NJISA 2015 Fall Fleet Championship

HostSSYC
Date10/10/2015
TypeLeague Championship
BoatC420/CFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	15	17	32
2	Toms River North	Mariners	15	17	32
3	Southern Regional High School	Rams	18	23	41
4	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	18	25	43
5	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	32	15	47
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	28	29	57
7	Chatham High School	Cougars	33	35	68
8	Indians	Indians	36	37	73
9	Princeton High School	Little Tigers	55	33	88
10	Blue Devils	Blue Devils	40	53	93
11	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	57	54	111
12	Dragons	Dragons	49	65	114
13	Panthers	Panthers	62	52	114

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	1	4	3	2	5	15	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Toms River North	Mariners	2	3	4	5	1	15	Sean Crabb '16 James Koerner '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	1	1	3	8	18	Emily Haig '17 [1-5] Michael Scales '16 [1-4] Rachel Lange '17 [5]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	7	2	5	1	3	18	Michael Munger '16 [1-5] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-2] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [3-5]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	4	5	8	4	7	28	Regina Vahey '18 [1-3, 5] Erin Mcgarry '17 [4] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-3, 5]
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	3	13	6	8	2	32	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5] Danny Kane '16 [1-2] Juliana Rustum '16 [3-5]
Chatham High School	Cougars	6	7	2	9	9	33	Juliana Marino '16 Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Indians	Indians	9	6	9	6	6	36
Blue Devils	Blue Devils	8	8	7	7	10	40
Dragons	Dragons	10	11	13	11	4	49
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	DNF	9	11	10	11	55	Harrison Barfield '17 Sophie Corrodi '16
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	11	12	10	12	12	57	Andrew Knowlton '16 Patrick Mccarthy '16
Panthers	Panthers	DNF	10	12	13	13	62

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	4	1	5	4	1	15	Margot Murray '17 [1-5] Mark Freidin '16 [1-2] Sarah Elia '16 [3-5]
Toms River North	Mariners	2	5	2	2	6	17	Eddie Harrison '18 [1-5] Mia Porter '18 [1-2] Mark Keorner '19 [3-5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	5	3	1	1	7	17	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Southern Regional High School	Rams	7	8	3	3	2	23	Tom Green '19 [1-5] Sam Westby '16 [1-4] Emily Micciche '17 [5]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	1	6	9	6	3	25	Addie Sellig '16 [1-5] Jack Scott '18 [1-2] Teddy Schroeder '16 [3-5]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	6	2	8	8	5	29	Cole Banias '17 [1-3, 5] Margaret Maccormack '17 [4] Camryn Kennedy '17 [1-3, 5] Catherine Cooke '17 [4]
Princeton High School	Little Tigers	3	7	7	7	9	33	Nathan Drezner '16 Ashley Dart '17
Chatham High School	Cougars	8	4	4	11	8	35	Marisa Marino '17 [1-5] Grace Evans '17 [1-2, 5] Jack Gallagher '19 [3-4]
Indians	Indians	9	9	10	5	4	37
Panthers	Panthers	10	10	12	10	10	52
Blue Devils	Blue Devils	11	12	6	12	12	53
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	12	11	11	9	11	54	Sara Senkeleski '21 Murray Elinson '19
Dragons	Dragons	13	13	13	13	13	65

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Chatham High School Cougars	1	1	3	3	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	2	2	4	4	6
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	3	3	5	5	7
Dragons Dragons	4	4	6	6	8
Panthers Panthers	5	5	7	7	9
Princeton High School Little Tigers	6	6	8	8	10
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	7	7	9	9	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	8	8	10	10	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	11	11	13
Summit High School Hilltoppers	10	10	12	12	1
Toms River North Mariners	11	11	13	13	2
Indians Indians	12	12	1	1	3
Blue Devils Blue Devils	13	13	2	2	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	4	4	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts	3	3	5	5	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	4	4	6	6	8
Dragons Dragons	5	5	7	7	9
Panthers Panthers	6	6	8	8	10
Princeton High School Little Tigers	7	7	9	9	11
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	8	8	10	10	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	9	9	11	11	13
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	12	12	1
Summit High School Hilltoppers	11	11	13	13	2
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	1	1	3
Indians Indians	13	13	2	2	4
Blue Devils Blue Devils	1	1	3	3	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Chatham High School	Juliana Marino '16	Stephanie Gilsenan '17
Cougars	Marisa Marino '17 [1-5]	Grace Evans '17 [1-2, 5] Jack Gallagher '19 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Regina Vahey '18 [1-3, 5] Erin Mcgarry '17 [4]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1-3, 5]
Griffins	Cole Banias '17 [1-3, 5] Margaret Maccormack '17 [4]	Camryn Kennedy '17 [1-3, 5] Catherine Cooke '17 [4]
Princeton High School	Harrison Barfield '17	Sophie Corrodi '16
Little Tigers	Nathan Drezner '16	Ashley Dart '17
Red Bank Regional High School	Andrew Knowlton '16	Patrick Mccarthy '16
Bucs	Sara Senkeleski '21	Murray Elinson '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16 [1-5]	Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-2] Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 [3-5]
Bulldogs	Addie Sellig '16 [1-5]	Jack Scott '18 [1-2] Teddy Schroeder '16 [3-5]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17 [1-5]	Michael Scales '16 [1-4] Rachel Lange '17 [5]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-5]	Sam Westby '16 [1-4] Emily Micciche '17 [5]
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5]	Danny Kane '16 [1-2] Juliana Rustum '16 [3-5]
Hilltoppers	Margot Murray '17 [1-5]	Mark Freidin '16 [1-2] Sarah Elia '16 [3-5]
Toms River North	Sean Crabb '16	James Koerner '17
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18 [1-5]	Mia Porter '18 [1-2] Mark Keorner '19 [3-5]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2015 Fall Fleet Championship

Division A

Division B

From the notes