Massa Cressy Qualifier - Radial

HostThe WaterFront Center
Date09/13/2014
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Poquoson High School	Alexander Hanna '15	29
2	South River High School	Leo Boucher '18	46
3	Norfolk Academy	Gray Kiger '16	64
4	Severn School	Connor Bayless '17	65
5	Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	84
6	Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	106
7	Central Bucks High School - East	Andrew Widmeier '16	121
8	Storm King School	Scott Mckenzie '17	125
9	Key School	Christian Filter '16	132
10	Mattituck High School	Alexandra Talbot '18	144
11	Pelham Memorial High School	Megan Ploch '17	153
12	Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	155
13	Victor Central School	Jessica Lietz '16	156
14	Broadneck High School	Phillip Schofield '17	159
15	Annapolis High School	Porter Kavle '18	162
16	Mercy High School	Ava Esquier '16	183
17	Edmund Burke School	Casey Cabot '17	186
18	Mercy High School	Peter Mcmillan '15	187
19	Summit High School	Kieran Sweeney '15	188
20	Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	190
21	Smithtown	Matthew Priebe '18	195
22	Oyster Bay High School	Rebecca Keller '21	197
23	The Pennington School	Scott Meggitt '17	199
24	Broadneck High School	Jessica Bennett '15	203
25	Mercy High School	John Robert Lawless '15	210
26	Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	213
27	Rye High School	Lindsay Powers '17	234
28	Manhasset HS	Griffen Catallo '18	242
29	Norfolk Academy	Marshall Mccraw '16	244
30	Southern Regional High School	Lauren Beattie '15	246
31	South River High School	Ainsley Paramore '16	258
32	Annapolis High School	Kimberly Leonard '18	276
33	Allendale Columbia	Conner Shumway '16	301
34	Syosset High School	Justin Smith '18	331
35	The Stony Brook School	Joshua Martin '17	351
36	The Stony Brook School	Samuel Gallipeau '15	357
37	Rye High School	Sam Papert '15	380

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
Poquoson High School	Alexander Hanna '15	3	1	1	1	1	1	2	4	8	7	29
South River High School	Leo Boucher '18	2	7	2	10	5	3	1	7	4	5	46
Norfolk Academy	Gray Kiger '16	16	4	9	3	2	5	6	2	16	1	64
Severn School	Connor Bayless '17	8	2	22	2	7	10	4	5	3	2	65
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	7	9	6	6	3	8	8	18	15	4	84
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	1	5	21	8	13	9	19	17	10	3	106
Central Bucks High School - East	Andrew Widmeier '16	15	26	7	4	4	7	5	30	9	14	121
Storm King School	Scott Mckenzie '17	30	3	3	22	17	2	14	10	2	22	125
Key School	Christian Filter '16	9	24	15	5	6	12	3	8	21	29	132
Mattituck High School	Alexandra Talbot '18	12	14	11	20	21	17	7	13	19	10	144
Pelham Memorial High School	Megan Ploch '17	4	20	4	25	12	22	12	22	14	18	153
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	20	8	24	29	22	20	15	3	1	13	155
Victor Central School	Jessica Lietz '16	10	11	18	31	26	25	11	1	7	16	156
Broadneck High School	Phillip Schofield '17	6	27	19	23	11	19	9	6	11	28	159
Annapolis High School	Porter Kavle '18	17	OCS	34	12	8	16	10	16	5	6	162
Mercy High School	Ava Esquier '16	33	31	14	19	18	4	13	21	18	12	183
Edmund Burke School	Casey Cabot '17	5	19	28	14	31	31	16	9	22	11	186
Mercy High School	Peter Mcmillan '15	29	33	27	17	15	13	18	20	6	9	187
Summit High School	Kieran Sweeney '15	21	10	5	13	19	23	33	14	23	27	188
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	23	28	8	9	16	11	31	12	28	24	190
Smithtown	Matthew Priebe '18	34	16	13	7	23	14	23	31	17	17	195
Oyster Bay High School	Rebecca Keller '21	22	12	10	30	20	29	20	11	13	30	197
The Pennington School	Scott Meggitt '17	19	21	25	28	10	24	24	28	12	8	199
Broadneck High School	Jessica Bennett '15	27	6	33	15	9	6	17	33	25	32	203
Mercy High School	John Robert Lawless '15	11	18	30	18	14	32	28	19	20	20	210
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18	13	15	20	32	29	18	22	23	26	15	213
Rye High School	Lindsay Powers '17	14	30	26	16	28	15	29	27	24	25	234
Manhasset HS	Griffen Catallo '18	26	32	12	21	27	21	25	26	33	19	242
Norfolk Academy	Marshall Mccraw '16	24	23	29	11	24	27	21	25	34	26	244
Southern Regional High School	Lauren Beattie '15	31	25	17	27	25	26	30	15	27	23	246
South River High School	Ainsley Paramore '16	35	13	16	24	30	28	26	34	31	21	258
Annapolis High School	Kimberly Leonard '18	18	17	32	26	33	30	34	24	29	33	276
Allendale Columbia	Conner Shumway '16	25	34	23	33	32	34	27	32	30	31	301
Syosset High School	Justin Smith '18	32	35	36	34	34	33	32	29	32	34	331
The Stony Brook School	Joshua Martin '17	28	29	31	35	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	351
The Stony Brook School	Samuel Gallipeau '15	36	22	35	36	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	357
Rye High School	Sam Papert '15	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	380

