Great Oaks Invitational Gold Round

HostSouthern Yacht Club
Date11/23/2014
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	17	17
2	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	19	19
3	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	25	25
4	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	25	25
5	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	26	26
6	Metairie Park Country Day School	Varsity	31	31
7	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	34	34
8	Cape Elizabeth High School	Varsity	34	34
9	Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	35	35
10	Spring Lake High School	Red	41	41
11	Ocean Springs High School	Varsity	42	42
12	Beaufort High School	Varsity	45	45
13	Good Hope County Day School	Varsity	46	46
14	Wando High School	Varsity	48	48
15	Lutheran South Academy	Varsity	49	49
16	Ft. Walton Beach High School	Varsity	57	57
17	St. Patrick Catholic High School	Fighting Irish	59	59
18	Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	62	62
19	The Stony Brook School	Bears	64	64
20	Osceola Fundamental High School	Varsity	69	69

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	7	6	1	17	Emily Haig '17 Jake Ellis '15
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	2	10	3	4	19	Jack Johansson '17 [1-4] Benito Guido '16 [1-2] Timothy Kaplan '16 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	5	2	12	6	25	Max Thompson '15 [1-4] Jacob Thompson '18 [1-2] William Bowden '16 [3-4]
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	9	9	5	2	25	Mark Davies '16 Will Davies '18
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	4	13	2	7	26	Wade Wagner '15 [1-4] Gloria Kevliciute '17 [1, 3-4] Sabina Van Mel '15 [2]
Metairie Park Country Day School	Varsity	14	11	1	5	31	Pierce De Boisblanc '15 Kevin Mckee '16
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	1	8	14	11	34	Drew Bennett '15 [1-2] Matthew Reynolds '16 [3-4] Maddy Nicoloff '15 [1-2] Gavin Ross '16 [3-4]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Varsity	10	4	8	12	34	Greg Corsello '16 [1-2] Cooper Siepert '16 [3-4] Tucker Wanzer '16 [1-2] William Gent '16 [3-4]
Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	8	3	15	9	35	Ian Macdiarmid '17 [1-4] Shani Scwartz '15 [1, 3-4] Alex Commette '17 [2]
Spring Lake High School	Red	19	5	4	13	41	Frank Reeg '15 [1-4] Caleb Boon '17 [1, 3-4] Rachel Rantanen '15 [2]
Ocean Springs High School	Varsity	6	12	16	8	42	Wesley (Crew) Stanley '16 [1-4] Jake Freeman '16 [1-2] Haley Baker '17 [3-4]
Beaufort High School	Varsity	7	15	20	3	45	Walter Gnann '17 [1, 4] Alex Mazzeo '18 [2-3] Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1, 3-4] Walter Gnann '17 [2]
Good Hope County Day School	Varsity	16	16	7	RDG	46	Ethan Hanley '19 Taylor Hasson '19
Wando High School	Varsity	12	1	19	16	48	Hunter Moore '16 [1-4] Peter Creed '16 [1-2] James Renneker '18 [3-4]
Lutheran South Academy	Varsity	15	6	9	19	49	Ian Beck '15 [1-4] Tristin Stephens '15 [1] Rachel Walston '15 [2-4]
Ft. Walton Beach High School	Varsity	13	DSQ	13	10	57	David Beaudry '15 [1-4] Hannah Brusseau '17 [1-2] Rachael Metruck '18 [3-4]
St. Patrick Catholic High School	Fighting Irish	11	14	17	17	59	Sam Hopkins '15 Grant Kalil '15
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	17	19	11	15	62	Grant Kojaian '16 [1, 3] Wade Lorimer '16 [2, 4] Grant Gustafson '15 [1, 3-4] Thomas Frikker '15 [2]
The Stony Brook School	Bears	18	18	10	18	64	Joshua Martin '17 [1-4] Kadin Via '17 [1] Samuel Gallipeau '15 [2-4]
Osceola Fundamental High School	Varsity	20	17	18	14	69	Chase Burwell '17 [1, 3] Emmet Ward '16 [2, 4] Tucker Mc Elwaney '18 [1, 3] Aislyn Graves '20 [2, 4]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Beaufort High School Varsity	15	17	19	21
Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity	31	33	35	37
Detroit Country Day School Varsity	21	23	25	27
Ft. Walton Beach High School Varsity	27	29	31	33
Good Hope County Day School Varsity	13	15	17	19
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	37	39	1	3
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	5	7	9	11
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	9	11	13	15
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals	29	31	33	35
Lutheran South Academy Varsity	11	13	15	17
Metairie Park Country Day School Varsity	7	9	11	13
Ocean Springs High School Varsity	23	25	27	29
Osceola Fundamental High School Varsity	35	37	39	1
Oxbridge Academy Thunderwolves	17	19	21	23
Southern Regional High School Rams	25	27	29	31
Spring Lake High School Red	3	5	7	9
St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish	19	21	23	25
The Stony Brook School Bears	39	1	3	5
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity	33	35	37	39
Wando High School Varsity	1	3	5	7

