Great Oaks Invitational Blue Fleet

HostSouthern Yacht Club
Date11/22/2014
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	14	14
2	Metairie Park Country Day School	Varsity	17	17
3	Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	18	18
4	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	20	20
5	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	24	24
6	Spring Lake High School	Red	31	31
7	Southern Regional High School	Rams	32	32
8	Cape Elizabeth High School	Varsity	39	39
9	Ocean Springs High School	Varsity	45	45
10	Lincoln High School (OR)	Cardinals	45	45
11	Ben Franklin High School	Benjamin Franklin	50	50
12	Clear Falls High School	Knights	63	63
13	St. Thomas' Episcopal	Saints	67	67
14	Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	70	70
15	Brother Martin	Varsity	78	78
16	Gulfport High School	Varsity	81	81
17	Fairhope High School	Varsity	85	85
18	Louise S. McGehee	Hawksa	91	91
19	Mount Carmel Academy	Competitive team	95	95
20	Ursuline Academy	Varsity	103	103

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	4	1	4	4	1	14	Wade Wagner '15 [1-5] Sabina Van Mel '15 [1-4] Gloria Kevliciute '17 [5]
Metairie Park Country Day School	Varsity	3	2	2	7	3	17	Pierce De Boisblanc '15 Kevin Mckee '16
Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	5	3	5	3	2	18	Ian Macdiarmid '17 Shani Scwartz '15
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	2	4	1	9	4	20	Jack Johansson '17 [1-5] Benito Guido '16 [1-4] Timothy Kaplan '16 [5]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	1	5	7	2	9	24	Max Thompson '15 Jacob Thompson '18
Spring Lake High School	Red	10	7	3	1	10	31	Rachel Rantanen '15 [1-2, 5] Frank Reeg '15 [3-4] Tommy Clover '17 [1-2, 5] Caleb Boon '17 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	9	6	5	6	32	Emily Haig '17 [1-3, 5] Jake Ellis '15 [4] Jake Ellis '15 [1-3] Sam Westby '16 [4] Lauren Beattie '15 [5]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Varsity	8	8	8	8	7	39	Cooper Siepert '16 [1, 3, 5] Greg Corsello '16 [2, 4] William Gent '16 [1, 3, 5] Tucker Wanzer '16 [2, 4]
Ocean Springs High School	Varsity	9	12	13	6	5	45	Wesley (Crew) Stanley '16 [1-5] Jake Freeman '16 [1-2] Haley Baker '17 [3-4] Haydn Brown '16 [5]
Lincoln High School (OR)	Cardinals	12	6	9	10	8	45	Drew Bennett '15 [1-2, 5] Matthew Reynolds '16 [3-4] Maddy Nicoloff '15 [1-2, 5] Gavin Ross '16 [3-4]
Ben Franklin High School	Benjamin Franklin	7	10	10	12	11	50	Alexander Ergun '15 [1-5] Kathrine Robinson '15 [1-2, 4] Jaque Boudreaux '15 [3, 5]
Clear Falls High School	Knights	11	11	16	13	12	63	Doug Byerly '18 Jack Stancil '18
St. Thomas' Episcopal	Saints	15	13	12	14	13	67	Celia Houston '19 Valerie Herrscher '16
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	13	DNS	11	11	BYE	70	G. Alex White '16 David Robertson '17
Brother Martin	Varsity	14	17	18	15	14	78	Gabriel Cespedes '15 [1-2, 4-5] Jack Walsten '18 [3] Kevin Broadbridge '15 [1-2, 4-5] Jack Altman '18 [3]
Gulfport High School	Varsity	16	14	14	BYE	DNS	81	Dawson Doucet '18 Lilly Nolte '16
Fairhope High School	Varsity	17	16	15	16	DNS	85	Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-2] Caleb Milham '17 [3-4] Max Morgan '18 [5] Saunders Fitzgerald '17 [1-2] Gracyn Myers '18 [3-4] Sam Koser '18 [5]
Louise S. McGehee	Hawksa	18	18	17	17	DNS	91	Amelie Lagarde '16 [1-5] Lucy Terranova '17 [1-2, 5] Julieta Barreto '15 [3-4]
Mount Carmel Academy	Competitive team	19	15	19	DNF	DNS	95	Sydney Huth '15 [1-2, 5] Vivian Cerruti '24 [3-4] Madison Larrieu '19 [1-2] Kate Moise '19 [3-4] Molly Lagarde '24 [5]
Ursuline Academy	Varsity	20	DNF	20	DNS	DNS	103	Amanda Demesia '17 Kaitlin Daly '17