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 37 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Alexander Hanna '15	Poquoson High School	10/10	2.67	5.17	+2.50	94th → 99th	14.0	<1%	2.9 / 12.9
2	Leo Boucher '18	South River High School Varsity 1	10/10	3.53	4.25	+0.72	99th → 99th	1.7	6%	4.6 / 8.8
3	Gray Kiger '16	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1	10/10	2.22	3.64	+1.42	87th → 99th	6.0	3%	6.4 / 15.2
4	Connor Bayless '17	Severn School	10/10	2.27	3.59	+1.32	88th → 99th	5.3	1%	6.5 / 14.7
5	Jake Vickers '18	Archbishop Spalding	10/10	2.24	3.24	+1.00	87th → 99th	3.3	5%	8.4 / 15.0
6	Sean Crabb '16	Toms River North	10/10	1.57	2.77	+1.20	74th → 96th	4.7	8%	10.6 / 18.5
7	Andrew Widmeier '16	Central Bucks High School - East	10/10	2.33	2.29	−0.04	89th → 88th	0.0	32%	12.1 / 14.5
8	Scott Mckenzie '17	Storm King School	10/10	1.83	2.22	+0.40	81st → 87th	0.6	20%	12.5 / 17.5
9	Christian Filter '16	Key School	10/10	2.46	2.18	−0.29	91st → 86th	0.4	45%	13.2 / 14.3
10	Alexandra Talbot '18	Mattituck High School	10/10	1.29	2.29	+1.00	67th → 88th	3.4	11%	14.4 / 20.1
11	Megan Ploch '17	Pelham Memorial High School	10/10	1.50	2.06	+0.56	73rd → 84th	1.2	27%	15.3 / 19.1
12	Margaret Maccormack '17	Donovan Catholic High School	10/10	1.08	1.94	+0.86	60th → 82nd	2.6	16%	15.5 / 21.3
13	Jessica Lietz '16	Victor Central School	10/10	1.71	1.77	+0.07	78th → 80th	0.0	36%	15.6 / 17.9
14	Phillip Schofield '17	Broadneck High School Bruins 2	10/10	1.53	1.94	+0.40	74th → 82nd	0.6	27%	15.9 / 18.8
15	Porter Kavle '18	Annapolis High School Panthers 2	10/10	2.10	2.04	−0.06	84th → 83rd	0.0	53%	16.2 / 16.0
16	Ava Esquier '16	Mercy High School Monarch Knights 3	10/10	1.77	1.54	−0.23	80th → 74th	0.2	58%	18.3 / 17.4
17	Casey Cabot '17	Edmund Burke School	10/10	1.91	1.39	−0.51	82nd → 69th	1.2	63%	18.6 / 16.9
18	Peter Mcmillan '15	Mercy High School Monarch Knights 1	10/10	1.55	1.50	−0.05	74th → 73rd	0.0	50%	18.7 / 18.8
19	Kieran Sweeney '15	Summit High School Maroon 1	10/10	0.12	1.45	+1.33	25th → 71st	5.5	9%	18.8 / 26.0
20	Michael Ehnot '18	Christian Brothers Academy	10/10	1.20	1.44	+0.24	65th → 71st	0.2	35%	19.0 / 20.7
21	Matthew Priebe '18	Smithtown	10/10	1.86	1.36	−0.50	81st → 68th	1.2	68%	19.5 / 17.0
22	Rebecca Keller '21	Oyster Bay High School	10/10	0.54	1.44	+0.90	40th → 71st	2.8	23%	19.7 / 23.8
23	Scott Meggitt '17	The Pennington School	10/10	1.23^u	1.53	+0.29	65th → 74th	0.3	46%	19.9 / 20.5
24	Jessica Bennett '15	Broadneck High School Bruins 1	10/10	2.00	1.06	−0.94	83rd → 60th	4.4	77%	20.3 / 16.4
25	John Robert Lawless '15	Mercy High School Monarch Knights 2	10/10	1.40	1.29	−0.11	70th → 67th	0.0	60%	21.0 / 19.5
26	Thomas Quinn '18	Summit High School Maroon 2	10/10	0.86	1.32	+0.46	52nd → 67th	0.8	41%	21.3 / 22.4
27	Lindsay Powers '17	Rye High School Varsity 2	10/10	1.52	1.13	−0.39	74th → 61st	0.7	79%	23.4 / 18.9
28	Griffen Catallo '18	Manhasset HS	10/10	0.69	0.97	+0.28	45th → 57th	0.3	55%	24.2 / 23.2
29	Marshall Mccraw '16	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 2	10/10	1.81	0.78	−1.02	80th → 49th	5.0	89%	24.4 / 17.5
30	Lauren Beattie '15	Southern Regional High School	10/10	0.58	1.05	+0.47	41st → 59th	0.9	53%	24.6 / 24.0
31	Ainsley Paramore '16	South River High School Varsity 2	10/10	1.10^u	0.52	−0.58	61st → 39th	1.5	77%	25.8 / 21.2
32	Kimberly Leonard '18	Annapolis High School Panthers 1	10/10	1.58	0.18	−1.40	75th → 27th	9.8	95%	27.6 / 18.7
33	Conner Shumway '16	Allendale Columbia	10/10	0.42	0.13	−0.29	34th → 25th	0.4	85%	30.1 / 24.6
34	Justin Smith '18	Syosset High School	10/10	0.76	-0.85	−1.61	49th → 6th	9.9	98%	33.1 / 22.9
35	Joshua Martin '17	The Stony Brook School Varsity 1	10/10	1.12	0.21	−0.91	61st → 27th	1.7	>99%	35.1 / 21.2
36	Samuel Gallipeau '15	The Stony Brook School Varsity 2	10/10	0.29	-1.02	−1.30	30th → 4th	2.0	>99%	35.7 / 25.3
37	Sam Papert '15	Rye High School Varsity 1	10/10	0.97	—	—	57th → —	0.0	>99%	38.0 / 21.5

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

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Massa Cressy Qualifier - Radial

Division A 37 boats · 10 races

From the notes