014 Norcal 3 Gold

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date10/19/2014
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Redwood	Giants 1	28	28
2	Alameda High School	Varsity 2	43	43
3	Miramonte High School	Matadors	45	45
4	Archie Williams High School	Varsity 1	45	45
5	Stevenson School	Varsity	48	48
6	Woodside High School	Wildcat	55	55
7	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	68	68
8	Redwood	Giants 2	69	69
9	The Athenian School	Owls	73	73
10	Marin Academy	Wildcats	73	73
11	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	73	73
12	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	75	75
13	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	81	81
14	Archie Williams High School	Varsity 2	114	114
15	Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	114	114
16	Redwood	Giants 3	114	114
17	Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	114	114
18	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	115	115
19	Lynbrook High School	Vikings	116	116
20	Berkeley High School	Varsity	119	119
21	Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	122	122
22	Alameda High School	Varsity 3	122	122
23	The Urban School	Varsity	128	128
24	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 3	128	128
25	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	129	129
26	Redwood	Giants 4	133	133
27	Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	134	134
28	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	136	136
29	Alameda High School	Varsity 1	150	150
30	Aptos High School	Varsity	150	150
31	The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	156	156
32	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	164	164
33	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	177	177
34	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	179	179
35	Redwood	Giants 5	190	190

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Redwood	Giants 1	3	1	9	12	2	1	28	Ted Bascom '15 Chloe Belgum '16
Alameda High School	Varsity 2	6	7	8	9	10	3	43	Aitor Iriso '17 Noelle Siriot '16
Miramonte High School	Matadors	2	2	10	25	4	2	45	Kai Otsmaa '17 Molly Colwell '16
Archie Williams High School	Varsity 1	8	10	1	1	16	9	45	Dylan Meade '16 Antonio Mejia '16
Stevenson School	Varsity	1	8	22	7	5	5	48	Stuart Henry '17 Lance Zhou '15
Woodside High School	Wildcat	14	4	2	8	8	19	55	Patrick Wilkinson '16 Judith Politi '21
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	7	6	3	27	9	16	68	Will Paulsen '15 Paige Dunlevy '16
Redwood	Giants 2	4	33	18	2	1	11	69	Harry Schmidt '16 Liam Farese '18
The Athenian School	Owls	12	13	7	28	3	10	73	Xavier Theo Quinn '16 [1-6] Jackson Kaplan '17 [1-5] Jacob (Jake) Glenn '17 [6]
Marin Academy	Wildcats	18	5	5	6	21	18	73	Alyson Crowley '16 Madeline Kuhn '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	19	3	11	10	13	17	73	Keith Roehl '15 John Deruff '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	10	15	15	16	11	8	75	Hayden Potter '16 Francis Streitman '17
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	16	26	4	3	25	7	81	Paloma Palmer '15 Lulu Desai '18
Archie Williams High School	Varsity 2	9	18	14	22	20	31	114	Sam Barton '17 Delaney Hunt '17
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	11	23	20	14	31	15	114	Elizabeth Avdanina '16 Anthony Xie '19
Redwood	Giants 3	22	9	17	21	32	13	114	Tommy Young '18 Kaelin Stock '18
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	26	14	23	13	18	20	114	Victoria Oldham '16 [1-6] Meghan Oldham '18 [1-5] Caroline Kraetzer '19 [6]
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	28	20	21	34	6	6	115	Amanda Wheeler '25 Luke Probst '26
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	5	12	27	15	30	27	116	Thomas Samuels '17 Madeleine Roman '22
Berkeley High School	Varsity	32	30	26	4	15	12	119	Bear Lundegaard '15 Stuart Myers '17
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	17	29	12	30	12	22	122	Nicklas Gardner '15 Eneko Iriso '19
Alameda High School	Varsity 3	27	24	13	18	17	23	122	Drake Hayes '17 Brendan Mills '18
The Urban School	Varsity	20	19	25	31	7	26	128	Cayley Crist '17 Sophie Weir '15
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 3	34	21	6	17	22	28	128	Coco Dana '17 Michael Kastner '16
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	30	28	16	11	14	30	129	Michael Pacholski '15 Alec Theys '16
Redwood	Giants 4	21	11	19	24	33	25	133	Michael Brandon '16 Kali Gibbs '18
Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	13	16	35	26	23	21	134	Mark Power '15 Jacob Kowalski '19
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	15	27	32	32	26	4	136	Julian Martinez-Prado '15 Duncan Robertson '18
Alameda High School	Varsity 1	24	25	24	20	28	29	150	Miles Orozco '16 Calder Hartigan '18
Aptos High School	Varsity	35	22	31	5	24	33	150	Isabel Andrew '16 Sam Bach '19
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	31	17	28	29	19	32	156	Sebastian Sponholtz '16 Leo Findlay '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	25	31	34	33	27	14	164	Sumner Strumph '17 William Hale '18
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	23	34	29	23	34	34	177	Andy Strike '16 Kate Hofele '17
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	29	32	30	35	29	24	179	Parker Klebahn '17 Brock Pola '26
Redwood	Giants 5	33	35	33	19	35	35	190	Julian Weisswasser '15 Georgia Mavromihalis '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Alameda High School Varsity 1	55	55	55	55	55	55
Alameda High School Varsity 2	54	54	54	54	54	54
Alameda High School Varsity 3	53	53	53	53	53	53
Aptos High School Varsity	110	110	110	110	110	110
Berkeley High School Varsity	59	59	59	59	59	59
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	52	52	52	52	52	52
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	10	10	10	10	10	10
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	9	9	9	9	9	9
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 3	8	8	8	8	8	8
Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	30	30	30	30	30	30
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	7	7	7	7	7	7
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5	5
Lynbrook High School Vikings	31	31	31	31	31	31
Marin Academy Wildcats	15	15	15	15	15	15
Miramonte High School Matadors	57	57	57	57	57	57
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA Varsity	42	42	42	42	42	42
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 1	101	101	101	101	101	101
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 2	106	106	106	106	106	106
Redwood Giants 1	18	18	18	18	18	18
Redwood Giants 2	124	124	124	124	124	124
Redwood Giants 3	122	122	122	122	122	122
Redwood Giants 4	123	123	123	123	123	123
Redwood Giants 5	20	20	20	20	20	20
Junipero Serra High School JSerra	34	34	34	34	34	34
Archie Williams High School Varsity 1	96	96	96	96	96	96
Archie Williams High School Varsity 2	60	60	60	60	60	60
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	58	58	58	58	58	58
Stevenson School Varsity	97	97	97	97	97	97
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	134	134	134	134	134	134
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	133	133	133	133	133	133
The Athenian School Owls	56	56	56	56	56	56
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	83	83	83	83	83	83
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82	82
The Urban School Varsity	1	1	1	1	1	1
Woodside High School Wildcat	33	33	33	33	33	33

