PCISA Singlehanded Champs-Radial

HostSt. Francis Yacht Club
Date09/27/2014
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	The Urban School	Lawson Willard '15	60
2	Point Loma High School	Jeremy Cienfuegos '16	85
3	Coronado Islanders	D'Amy Steward '16	89
4	Newport Harbor High School	Michael Sabourin '16	138
5	Menlo School	Jackson Wagner '15	140
6	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Will Paulsen '15	142
7	Cathedral Catholic High School	Jesse Mcknight '16	144
8	Newport Harbor High School	Will Johnson '15	147
9	Ventura High School	Braedon Baum '17	164
10	Point Loma High School	Katharine Bowman '16	166
11	Newport Harbor High School	Davis Hanscom '15	182
12	Long Beach Wilson High School	Sawyer Gibbs '16	191
13	Corona del Mar High School	Rhodes Garner '16	196
14	Ventura High School	Ian Baldwin '15	201
15	Corona del Mar High School	John Horton '17	211
16	Santa Barbara High School	Lucas Pierce '17	212
17	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Cameron Feves '18	215
18	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Coco Dana '17	228
19	Alameda High School	Aitor Iriso '17	228
20	Newport Harbor High School	Joseph Hou '18	247
21	Lick-Wilmerding High School	Parker Klebahn '17	251
22	Cathedral Catholic High School	Carter Lynn '16	259
23	Long Beach Wilson High School	Ryan Schack '17	261
24	Newport Harbor High School	Patrick Shannon '16	261
25	Sage Hill School	Bobby Briggs '16	273
26	Alameda High School	Drake Hayes '17	275
27	The Bay School of San Francisco	Sumner Strumph '17	276
28	The Bay School of San Francisco	Keith Roehl '15	281
29	San Diego High School	Max Karmel '17	281
30	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Ryder Easterlin '16	285
31	Coronado Islanders	Stefano Monzon '15	301
32	El Cerrito High School	Ula Brucker '23	302
33	Coronado Islanders	Gaige Kruger '18	313
34	Scotts Valley	Michael Levy '15	322
35	Tamalpais High School	Tye Varnes '17	326
36	Cathedral Catholic High School	Alexandra Fayer '15	337
37	Coronado Islanders	Brett Kruger '18	338
38	Tamalpais High School	Hayden Potter '16	347
39	Athenian	Xavier Theo Quinn '16	370
40	St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA	Jayden Potter '16	407
41	Menlo School	Bjorn Antell '17	433
42	Kirby School	Olivia Beers '17	440
43	Santa Cruz High School	Charlotte Lenz '16	440

