2014 Norcal 3 Silver

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date10/19/2014
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 2	33	33
2	Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	39	39
3	Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	41	41
4	Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	45	45
5	Aptos High School	Varsity 2	49	49
6	Miramonte High School	Matadors	58	58
7	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs 1	60	60
8	Menlo-Atherton	Varsity	62	62
9	Harbor High School	Harbor Pirates	68	68
10	Aptos High School	Varsity 1	69	69
11	Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	71	71
12	Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 1	72	72
13	Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	74	74
14	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	85	85
15	Los Gatos High School	Varsity	85	85
16	Monte Vista High School	Mustangs 2	94	94
17	Pacific Grove High School	Varsity	103	103
18	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	105	105
19	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity 1	109	109
20	Sequoia High School	Cherokees	117	117
21	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 3	119	119
22	The Athenian School	Owls	120	120
23	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 1	125	125
24	Archie Williams High School	Varsity	134	134
25	Menlo School	Varsity	134	134
26	Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 2	144	144
27	Davis High School	Blue Devils	145	145
28	Delta Middle College	Varsity	147	147
29	Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	151	151
30	Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity 2	172	172
31	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	175	175
32	The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	181	181
33	Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	189	189

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	TOT	Sailors
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 2	12	6	2	1	2	10	33	Josselyn Verutti '17 Flora Van Der Schoot '16
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	2	16	4	2	14	1	39	Simon Boeger '19 Sam Showalter '18
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	16	2	7	8	6	2	41	Pacal Hines '16 Armand Dechant '17
Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	9	5	3	4	8	16	45	Ryter Ullrich '18 Daniel Warner '18
Aptos High School	Varsity 2	4	1	8	19	5	12	49	Trevor Foley '18 Spencer Frawley '16
Miramonte High School	Matadors	7	9	5	13	20	4	58	Thomas Erisman '19 Daniel Erisman '19
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs 1	1	7	16	10	12	14	60	Michael Lively '18 Thomas Laskarzewski '18
Menlo-Atherton	Varsity	14	17	1	23	4	3	62	Grace Tully '17 Dorothy Aldridge '17
Harbor High School	Harbor Pirates	21	4	21	14	1	7	68	Ian Collignon '16 Chloe Long '19
Aptos High School	Varsity 1	8	8	18	6	11	18	69	Dana Foley '18 Madeline Miller '16
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	6	12	24	3	15	11	71	James Guiraud '15 Nikolas Vavloukis '18
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 1	13	11	10	16	9	13	72	Olivia Beers '17 Ben Risley '17
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	18	3	6	9	21	17	74	Kate Chandler '17 Amy Ely '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	10	10	20	12	7	26	85	Shaw Lenox '16 [1-6] Arthur Wechsler '18 [1-3] Ryan Treais '17 [4-6]
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	20	20	13	5	22	5	85	Max Testa '15 Lilah Foster '17
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs 2	5	13	27	20	10	19	94	John Dilella '18 Thomas Zenner '19
Pacific Grove High School	Varsity	3	19	25	15	17	24	103	Dalton Muck '19 Zoe Gleason '21
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	26	18	23	27	3	8	105	Jonar Tanguilig '16 Nicholas Dorn '18
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity 1	29	14	19	22	19	6	109	Marisa De Souza '15 Tiffany Xi '15
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	23	15	14	18	26	21	117	Christian Brown '18 Nina Heller '19
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 3	27	26	15	7	16	28	119	Grant Hallee '15 Nathan Nakahara '16
The Athenian School	Owls	17	27	12	24	13	27	120	Gabrielle (Gabby) Rigby '15 Jonah Kirmse '17
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 1	22	21	9	11	29	33	125	Derek Makovich '16 Radley Peschel '16
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	11	28	17	17	31	30	134	Cody Ocallahan '21 Elisabeth Elliot '15
Menlo School	Varsity	30	23	26	28	18	9	134	Bjorn Antell '17 Ginny Aldridge '20
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 2	28	24	11	31	28	22	144	Peter Werner '17 Jasper Trouerbach '16
Davis High School	Blue Devils	24	30	22	25	24	20	145	James Locker '16 Jacob Miller '17
Delta Middle College	Varsity	15	31	OCS	26	23	15	147	Marcos Mcgee '17 Justin Flores '17
Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	19	22	DNF	21	27	25	151	Santiago Calderon '15 Kristen Zarembinski '19
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity 2	25	32	30	32	30	23	172	Wiley Yu '18 Jonathan Fisher '17
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	32	29	28	30	25	31	175	Thomas Fredericks '17 Jori Felici '17
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	31	25	31	33	32	29	181	Lena Fisher '18 Jade Greer '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	33	33	29	29	33	32	189	Raffi Altman-Allen '16 Oscar Thompson '18

