2014 Norcal 2 Gold

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date10/18/2014
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Redwood	Giants 2	6	6
2	The Urban School	Varsity	24	24
3	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	29	29
4	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	30	30
5	Stevenson School	Varsity	41	41
6	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	52	52
7	Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	54	54
8	Branson School	Bulls	55	55
9	The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	58	58
10	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	67	67
11	Alameda High School	Varsity 2	69	69
12	Woodside High School	Wildcat	72	72
13	The Athenian School	Owls	75	75
14	Miramonte High School	Matadors	82	82
15	Santa Cruz High School	Varsity 1	84	84
16	Santa Cruz High School	Varsity 2	85	85
17	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 3	90	90
18	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	93	93
19	Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	93	93
20	Alameda High School	Varsity 3	95	95
21	Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	98	98
22	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	104	104
23	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	105	105
24	Redwood	Giants 1	110	110
25	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	113	113
26	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	114	114
27	Berkeley High School	Varsity	123	123
28	Aptos High School	Varsity	126	126
29	Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	126	126
30	Delta Middle College	Varsity	127	127
31	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	129	129
32	Marin Academy	Wildcats	140	140
33	Alameda High School	Varsity 1	145	145
34	Mission High School	Varsity	175	175

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Redwood	Giants 2	1	2	1	1	1	6	Will Martens '16 Lucie Welles '16
The Urban School	Varsity	3	6	9	2	4	24	Lawson Willard '15 Cayley Crist '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	2	14	8	3	2	29	Spencer Paulsen '16 Juliana Testa '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	7	7	2	9	5	30	Nolan Van Dine '15 Chloe Bohannon '16
Stevenson School	Varsity	14	10	3	7	7	41	Stuart Henry '17 Lance Zhou '15
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	13	11	11	5	12	52	Michael Pacholski '15 Duncan Robertson '18
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	10	13	12	13	6	54	Nicklas Gardner '15 Eneko Iriso '19
Branson School	Bulls	4	9	6	23	13	55	Jackson Ritter '16 Kamila Harting '18
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	8	22	7	12	9	58	Nicolai Sponholtz '15 Lena Fisher '18
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	17	17	14	16	3	67	Michael Tellini '17 Paige Dunlevy '16
Alameda High School	Varsity 2	5	12	25	10	17	69	Aitor Iriso '17 Ernest Ho '18
Woodside High School	Wildcat	23	3	15	17	14	72	Patrick Wilkinson '16 Sophia Mcdevitt '17
The Athenian School	Owls	6	1	10	27	31	75	Xavier Theo Quinn '16 Jackson Kaplan '17
Miramonte High School	Matadors	OCS	5	30	4	8	82	Kai Otsmaa '17 Sally Wilmot '18
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity 1	20	4	19	15	26	84	Charlotte Lenz '16 Charlie Atkinson '18
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity 2	21	8	20	14	22	85	Nicholas Lenz '15 Kyle Hunt '15
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 3	9	28	4	21	28	90	Emiliano Bache '16 Claire Mohun '15
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	11	20	27	6	29	93	Parker Klebahn '17 Brock Pola '26
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	26	33	5	19	10	93	Victoria Oldham '16 Meghan Oldham '18
Alameda High School	Varsity 3	12	23	23	26	11	95	Drake Hayes '17 Caila Devlin '17
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	18	26	13	22	19	98	Julian Martinez-Prado '15 Talia Rozenbaum '15
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	28	25	16	20	15	104	Amanda Wheeler '25 Luke Probst '26
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	25	19	21	24	16	105	Jack Duncan '15 Makena Barkus '18
Redwood	Giants 1	16	18	26	29	21	110	Ted Bascom '15 Michael Brandon '16
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	31	16	24	18	24	113	Devon Stoeber '17 Kenna Kuhn '16
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	15	21	DSQ	8	DNF	114	Tye Varnes '17 Sophie Ellison '15
Berkeley High School	Varsity	22	29	29	25	18	123	Bear Lundegaard '15 James Guiraud '15
Aptos High School	Varsity	19	30	17	33	27	126	Isabel Andrew '16 Sam Bach '19
Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	30	15	18	28	DNF	126	Mark Power '15 Jacob Kowalski '19
Delta Middle College	Varsity	32	31	28	11	25	127	Marcos Mcgee '17 Justin Flores '17
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	24	32	22	31	20	129	Gwynie Dunlevy '16 Delaney Moslander '17
Marin Academy	Wildcats	29	24	32	32	23	140	William Bewley '15 Parker Kulavic '18
Alameda High School	Varsity 1	27	27	31	30	30	145	Miles Orozco '16 Caroline Kraetzer '19
Mission High School	Varsity	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	175	Hunter (Cazzie) Cutting '16 Sterling Syquia '15

