MASSA "2016" Cressy Qualifier - Radial

HostSCYC
Date09/19/2015
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatRadial
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	21
2	South River High School	Leo Boucher '18	25
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	66
4	Norfolk Academy	Gray Kiger '16	75
5	The Pennington School	Scott Meggitt '17	95
6	Rye Country Day School	Cooper Yeager '17	110
7	Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	123
8	Pelham Memorial High School	Megan Ploch '17	124
9	South River High School	Tyler Mowry '18	148
10	St. Albans School	Ryan Hennessey '17	151
11	Regis High School	John Patrick Panarella '18	166
12	South River High School	Ethan Schrand '19	166
13	Mattituck High School	Alexandra Talbot '18	170
14	Victor Central School	Jessica Lietz '16	171
15	Mercy High School	Ava Esquier '16	175
16	Rye High School	Lindsay Powers '17	182
17	Rye High School	Sean Walsh '16	199
18	Severn School	Caroline Bayless '19	199
19	Delbarton School	James O'Gwen '23	202
20	Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	217
21	Annapolis High School	Nicholas Salvesen '18	221
22	Irondequoit High School	Rhys Daunton '17	247
23	Summit High School	William Lusty '19	265
24	Mercy High School	Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17	285
25	Sts. Peter & Paul	Coleman Walker '17	302
26	St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '18	309
27	Allendale Columbia	Conner Shumway '16	321
28	Hilton Central	Matthew Lyons '19	345
29	Honeoye Falls-Lima High School	Aidan Goldfarb '18	372
30	Nichols School	Harris Padegs '18	372

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
Archbishop Spalding	Jake Vickers '18	1	1	2	2	1	2	1	2	2	2	3	2	21
South River High School	Leo Boucher '18	4	2	8	1	2	1	2	1	1	1	1	1	25
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	2	24	3	7	5	3	4	4	3	4	2	5	66
Norfolk Academy	Gray Kiger '16	8	18	1	6	8	4	7	3	5	5	6	4	75
The Pennington School	Scott Meggitt '17	6	22	6	16	12	6	6	7	4	3	4	3	95
Rye Country Day School	Cooper Yeager '17	12	14	12	3	10	14	5	6	6	8	10	10	110
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	22	6	4	13	3	5	9	14	12	16	11	8	123
Pelham Memorial High School	Megan Ploch '17	11	20	15	12	7	16	3	5	9	10	9	7	124
South River High School	Tyler Mowry '18	15	5	20	14	27	11	12	17	7	6	8	6	148
St. Albans School	Ryan Hennessey '17	9	9	14	5	16	9	20	12	17	12	13	15	151
Regis High School	John Patrick Panarella '18	14	12	11	24	15	17	18	11	11	7	14	12	166
South River High School	Ethan Schrand '19	20	27	10	11	9	22	16	15	13	9	5	9	166
Mattituck High School	Alexandra Talbot '18	17	19	21	4	18	7	13	10	15	15	18	13	170
Victor Central School	Jessica Lietz '16	21	11	22	10	11	19	15	21	10	13	7	11	171
Mercy High School	Ava Esquier '16	25	8	16	9	14	20	21	9	8	11	20	14	175
Rye High School	Lindsay Powers '17	5	17	23	19	4	18	17	13	14	14	19	19	182
Rye High School	Sean Walsh '16	16	25	5	17	21	21	11	16	16	17	17	17	199
Severn School	Caroline Bayless '19	28	3	19	15	13	12	14	26	19	20	12	18	199
Delbarton School	James O'Gwen '23	19	10	7	18	22	15	19	18	20	18	16	20	202
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	3	13	24	21	6	8	10	8	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	217
Annapolis High School	Nicholas Salvesen '18	10	21	18	25	20	10	27	22	18	19	15	16	221
Irondequoit High School	Rhys Daunton '17	26	16	9	8	23	13	8	20	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	247
Summit High School	William Lusty '19	7	4	13	27	24	25	22	19	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	265
Mercy High School	Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17	13	7	27	20	25	23	23	23	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	285
Sts. Peter & Paul	Coleman Walker '17	23	23	17	23	17	26	24	25	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	302
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '18	18	15	25	28	19	27	26	27	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	309
Allendale Columbia	Conner Shumway '16	24	26	26	22	26	24	25	24	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	321
Hilton Central	Matthew Lyons '19	27	28	28	26	28	28	28	28	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	345
Honeoye Falls-Lima High School	Aidan Goldfarb '18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	372
Nichols School	Harris Padegs '18	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	372