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT
The Urban School	Lawson Willard '15	DNS	5	1	1	1	4	1	1	1	1	60
Point Loma High School	Jeremy Cienfuegos '16	DNS	1	2	11	2	2	13	2	6	2	85
Coronado Islanders	D'Amy Steward '16	DNS	4	4	3	6	3	6	5	8	6	89
Newport Harbor High School	Michael Sabourin '16	DNS	20	15	4	11	7	12	7	5	13	138
Menlo School	Jackson Wagner '15	DNS	15	16	2	16	9	27	3	3	5	140
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Will Paulsen '15	DNS	14	11	10	10	12	7	8	10	16	142
Cathedral Catholic High School	Jesse Mcknight '16	DNS	7	3	8	20	15	9	10	17	11	144
Newport Harbor High School	Will Johnson '15	DNS	2	6	6	29	10	20	9	13	8	147
Ventura High School	Braedon Baum '17	DNS	19	12	15	7	8	18	6	23	12	164
Point Loma High School	Katharine Bowman '16	DNS	DSQ	8	7	3	5	3	OCS	4	4	166
Newport Harbor High School	Davis Hanscom '15	DNS	12	9	OCS	8	22	15	11	2	15	182
Long Beach Wilson High School	Sawyer Gibbs '16	DNS	DSQ	13	18	18	13	11	12	9	9	191
Corona del Mar High School	Rhodes Garner '16	DNS	10	7	16	32	14	4	18	OCS	7	196
Ventura High School	Ian Baldwin '15	DNS	18	17	9	9	21	10	OCS	15	14	201
Corona del Mar High School	John Horton '17	DNS	23	18	OCS	12	30	5	4	12	19	211
Santa Barbara High School	Lucas Pierce '17	DNS	6	DSQ	19	13	11	14	OCS	7	10	212
Long Beach Polytechnic HS	Cameron Feves '18	DNS	DSQ	DSQ	OCS	4	1	2	13	16	3	215
Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools	Coco Dana '17	DNS	30	19	17	17	25	24	15	20	17	228
Alameda High School	Aitor Iriso '17	DNS	28	20	22	21	17	22	19	14	21	228
Newport Harbor High School	Joseph Hou '18	DNS	3	OCS	5	5	6	8	OCS	DNF	DNF	247
Lick-Wilmerding High School	Parker Klebahn '17	DNS	21	10	14	OCS	28	23	20	29	18	251
Cathedral Catholic High School	Carter Lynn '16	DNS	13	14	21	22	20	16	21	DNF	DNF	259
Long Beach Wilson High School	Ryan Schack '17	DNS	33	33	26	19	19	21	23	18	25	261
Newport Harbor High School	Patrick Shannon '16	DNS	9	DSQ	25	24	27	19	25	24	20	261
Sage Hill School	Bobby Briggs '16	DNS	27	26	27	31	23	26	14	11	DNF	273
Alameda High School	Drake Hayes '17	DNS	35	28	23	25	32	17	22	27	22	275
The Bay School of San Francisco	Sumner Strumph '17	DNS	34	24	20	23	29	28	24	26	24	276
The Bay School of San Francisco	Keith Roehl '15	DNS	8	31	OCS	15	18	33	29	30	29	281
San Diego High School	Max Karmel '17	DNS	11	DSQ	OCS	28	16	29	16	19	30	281
St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	Ryder Easterlin '16	DNS	32	22	28	26	34	25	27	21	26	285
Coronado Islanders	Stefano Monzon '15	DNS	16	23	29	34	24	31	OCS	28	28	301
El Cerrito High School	Ula Brucker '23	DNS	25	34	31	36	31	30	26	22	23	302
Coronado Islanders	Gaige Kruger '18	DNS	17	32	24	35	26	37	32	34	32	313
Scotts Valley	Michael Levy '15	DNS	26	5	13	14	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	322
Tamalpais High School	Tye Varnes '17	DNS	36	27	OCS	27	36	32	28	25	27	326
Cathedral Catholic High School	Alexandra Fayer '15	DNS	24	29	32	DNF	35	34	31	31	33	337
Coronado Islanders	Brett Kruger '18	DNS	22	35	DNF	30	33	36	30	33	31	338
Tamalpais High School	Hayden Potter '16	DNS	31	30	OCS	33	37	35	17	32	DNF	347
Athenian	Xavier Theo Quinn '16	DNS	29	21	12	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	370
St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA	Jayden Potter '16	DNS	DSQ	25	30	OCS	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	DNF	407
Menlo School	Bjorn Antell '17	DNS	37	DSQ	OCS	OCS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	433
Kirby School	Olivia Beers '17	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	440
Santa Cruz High School	Charlotte Lenz '16	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	440

