NJISA 2014 Fall Fleet Qualifier

HostNJISA @ TRYC
Date10/04/2014
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	40	22	62
2	Toms River South	Indians	34	31	65
3	Toms River North	Mariners	32	46	78
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	48	32	80
5	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	50	34	84
6	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	46	41	87
7	Southern Regional High School	Rams	42	54	96
8	Princeton Day School	Panthers	55	54	109
9	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	35	81	116
10	Malvern Preparatory School	Friars	73	57	130
11	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	73	76	149

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	4	9	1	7	1	7	2	1	32	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Toms River South	Indians	2	2	4	6	3	1	7	9	34	Matt Roleke '15 [1-8] Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4] Joey Cashman '18 [5-8]
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	3	1	2	1	7	8	6	7	35	Robby Gearon '15 Dominique Neubelt '15
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	4	5	10	4	9	4	3	40	Trevor Koerwer '15 [1-8] Kyle Lavin '15 [1-6] Mark Iorio '16 [7-8]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	9	8	6	4	5	4	1	5	42	Emily Haig '17 Sam Westby '16
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	7	5	3	3	2	6	9	11	46	Margot Murray '17 [1-8] Grace Totman '15 [1-2, 7-8] Kk Newsham '15 [3-6]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	10	6	9	5	8	5	3	2	48	Michael Munger '16 [1-8] Francesco Sgroi '16 [1-4] Phil O'Brien '18 [5-8]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	11	3	7	2	9	2	10	6	50	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Princeton Day School	Panthers	8	10	8	8	6	3	8	4	55	Alexander Fasolo '18 Marc Alexandre Harary '17
Malvern Preparatory School	Friars	5	11	10	11	11	10	5	10	73	Kieran Cullen '17 [1-8] Nick Margay '15 [1-2, 7-8] William Mullray '22 [3-4] Brian Haines '15 [5-6]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	6	7	11	9	10	11	11	8	73	Nathan Drezner '16 Sophie Corrodi '16

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	7	6	1	1	1	3	2	1	22	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-8] Jp Burgess '16 [1-2] Chris Magno '17 [3-8]
Toms River South	Indians	5	4	4	7	3	1	3	4	31	Katie Oksen '15 [1-8] Willow Wahlers '17 [1-2, 5-8] Julia Christopher '18 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	2	1	3	3	4	4	8	7	32	Addie Sellig '16 [1-8] Jack Scott '18 [1-2] Teddy Schroeder '16 [3-4, 7-8] Karl Pfeil '18 [5-6]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	1	2	6	6	7	8	1	3	34	John Degeorgis '15 Camryn Kennedy '17
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	3	3	7	8	2	7	9	2	41	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-8] Gal Behiri '15 [1-4] Sarah Elia '16 [5-8]
Toms River North	Mariners	8	8	5	5	5	6	4	5	46	Eddie Harrison '18 Mia Porter '18
Southern Regional High School	Rams	6	7	9	4	8	5	7	8	54	Lauren Beattie '15 [1-3] Michael Scales '16 [4-8] Michael Scales '16 [1-3] Lauren Beattie '15 [4-8]
Princeton Day School	Panthers	9	5	11	2	9	2	5	11	54	Kate Bennett '18 Madison Mundenar '18
Malvern Preparatory School	Friars	4	9	2	11	10	9	6	6	57	Louis Margay '18 [1-8] Brian Haines '15 [1-2, 7-8] Nick Margay '15 [3-4] William Mullray '22 [5-6]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	11	10	8	10	6	10	11	10	76	Harrison Barfield '17 Ashley Dart '17
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	10	11	10	9	11	11	10	9	81	Sara Senkeleski '21 Patrick Mccarthy '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Malvern Preparatory School Friars	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Princeton High School Little Tigers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Princeton Day School Panthers	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	8	8	9	9	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	9	9	11	11	12	12
Summit High School Hilltoppers	9	9	11	11	12	12	1	1
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2
Toms River South Indians	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	1	1	2	2	3	3	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	2	2	3	3	4	4	5	5
Malvern Preparatory School Friars	3	3	4	4	5	5	6	6
Princeton High School Little Tigers	5	5	6	6	7	7	8	8
Princeton Day School Panthers	4	4	5	5	6	6	7	7
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	6	6	7	7	8	8	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	7	7	8	8	9	9	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	9	9	11	11	12	12
Summit High School Hilltoppers	9	9	11	11	12	12	1	1
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	12	12	1	1	2	2
Toms River South Indians	12	12	1	1	2	2	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christian Brothers Academy	Trevor Koerwer '15 [1-8]	Kyle Lavin '15 [1-6] Mark Iorio '16 [7-8]
Colts	Joe Laforgia '17 [1-8]	Jp Burgess '16 [1-2] Chris Magno '17 [3-8]
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Griffins	John Degeorgis '15	Camryn Kennedy '17
Malvern Preparatory School	Kieran Cullen '17 [1-8]	Nick Margay '15 [1-2, 7-8] William Mullray '22 [3-4] Brian Haines '15 [5-6]
Friars	Louis Margay '18 [1-8]	Brian Haines '15 [1-2, 7-8] Nick Margay '15 [3-4] William Mullray '22 [5-6]
Princeton Day School	Alexander Fasolo '18	Marc Alexandre Harary '17
Panthers	Kate Bennett '18	Madison Mundenar '18
Princeton High School	Nathan Drezner '16	Sophie Corrodi '16
Little Tigers	Harrison Barfield '17	Ashley Dart '17
Red Bank Regional High School	Robby Gearon '15	Dominique Neubelt '15
Bucs	Sara Senkeleski '21	Patrick Mccarthy '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16 [1-8]	Francesco Sgroi '16 [1-4] Phil O'Brien '18 [5-8]
Bulldogs	Addie Sellig '16 [1-8]	Jack Scott '18 [1-2] Teddy Schroeder '16 [3-4, 7-8] Karl Pfeil '18 [5-6]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Sam Westby '16
Rams	Lauren Beattie '15 [1-3] Michael Scales '16 [4-8]	Michael Scales '16 [1-3] Lauren Beattie '15 [4-8]
Summit High School	Margot Murray '17 [1-8]	Grace Totman '15 [1-2, 7-8] Kk Newsham '15 [3-6]
Hilltoppers	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-8]	Gal Behiri '15 [1-4] Sarah Elia '16 [5-8]
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Mia Porter '18
Toms River South	Matt Roleke '15 [1-8]	Lauren Zelenak '17 [1-4] Joey Cashman '18 [5-8]
Indians	Katie Oksen '15 [1-8]	Willow Wahlers '17 [1-2, 5-8] Julia Christopher '18 [3-4]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2014 Fall Fleet Qualifier

Division A

Division B

From the notes