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin	2	4	6	8	10
Brother Martin Varsity	36	38	40	2	4
Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity	38	40	2	4	6
Clear Falls High School Knights	18	20	22	24	26
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	20	22	24	26	28
Fairhope High School Varsity	32	34	36	38	40
Gulfport High School Varsity	8	10	12	14	16
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	34	36	38	40	2
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	26	28	30	32	34
Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	14	16	18	20	22
Louise S. McGehee Hawksa	40	2	4	6	8
Metairie Park Country Day School Varsity	16	18	20	22	24
Mount Carmel Academy Competitive team	10	12	14	16	18
Ocean Springs High School Varsity	30	32	34	36	38
Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves	4	6	8	10	12
St. Thomas' Episcopal Saints	28	30	32	34	36
Southern Regional High School Rams	24	26	28	30	32
Spring Lake High School Red	12	14	16	18	20
Ursuline Academy Varsity	22	24	26	28	30
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	6	8	10	12	14

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Ben Franklin High School	Benjamin Franklin	Alexander Ergun '15 [1-5]	Kathrine Robinson '15 [1-2, 4] Jaque Boudreaux '15 [3, 5]
Brother Martin	Varsity	Gabriel Cespedes '15 [1-2, 4-5] Jack Walsten '18 [3]	Kevin Broadbridge '15 [1-2, 4-5] Jack Altman '18 [3]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Varsity	Cooper Siepert '16 [1, 3, 5] Greg Corsello '16 [2, 4]	William Gent '16 [1, 3, 5] Tucker Wanzer '16 [2, 4]
Clear Falls High School	Knights	Doug Byerly '18	Jack Stancil '18
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	G. Alex White '16	David Robertson '17
Fairhope High School	Varsity	Camille Mcgriff '18 [1-2] Caleb Milham '17 [3-4] Max Morgan '18 [5]	Saunders Fitzgerald '17 [1-2] Gracyn Myers '18 [3-4] Sam Koser '18 [5]
Gulfport High School	Varsity	Dawson Doucet '18	Lilly Nolte '16
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	Jack Johansson '17 [1-5]	Benito Guido '16 [1-4] Timothy Kaplan '16 [5]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	Max Thompson '15	Jacob Thompson '18
Lincoln High School (OR)	Cardinals	Drew Bennett '15 [1-2, 5] Matthew Reynolds '16 [3-4]	Maddy Nicoloff '15 [1-2, 5] Gavin Ross '16 [3-4]
Louise S. McGehee	Hawksa	Amelie Lagarde '16 [1-5]	Lucy Terranova '17 [1-2, 5] Julieta Barreto '15 [3-4]
Metairie Park Country Day School	Varsity	Pierce De Boisblanc '15	Kevin Mckee '16
Mount Carmel Academy	Competitive team	Sydney Huth '15 [1-2, 5] Vivian Cerruti '24 [3-4]	Madison Larrieu '19 [1-2] Kate Moise '19 [3-4] Molly Lagarde '24 [5]
Ocean Springs High School	Varsity	Wesley (Crew) Stanley '16 [1-5]	Jake Freeman '16 [1-2] Haley Baker '17 [3-4] Haydn Brown '16 [5]
Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	Ian Macdiarmid '17	Shani Scwartz '15
Southern Regional High School	Rams	Emily Haig '17 [1-3, 5] Jake Ellis '15 [4]	Jake Ellis '15 [1-3] Sam Westby '16 [4] Lauren Beattie '15 [5]
Spring Lake High School	Red	Rachel Rantanen '15 [1-2, 5] Frank Reeg '15 [3-4]	Tommy Clover '17 [1-2, 5] Caleb Boon '17 [3-4]
St. Thomas' Episcopal	Saints	Celia Houston '19	Valerie Herrscher '16
Ursuline Academy	Varsity	Amanda Demesia '17	Kaitlin Daly '17
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	Wade Wagner '15 [1-5]	Sabina Van Mel '15 [1-4] Gloria Kevliciute '17 [5]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Great Oaks Invitational Blue Fleet

Division A

From the notes