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 495 ISSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 30 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Jake Vickers '18	Archbishop Spalding	12/12	2.27	6.06	+3.79	88th → 99th	28.6	<1%	1.8 / 12.5
2	Leo Boucher '18	South River High School Seahawks 1	12/12	3.53	5.52	+1.99	99th → 99th	10.2	<1%	2.1 / 7.5
3	Michael Ehnot '18	Christian Brothers Academy	12/12	2.19	3.30	+1.11	86th → 99th	4.4	0%	5.5 / 12.8
4	Gray Kiger '16	Norfolk Academy	12/12	2.42	3.31	+0.89	91st → 99th	3.1	8%	6.2 / 11.8
5	Scott Meggitt '17	The Pennington School	12/12	1.23^u	2.90	+1.66	65th → 97th	9.5	2%	7.9 / 17.1
6	Cooper Yeager '17	Rye Country Day School	12/12	1.77	2.71	+0.93	80th → 95th	3.5	11%	9.2 / 14.8
7	Margaret Maccormack '17	Donovan Catholic High School	12/12	1.16	2.32	+1.16	63rd → 88th	5.2	6%	10.2 / 17.4
8	Megan Ploch '17	Pelham Memorial High School	12/12	1.50	2.45	+0.95	73rd → 91st	3.7	11%	10.3 / 15.9
9	Tyler Mowry '18	South River High School Seahawks 2	12/12	2.39	1.82	−0.57	90th → 80th	1.7	55%	12.3 / 12.1
10	Ryan Hennessey '17	St. Albans School	12/12	2.05	1.94	−0.11	83rd → 82nd	0.1	44%	12.6 / 13.6
11	Ethan Schrand '19	South River High School Seahawks 3	12/12	1.53	1.66	+0.12	74th → 77th	0.1	33%	13.8 / 15.7
11	John Patrick Panarella '18	Regis High School	12/12	1.69	1.83	+0.14	77th → 81st	0.1	37%	13.8 / 15.1
13	Alexandra Talbot '18	Mattituck High School	12/12	1.29	1.72	+0.43	67th → 78th	0.8	23%	14.2 / 16.9
14	Jessica Lietz '16	Victor Central School	12/12	1.71	1.78	+0.07	78th → 80th	0.0	44%	14.2 / 15.1
15	Ava Esquier '16	Mercy High School Varsity 1	12/12	1.79	1.41	−0.39	80th → 70th	0.7	50%	14.6 / 14.7
16	Lindsay Powers '17	Rye High School Garnets 1	12/12	1.52	1.41	−0.11	74th → 70th	0.1	45%	15.2 / 15.8
17	Caroline Bayless '19	Severn School	12/12	2.15	0.69	−1.46	85th → 45th	11.8	79%	16.6 / 13.0
17	Sean Walsh '16	Rye High School Garnets 2	12/12	1.77	1.29	−0.48	79th → 67th	1.3	66%	16.6 / 14.9
19	James O'Gwen '23	Delbarton School	12/12	1.62	0.99	−0.63	75th → 57th	1.9	63%	16.8 / 15.3
20	Cameron Giblin '19	Ranney School	12/12	1.99	2.06	+0.07	83rd → 84th	0.0	89%	18.1 / 13.8
21	Nicholas Salvesen '18	Annapolis High School	12/12	1.57	0.93	−0.64	74th → 56th	2.3	74%	18.4 / 15.6
22	Rhys Daunton '17	Irondequoit High School	12/12	1.13^u	1.59	+0.46	62nd → 75th	0.6	74%	20.6 / 17.5
23	William Lusty '19	Summit High School	12/12	0.97	1.02	+0.05	57th → 58th	0.0	80%	22.1 / 18.2
24	Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17	Mercy High School Varsity 2	12/12	1.02	0.83	−0.18	58th → 51st	0.1	91%	23.8 / 18.0
25	Coleman Walker '17	Sts. Peter & Paul	12/12	0.74	0.76	+0.02	47th → 48th	0.0	93%	25.2 / 19.1
26	Michael Pinto '18	St. Augustine Prep School	12/12	1.08^u	0.13	−0.95	60th → 25th	3.2	98%	25.8 / 17.7
27	Conner Shumway '16	Allendale Columbia	12/12	0.42	0.47	+0.05	34th → 36th	0.0	96%	26.8 / 20.3
28	Matthew Lyons '19	Hilton Central	12/12	0.97^u	-1.97	−2.94	57th → 1st	17.8	>99%	28.8 / 18.1
29	Aidan Goldfarb '18	Honeoye Falls-Lima High School	12/12	1.11^u	—	—	61st → —	0.0	>99%	31.0 / 17.4
29	Harris Padegs '18	Nichols School	12/12	1.24	—	—	65th → —	0.0	>99%	31.0 / 17.1

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

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MASSA "2016" Cressy Qualifier - Radial

Division A 30 boats · 12 races

From the notes