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Varsity 1	Miles Orozco '16	Calder Hartigan '18
Alameda High School	Varsity 2	Aitor Iriso '17	Noelle Siriot '16
Alameda High School	Varsity 3	Drake Hayes '17	Brendan Mills '18
Aptos High School	Varsity	Isabel Andrew '16	Sam Bach '19
Archie Williams High School	Varsity 1	Dylan Meade '16	Antonio Mejia '16
Archie Williams High School	Varsity 2	Sam Barton '17	Delaney Hunt '17
Berkeley High School	Varsity	Bear Lundegaard '15	Stuart Myers '17
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	Nicklas Gardner '15	Eneko Iriso '19
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	Paloma Palmer '15	Lulu Desai '18
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	Will Paulsen '15	Paige Dunlevy '16
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 3	Coco Dana '17	Michael Kastner '16
Henry M. Gunn High School	Titans	Elizabeth Avdanina '16	Anthony Xie '19
Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	Mark Power '15	Jacob Kowalski '19
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Parker Klebahn '17	Brock Pola '26
Lynbrook High School	Vikings	Thomas Samuels '17	Madeleine Roman '22
Marin Academy	Wildcats	Alyson Crowley '16	Madeline Kuhn '16
Miramonte High School	Matadors	Kai Otsmaa '17	Molly Colwell '16
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	Victoria Oldham '16 [1-6]	Meghan Oldham '18 [1-5] Caroline Kraetzer '19 [6]
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	Michael Pacholski '15	Alec Theys '16
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	Julian Martinez-Prado '15	Duncan Robertson '18
Redwood	Giants 1	Ted Bascom '15	Chloe Belgum '16
Redwood	Giants 2	Harry Schmidt '16	Liam Farese '18
Redwood	Giants 3	Tommy Young '18	Kaelin Stock '18
Redwood	Giants 4	Michael Brandon '16	Kali Gibbs '18
Redwood	Giants 5	Julian Weisswasser '15	Georgia Mavromihalis '17
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	Amanda Wheeler '25	Luke Probst '26
Stevenson School	Varsity	Stuart Henry '17	Lance Zhou '15
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Hayden Potter '16	Francis Streitman '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Andy Strike '16	Kate Hofele '17
The Athenian School	Owls	Xavier Theo Quinn '16 [1-6]	Jackson Kaplan '17 [1-5] Jacob (Jake) Glenn '17 [6]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Keith Roehl '15	John Deruff '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Sumner Strumph '17	William Hale '18
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	Sebastian Sponholtz '16	Leo Findlay '16
The Urban School	Varsity	Cayley Crist '17	Sophie Weir '15
Woodside High School	Wildcat	Patrick Wilkinson '16	Judith Politi '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2014 Norcal 3 Gold

Division A

From the notes