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Beaufort High School	Varsity	Walter Gnann '17 [1, 4] Alex Mazzeo '18 [2-3]	Chris Hoogenboom '18 [1, 3-4] Walter Gnann '17 [2]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Varsity	Greg Corsello '16 [1-2] Cooper Siepert '16 [3-4]	Tucker Wanzer '16 [1-2] William Gent '16 [3-4]
Detroit Country Day School	Varsity	Grant Kojaian '16 [1, 3] Wade Lorimer '16 [2, 4]	Grant Gustafson '15 [1, 3-4] Thomas Frikker '15 [2]
Ft. Walton Beach High School	Varsity	David Beaudry '15 [1-4]	Hannah Brusseau '17 [1-2] Rachael Metruck '18 [3-4]
Good Hope County Day School	Varsity	Ethan Hanley '19	Taylor Hasson '19
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	Jack Johansson '17 [1-4]	Benito Guido '16 [1-2] Timothy Kaplan '16 [3-4]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	Max Thompson '15 [1-4]	Jacob Thompson '18 [1-2] William Bowden '16 [3-4]
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	Mark Davies '16	Will Davies '18
Lincoln High School - Portland, OR	Cardinals	Drew Bennett '15 [1-2] Matthew Reynolds '16 [3-4]	Maddy Nicoloff '15 [1-2] Gavin Ross '16 [3-4]
Lutheran South Academy	Varsity	Ian Beck '15 [1-4]	Tristin Stephens '15 [1] Rachel Walston '15 [2-4]
Metairie Park Country Day School	Varsity	Pierce De Boisblanc '15	Kevin Mckee '16
Ocean Springs High School	Varsity	Wesley (Crew) Stanley '16 [1-4]	Jake Freeman '16 [1-2] Haley Baker '17 [3-4]
Osceola Fundamental High School	Varsity	Chase Burwell '17 [1, 3] Emmet Ward '16 [2, 4]	Tucker Mc Elwaney '18 [1, 3] Aislyn Graves '20 [2, 4]
Oxbridge Academy	Thunderwolves	Ian Macdiarmid '17 [1-4]	Shani Scwartz '15 [1, 3-4] Alex Commette '17 [2]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	Emily Haig '17	Jake Ellis '15
Spring Lake High School	Red	Frank Reeg '15 [1-4]	Caleb Boon '17 [1, 3-4] Rachel Rantanen '15 [2]
St. Patrick Catholic High School	Fighting Irish	Sam Hopkins '15	Grant Kalil '15
The Stony Brook School	Bears	Joshua Martin '17 [1-4]	Kadin Via '17 [1] Samuel Gallipeau '15 [2-4]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	Wade Wagner '15 [1-4]	Gloria Kevliciute '17 [1, 3-4] Sabina Van Mel '15 [2]
Wando High School	Varsity	Hunter Moore '16 [1-4]	Peter Creed '16 [1-2] James Renneker '18 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Great Oaks Invitational Gold Round

Division A

From the notes