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.190+0.19

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Alameda High School Varsity 1	55	55	55	55	55
Alameda High School Varsity 2	54	54	54	54	54
Alameda High School Varsity 3	53	53	53	53	53
Aptos High School Varsity	110	110	110	110	110
Berkeley High School Varsity	59	59	59	59	59
Bishop O'Dowd High School Varsity	52	52	52	52	52
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	10	10	10	10	10
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	9	9	9	9	9
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 3	8	8	8	8	8
Delta Middle College Varsity	132	132	132	132	132
The International School of San Francisco Varsity	7	7	7	7	7
Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers	5	5	5	5	5
Marin Academy Wildcats	15	15	15	15	15
Miramonte High School Matadors	57	57	57	57	57
Mission High School Varsity	72	72	72	72	72
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA Varsity	42	42	42	42	42
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 1	101	101	101	101	101
Pacific Collegiate School Varsity 2	106	106	106	106	106
Redwood Giants 1	18	18	18	18	18
Redwood Giants 2	123	123	123	123	123
Santa Cruz High School Varsity 1	103	103	103	103	103
Santa Cruz High School Varsity 2	104	104	104	104	104
Junipero Serra High School JSerra	34	34	34	34	34
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	58	58	58	58	58
Stevenson School Varsity	97	97	97	97	97
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	134	134	134	134	134
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	133	133	133	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	77	77	77	77	77
The Athenian School Owls	56	56	56	56	56
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	83	83	83	83	83
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	82	82	82	82	82
Branson School Bulls	124	124	124	124	124
The Urban School Varsity	1	1	1	1	1
Woodside High School Wildcat	33	33	33	33	33

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Alameda High School	Varsity 1	Miles Orozco '16	Caroline Kraetzer '19
Alameda High School	Varsity 2	Aitor Iriso '17	Ernest Ho '18
Alameda High School	Varsity 3	Drake Hayes '17	Caila Devlin '17
Aptos High School	Varsity	Isabel Andrew '16	Sam Bach '19
Berkeley High School	Varsity	Bear Lundegaard '15	James Guiraud '15
Bishop O'Dowd High School	Varsity	Nicklas Gardner '15	Eneko Iriso '19
Branson School	Bulls	Jackson Ritter '16	Kamila Harting '18
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 1	Michael Tellini '17	Paige Dunlevy '16
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 2	Gwynie Dunlevy '16	Delaney Moslander '17
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Cubs 3	Emiliano Bache '16	Claire Mohun '15
Delta Middle College	Varsity	Marcos Mcgee '17	Justin Flores '17
Junipero Serra High School	JSerra	Mark Power '15	Jacob Kowalski '19
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Tigers	Parker Klebahn '17	Brock Pola '26
Marin Academy	Wildcats	William Bewley '15	Parker Kulavic '18
Miramonte High School	Matadors	Kai Otsmaa '17	Sally Wilmot '18
Mission High School	Varsity	Hunter (Cazzie) Cutting '16	Sterling Syquia '15
Notre Dame High School - San Jose, CA	Varsity	Victoria Oldham '16	Meghan Oldham '18
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 1	Michael Pacholski '15	Duncan Robertson '18
Pacific Collegiate School	Varsity 2	Julian Martinez-Prado '15	Talia Rozenbaum '15
Redwood	Giants 1	Ted Bascom '15	Michael Brandon '16
Redwood	Giants 2	Will Martens '16	Lucie Welles '16
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity 1	Charlotte Lenz '16	Charlie Atkinson '18
Santa Cruz High School	Varsity 2	Nicholas Lenz '15	Kyle Hunt '15
St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA	St Joseph Notre Dame	Amanda Wheeler '25	Luke Probst '26
Stevenson School	Varsity	Stuart Henry '17	Lance Zhou '15
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Devon Stoeber '17	Kenna Kuhn '16
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Tye Varnes '17	Sophie Ellison '15
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	Jack Duncan '15	Makena Barkus '18
The Athenian School	Owls	Xavier Theo Quinn '16	Jackson Kaplan '17
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 1	Nolan Van Dine '15	Chloe Bohannon '16
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers 2	Spencer Paulsen '16	Juliana Testa '17
The International School of San Francisco	Varsity	Nicolai Sponholtz '15	Lena Fisher '18
The Urban School	Varsity	Lawson Willard '15	Cayley Crist '17
Woodside High School	Wildcat	Patrick Wilkinson '16	Sophia Mcdevitt '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2014 Norcal 2 Gold

Division A

From the notes