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Aptos High School Varsity 1	104	104	104	104	104	104
Aptos High School Varsity 2	108	108	108	108	108	108
Berkeley High School Varsity 1	64	64	64	64	64	64
Berkeley High School Varsity 2	95	95	95	95	95	95
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	48	48	48	48	48	48
Campolindo High School Cougars 1	51	51	51	51	51	51
Campolindo High School Cougars 2	47	47	47	47	47	47
Crystal Springs Uplands School Varsity 1	22	22	22	22	22	22
Crystal Springs Uplands School Varsity 2	26	26	26	26	26	26
Davis High School Blue Devils	125	125	125	125	125	125
Delta Middle College Varsity	132	132	132	132	132	132
Harbor High School Harbor Pirates	109	109	109	109	109	109
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	6	6	6	6	6	6
Kirby School Kirby Varsity 1	102	102	102	102	102	102
Kirby School Kirby Varsity 2	103	103	103	103	103	103
Los Gatos High School Varsity	107	107	107	107	107	107
Lycee Francais de San Francisco Varsity	4	4	4	4	4	4
Menlo School Varsity	32	32	32	32	32	32
Menlo-Atherton Varsity	27	27	27	27	27	27
Miramonte High School Matadors	46	46	46	46	46	46
Monte Vista High School Mustangs 1	49	49	49	49	49	49
Monte Vista High School Mustangs 2	44	44	44	44	44	44
Monte Vista Christian School Monte Vista Mustangs	105	105	105	105	105	105
Pacific Grove High School Varsity	14	14	14	14	14	14
Sequoia High School Cherokees	29	29	29	29	29	29
Archie Williams High School Varsity	67	67	67	67	67	67
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco Varsity	3	3	3	3	3	3
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity 1	25	25	25	25	25	25
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity 2	24	24	24	24	24	24
Summit High School - Redwood, CA Varsity 3	28	28	28	28	28	28
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	77	77	77	77	77	77
The Athenian School Owls	50	50	50	50	50	50
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	81	81	81	81	81	81

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Aptos High School	Varsity 1	Dana Foley '18	Madeline Miller '16
Aptos High School	Varsity 2	Trevor Foley '18	Spencer Frawley '16
Archie Williams High School	Varsity	Cody Ocallahan '21	Elisabeth Elliot '15
Berkeley High School	Varsity 1	James Guiraud '15	Nikolas Vavloukis '18
Berkeley High School	Varsity 2	Raffi Altman-Allen '16	Oscar Thompson '18
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	Simon Boeger '19	Sam Showalter '18
Campolindo High School	Cougars 1	Santiago Calderon '15	Kristen Zarembinski '19
Campolindo High School	Cougars 2	Ryter Ullrich '18	Daniel Warner '18
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity 1	Marisa De Souza '15	Tiffany Xi '15
Crystal Springs Uplands School	Varsity 2	Wiley Yu '18	Jonathan Fisher '17
Davis High School	Blue Devils	James Locker '16	Jacob Miller '17
Delta Middle College	Varsity	Marcos Mcgee '17	Justin Flores '17
Harbor High School	Harbor Pirates	Ian Collignon '16	Chloe Long '19
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 1	Olivia Beers '17	Ben Risley '17
Kirby School	Kirby Varsity 2	Josselyn Verutti '17	Flora Van Der Schoot '16
Los Gatos High School	Varsity	Max Testa '15	Lilah Foster '17
Lycee Francais de San Francisco	Varsity	Pacal Hines '16	Armand Dechant '17
Menlo School	Varsity	Bjorn Antell '17	Ginny Aldridge '20
Menlo-Atherton	Varsity	Grace Tully '17	Dorothy Aldridge '17
Miramonte High School	Matadors	Thomas Erisman '19	Daniel Erisman '19
Monte Vista Christian School	Monte Vista Mustangs	Kate Chandler '17	Amy Ely '16
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs 1	Michael Lively '18	Thomas Laskarzewski '18
Monte Vista High School	Mustangs 2	John Dilella '18	Thomas Zenner '19
Pacific Grove High School	Varsity	Dalton Muck '19	Zoe Gleason '21
Sequoia High School	Cherokees	Christian Brown '18	Nina Heller '19
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Varsity	Jonar Tanguilig '16	Nicholas Dorn '18
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 1	Derek Makovich '16	Radley Peschel '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 2	Peter Werner '17	Jasper Trouerbach '16
Summit High School - Redwood, CA	Varsity 3	Grant Hallee '15	Nathan Nakahara '16
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks	Thomas Fredericks '17	Jori Felici '17
The Athenian School	Owls	Gabrielle (Gabby) Rigby '15	Jonah Kirmse '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Shaw Lenox '16 [1-6]	Arthur Wechsler '18 [1-3] Ryan Treais '17 [4-6]
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	Lena Fisher '18	Jade Greer '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2014 Norcal 3 Silver

Division A

From the notes