NJISA Fleet #3

HostNJISA @ TRYC
Date10/15/2014
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Colts 1	Colts 1	9	12	21
2	Indians 1	Indians 1	27	9	36
3	Colts 2	Colts 2	32	15	47
4	Rams 1	Rams 1	16	32	48
5	Rams 2	Rams 2	42	17	59
6	Bulldogs 2	Bulldogs 2	30	33	63
7	Griffins 2	Griffins 2	26	42	68
8	Shore Regional	Shore Regional	11	58	69
9	Indians 2	Indians 2	36	33	69
10	Bucs	Bucs	15	54	69
11	Colts 3	Colts 3	45	32	77
12	Hermits	Hermits	44	37	81
13	Griffins 1	Griffins 1	53	29	82
14	Bulldogs 1	Bulldogs 1	36	47	83
15	Eagles	Eagles	63	42	105
16	Panthers	Panthers	59	55	114

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT
Colts 1	Colts 1	1	3	1	4	9
Shore Regional	Shore Regional	2	2	4	3	11
Bucs	Bucs	7	5	2	1	15
Rams 1	Rams 1	10	1	3	2	16
Griffins 2	Griffins 2	4	7	10	5	26
Indians 1	Indians 1	3	9	5	10	27
Bulldogs 2	Bulldogs 2	12	4	6	8	30
Colts 2	Colts 2	8	10	7	7	32
Indians 2	Indians 2	5	13	9	9	36
Bulldogs 1	Bulldogs 1	11	6	8	11	36
Rams 2	Rams 2	6	12	11	13	42
Hermits	Hermits	9	8	15	12	44
Colts 3	Colts 3	13	14	12	6	45
Griffins 1	Griffins 1	14	11	14	14	53
Panthers	Panthers	15	16	13	15	59
Eagles	Eagles	16	15	16	16	63

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT
Indians 1	Indians 1	4	2	1	2	9
Colts 1	Colts 1	1	1	7	3	12
Colts 2	Colts 2	2	6	2	5	15
Rams 2	Rams 2	3	4	3	7	17
Griffins 1	Griffins 1	7	OCS	4	1	29
Rams 1	Rams 1	6	3	10	13	32
Colts 3	Colts 3	9	8	6	9	32
Bulldogs 2	Bulldogs 2	8	9	5	11	33
Indians 2	Indians 2	11	7	9	6	33
Hermits	Hermits	5	OCS	11	4	37
Eagles	Eagles	12	14	8	8	42
Griffins 2	Griffins 2	15	5	12	10	42
Bulldogs 1	Bulldogs 1	10	11	14	12	47
Bucs	Bucs	14	12	13	15	54
Panthers	Panthers	13	13	15	14	55
Shore Regional	Shore Regional	16	10	16	16	58

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Eagles Eagles	4	4	4	4
Colts 1 Colts 1	7	7	7	7
Colts 2 Colts 2	8	8	8	8
Colts 3 Colts 3	9	9	9	9
Griffins 1 Griffins 1	2	2	2	2
Griffins 2 Griffins 2	3	3	3	3
Panthers Panthers	12	12	12	12
Bucs Bucs	6	6	6	6
Bulldogs 1 Bulldogs 1	1	1	1	1
Bulldogs 2 Bulldogs 2	16	16	16	16
Shore Regional Shore Regional	5	5	5	5
Rams 1 Rams 1	13	13	13	13
Rams 2 Rams 2	14	14	14	14
Hermits Hermits	15	15	15	15
Indians 1 Indians 1	11	11	11	11
Indians 2 Indians 2	10	10	10	10

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Eagles Eagles	4	4	4	4
Colts 1 Colts 1	7	7	7	7
Colts 2 Colts 2	8	8	8	8
Colts 3 Colts 3	9	9	9	9
Griffins 1 Griffins 1	2	2	2	2
Griffins 2 Griffins 2	3	3	3	3
Panthers Panthers	12	12	12	12
Bucs Bucs	6	6	6	6
Bulldogs 1 Bulldogs 1	1	1	1	1
Bulldogs 2 Bulldogs 2	16	16	16	16
Shore Regional Shore Regional	5	5	5	5
Rams 1 Rams 1	13	13	13	13
Rams 2 Rams 2	14	14	14	14
Hermits Hermits	15	15	15	15
Indians 1 Indians 1	11	11	11	11
Indians 2 Indians 2	10	10	10	10

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Fleet #3

Division A

Division B

From the notes