NJISA Fall Fleet Series 1

HostTRYC
Date09/16/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	8	5	13
2	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	14	11	25
3	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	18	10	28
4	Hermits	Hermits	19	14	33
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	21	35
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	13	22	35
7	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	21	28	49
8	Toms River North	Mariners	17	33	50
9	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	26	28	54
10	Toms River South	Indians 1	39	16	55
11	Chatham High School	Cougars	25	31	56
12	Toms River South	Indians 2	31	26	57
13	Central Regional High School	Eagles	30	38	68
14	Bucs	Bucs	40	32	72

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	1	4	8	Emily Haig '17 Rachel Lange '17
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	9	3	1	13	Margaret Maccormack '17 [1-3] Camryn Kennedy '17 [1, 3] Catherine Cooke '17 [2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	2	10	14	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	5	6	3	14	Jp Burgess '16 Jonathan Wilhelm '17
Toms River North	Mariners	10	5	2	17	Eddie Harrison '18 Eddie Harrison '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	6	4	8	18	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-3] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1, 3] Nicole Aleta '17 [2]
Hermits	Hermits	4	9	6	19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	1	8	12	21	Michael Munger '16 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Chatham High School	Cougars	7	7	11	25	Juliana Marino '16 [1-3] Marisa Marino '17 [1-2] Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [3]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	8	11	7	26	Marcello Sgroi '16 Patrick Modin '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	14	5	30	Patience Harrington '17 [1-3] Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [1-2] Mcaleavey Gwen '17 [3]
Toms River South	Indians 2	12	10	9	31	Julia Christopher '18 Leo Krajewski '19
Toms River South	Indians 1	14	12	13	39	Joey Cashman '18 Tabitha Paul '19
Bucs	Bucs	13	13	14	40

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Southern Regional High School	Rams	1	2	2	5	Tom Green '19 [1-3] Michael Scales '16 [1-2] Burke Flynn '18 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	2	7	1	10	Regina Vahey '18 [1, 3] John Simon '18 [2] Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1, 3] Vincent Priolo '19 [2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	3	1	7	11	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Hermits	Hermits	5	5	4	14
Toms River South	Indians 1	4	3	9	16	Willow Wahlers '17 Alexa Carles '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	11	4	6	21	Garret Boyan '17 [1-3] Greg Degersdorff '16 [1-2] Robert Maes '17 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	9	8	5	22	John Simon '18 [1, 3] Regina Vahey '18 [2] Vincent Priolo '19 [1, 3] Camryn Kennedy '17 [2]
Toms River South	Indians 2	7	9	10	26	Lauren Zelenak '17 Paige Zelenak '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	6	11	11	28	Teddy Schroeder '16 Francesco Sgroi '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	8	6	14	28	Jack Scott '18 Kate Swikart '19
Chatham High School	Cougars	14	14	3	31	Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1] Jack Gallagher '19 [2] Marisa Marino '17 [3] Jack Gallagher '19 [1, 3] Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [2]
Bucs	Bucs	10	10	12	32
Toms River North	Mariners	13	12	8	33	Eddie Harrison '18 Eddie Harrison '18
Central Regional High School	Eagles	12	13	13	38	John Macmoyle '17 [1-3] Tara O'Donnell '17 [1-2] Mcaleavey Michael '19 [3]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	6	6	6
Bucs Bucs	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10
Hermits Hermits	11	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	12
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13	13
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14	14

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	6	6	6
Bucs Bucs	7	7	7
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	8
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	10
Hermits Hermits	11	11	11
Toms River North Mariners	12	12	12
Toms River South Indians 1	13	13	13
Toms River South Indians 2	14	14	14

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Patience Harrington '17 [1-3]	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [1-2] Mcaleavey Gwen '17 [3]
Eagles	John Macmoyle '17 [1-3]	Tara O'Donnell '17 [1-2] Mcaleavey Michael '19 [3]
Chatham High School	Juliana Marino '16 [1-3]	Marisa Marino '17 [1-2] Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [3]
Cougars	Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [1] Jack Gallagher '19 [2] Marisa Marino '17 [3]	Jack Gallagher '19 [1, 3] Patrick Seitz-Sitek '19 [2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Jp Burgess '16	Jonathan Wilhelm '17
Colts 2	Garret Boyan '17 [1-3]	Greg Degersdorff '16 [1-2] Robert Maes '17 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17 [1-3]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1, 3] Nicole Aleta '17 [2]
Griffins 1	Regina Vahey '18 [1, 3] John Simon '18 [2]	Maureen Mcgarry '17 [1, 3] Vincent Priolo '19 [2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17 [1-3]	Camryn Kennedy '17 [1, 3] Catherine Cooke '17 [2]
Griffins 2	John Simon '18 [1, 3] Regina Vahey '18 [2]	Vincent Priolo '19 [1, 3] Camryn Kennedy '17 [2]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Bulldogs 1	Jack Scott '18	Kate Swikart '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Marcello Sgroi '16	Patrick Modin '19
Bulldogs 2	Teddy Schroeder '16	Francesco Sgroi '16
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Rachel Lange '17
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-3]	Michael Scales '16 [1-2] Burke Flynn '18 [3]
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Eddie Harrison '18
Mariners	Eddie Harrison '18	Eddie Harrison '18
Toms River South	Joey Cashman '18	Tabitha Paul '19
Indians 1	Willow Wahlers '17	Alexa Carles '19
Toms River South	Julia Christopher '18	Leo Krajewski '19
Indians 2	Lauren Zelenak '17	Paige Zelenak '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Fall Fleet Series 1

Division A

Division B

From the notes