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.
— in the performance column: last in every race sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A 43 boats · 10 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Lawson Willard '15	The Urban School	10/10	2.43	6.25	+3.81	91st → 99th	21.9	3%	6.0 / 15.6
2	Jeremy Cienfuegos '16	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	10/10	2.13	4.14	+2.02	84th → 99th	9.5	6%	8.5 / 17.5
3	D'Amy Steward '16	Coronado Islanders Islanders 4	10/10	0.64	4.12	+3.48	44th → 99th	22.6	<1%	8.9 / 26.5
4	Michael Sabourin '16	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2	10/10	2.46	2.72	+0.26	91st → 95th	0.2	41%	13.8 / 15.8
5	Jackson Wagner '15	Menlo School Varsity 2	10/10	2.11	2.55	+0.44	84th → 92nd	0.6	30%	14.0 / 17.8
6	Will Paulsen '15	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	10/10	1.43	2.74	+1.31	71st → 95th	4.9	14%	14.2 / 21.8
7	Jesse Mcknight '16	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	10/10	1.74	2.65	+0.91	79th → 94th	2.6	20%	14.4 / 19.8
8	Will Johnson '15	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 3	10/10	2.51	2.40	−0.11	92nd → 91st	0.0	50%	14.7 / 15.3
9	Braedon Baum '17	Ventura High School Varsity 1	10/10	1.08	2.27	+1.19	60th → 88th	4.2	12%	16.4 / 24.1
10	Katharine Bowman '16	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	10/10	2.62	4.12	+1.50	94th → 99th	4.5	65%	16.6 / 14.7
11	Davis Hanscom '15	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1	10/10	1.21	2.54	+1.34	65th → 92nd	4.5	24%	18.2 / 23.1
12	Sawyer Gibbs '16	Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins 2	10/10	1.94	2.41	+0.47	82nd → 91st	0.7	55%	19.1 / 18.6
13	Rhodes Garner '16	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	10/10	2.11	2.00	−0.11	84th → 83rd	0.0	63%	19.6 / 17.9
14	Ian Baldwin '15	Ventura High School Varsity 2	10/10	1.37	2.24	+0.88	68th → 87th	2.2	40%	20.1 / 21.9
15	John Horton '17	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	10/10	1.90	1.82	−0.07	82nd → 80th	0.0	62%	21.1 / 19.2
16	Lucas Pierce '17	Santa Barbara High School	10/10	2.41	2.60	+0.19	91st → 93rd	0.1	86%	21.2 / 15.9
17	Cameron Feves '18	Long Beach Polytechnic HS	10/10	1.72	3.35	+1.63	78th → 99th	4.6	63%	21.5 / 19.8
18	Aitor Iriso '17	Alameda High School Varsity 1	10/10	1.56	1.43	−0.13	74th → 71st	0.1	63%	22.8 / 20.7
18	Coco Dana '17	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	10/10	0.88	1.44	+0.57	53rd → 71st	1.1	35%	22.8 / 25.3
20	Joseph Hou '18	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 4	10/10	2.77	4.03	+1.25	96th → 99th	2.4	98%	24.7 / 13.7
21	Parker Klebahn '17	Lick-Wilmerding High School	10/10	0.92	1.34	+0.42	55th → 67th	0.5	51%	25.1 / 24.9
22	Carter Lynn '16	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 3	10/10	1.26	1.74	+0.49	66th → 79th	0.6	69%	25.9 / 22.6
23	Patrick Shannon '16	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 5	10/10	1.95	1.15	−0.80	82nd → 63rd	2.7	88%	26.1 / 18.4
23	Ryan Schack '17	Long Beach Wilson High School Bruins 1	10/10	1.14	0.78	−0.35	62nd → 49th	0.5	66%	26.1 / 23.4
25	Bobby Briggs '16	Sage Hill School	10/10	1.26	1.05	−0.22	66th → 59th	0.2	75%	27.3 / 22.8
26	Drake Hayes '17	Alameda High School Varsity 2	10/10	1.31	0.66	−0.65	67th → 44th	1.9	77%	27.5 / 22.6
27	Sumner Strumph '17	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1	10/10	0.70	0.80	+0.10	45th → 50th	0.0	58%	27.6 / 26.1
28	Keith Roehl '15	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2	10/10	1.05	0.60	−0.45	59th → 42nd	0.8	72%	28.1 / 24.0
28	Max Karmel '17	San Diego High School	10/10	1.28^u	1.14	−0.15	67th → 62nd	0.1	80%	28.1 / 22.6
30	Ryder Easterlin '16	St. Ignatius College Prep - San Francisco	10/10	0.52	0.62	+0.11	39th → 43rd	0.0	54%	28.5 / 27.6
31	Stefano Monzon '15	Coronado Islanders Islanders 1	10/10	0.89	0.55	−0.34	54th → 40th	0.4	77%	30.1 / 25.1
32	Ula Brucker '23	El Cerrito High School	10/10	0.33	0.06	−0.27	31st → 24th	0.3	61%	30.2 / 28.1
33	Gaige Kruger '18	Coronado Islanders Islanders 3	10/10	1.05^u	-0.71	−1.76	59th → 8th	11.9	87%	31.3 / 24.0
34	Michael Levy '15	Scotts Valley	10/10	1.49	2.05	+0.57	72nd → 83rd	0.5	98%	32.2 / 21.4
35	Tye Varnes '17	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	10/10	0.66	0.15	−0.51	45th → 26th	1.0	83%	32.6 / 26.5
36	Alexandra Fayer '15	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	10/10	0.59	-0.55	−1.14	42nd → 10th	4.4	85%	33.7 / 27.0
37	Brett Kruger '18	Coronado Islanders Islanders 2	10/10	1.06^u	-0.35	−1.41	60th → 14th	8.2	93%	33.8 / 24.1
38	Hayden Potter '16	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	10/10	1.22	-0.20	−1.42	65th → 16th	7.3	97%	34.7 / 23.0
39	Xavier Theo Quinn '16	Athenian	10/10	1.20	1.29	+0.10	65th → 67th	0.0	99%	37.0 / 23.3
40	Jayden Potter '16	St. Lawrence Academy - Santa Clara, CA	10/10	0.72	0.16	−0.56	46th → 26th	0.3	>99%	40.7 / 26.2
41	Bjorn Antell '17	Menlo School Varsity 1	10/10	0.07	—	—	24th → —	2.6	>99%	43.3 / 29.8
42	Charlotte Lenz '16	Santa Cruz High School	10/10	1.19	—	—	65th → —	0.0	>99%	44.0 / 22.9
42	Olivia Beers '17	Kirby School	10/10	0.96	—	—	57th → —	0.0	>99%	44.0 / 24.7

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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PCISA Singlehanded Champs-Radial

Division A 43 boats · 10 races

From the notes