NJISA Fleet Series No. 3

HostTRYC
Date09/30/2015
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers	13	4	17
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	15	8	23
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	14	10	24
4	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	21	13	34
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	6	34	40
6	Hermits	Hermits	20	22	42
7	Mariners	Mariners	16	27	43
8	Indians 1	Indians 1	31	14	45
9	Caseys	Caseys	24	26	50
10	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	15	36	51
11	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	30	30	60
12	Central Regional High School	Eagles	37	24	61
13	Indians 2	Indians 2	33	30	63
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	36	40	76
15	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	44	42	86
16	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	51	51	102

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	3	1	2	6	Jp Burgess '16 [1-3] Jonathan Wilhelm '17 [1-2] Greg Degersdorff '16 [3]
Ranney School	Panthers	2	5	6	13	Cameron Giblin '19 Ava Atanacio '18
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	3	7	14	Joe Laforgia '17 Chris Magno '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	5	2	8	15	Michael Munger '16 [1-3] Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-2] Kaitlynne Wilhelm '19 [3]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	7	4	4	15	Emily Haig '17 Rachel Lange '17
Mariners	Mariners	9	6	1	16
Hermits	Hermits	1	10	9	20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	11	7	3	21	Erin Mcgarry '17 Maureen Mcgarry '17
Caseys	Caseys	6	BKD	10	24
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	14	11	5	30	Michael Scales '16 Emily Micciche '17
Indians 1	Indians 1	8	12	11	31
Indians 2	Indians 2	13	8	12	33
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	12	9	15	36	Margaret Maccormack '17 Catherine Cooke '17
Central Regional High School	Eagles	10	13	14	37	Patience Harrington '17 [1-2] River Dixon '18 [3] Maxwell Bonanno '19 [1-2] Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [3]
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	DNS	14	13	44	Andrew Knowlton '16 Patrick Mccarthy '16
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	51

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	2	1	1	4	Luke Arnone '19 Mari Patient '17
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	3	3	2	8	Tom Green '19 Sam Westby '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	6	3	10	Michael Ehnot '18 Mark Iorio '16
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	4	4	5	13	Cole Banias '17 Camryn Kennedy '17
Indians 1	Indians 1	6	2	6	14
Hermits	Hermits	5	10	7	22
Central Regional High School	Eagles	8	5	11	24	John Macmoyle '17 Tara O'Donnell '17
Caseys	Caseys	10	7	9	26
Mariners	Mariners	11	8	8	27
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	9	11	10	30	Paul Reiff '17 [1-2] Rachel Lange '17 [3] Burke Flynn '18 [1-3]
Indians 2	Indians 2	12	14	4	30
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	7	12	15	34	Garret Boyan '17 Robert Maes '17
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	14	9	13	36	Marcello Sgroi '16 [1-2] Francesco Sgroi '16 [3] Francesco Sgroi '16 [1-2] Patrick Modin '19 [3]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	13	13	14	40	Vincent Priolo '19 Kelly Delaney '18
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	15	15	12	42	Sara Senkeleski '21 Michael Meehan '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	DNS	DNS	DNS	51

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (7 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A
Central Regional High School Eagles	5	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	6	6	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	7	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	8	8	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	9	9	9
Ranney School Panthers	10	10	10
Caseys Caseys	11	11	11
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	12	12	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	13	13	13
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	14	14	14
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	15	15	15
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	16	16	16
Hermits Hermits	17	17	17
Mariners Mariners	18	18	18
Indians 1 Indians 1	1	1	1
Indians 2 Indians 2	2	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B
Central Regional High School Eagles	5	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	6	6	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	7	7	7
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	8	8	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	9	9	9
Ranney School Panthers	10	10	10
Caseys Caseys	11	11	11
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	12	12	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	13	13	13
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	14	14	14
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	15	15	15
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	16	16	16
Hermits Hermits	17	17	17
Mariners Mariners	18	18	18
Indians 1 Indians 1	1	1	1
Indians 2 Indians 2	2	2	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Patience Harrington '17 [1-2] River Dixon '18 [3]	Maxwell Bonanno '19 [1-2] Reilly Fitzgerald '18 [3]
Eagles	John Macmoyle '17	Tara O'Donnell '17
Christian Brothers Academy	Joe Laforgia '17	Chris Magno '17
Colts 1	Michael Ehnot '18	Mark Iorio '16
Christian Brothers Academy	Jp Burgess '16 [1-3]	Jonathan Wilhelm '17 [1-2] Greg Degersdorff '16 [3]
Colts 2	Garret Boyan '17	Robert Maes '17
Donovan Catholic High School	Margaret Maccormack '17	Catherine Cooke '17
Griffins 1	Vincent Priolo '19	Kelly Delaney '18
Donovan Catholic High School	Erin Mcgarry '17	Maureen Mcgarry '17
Griffins 2	Cole Banias '17	Camryn Kennedy '17
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	Ava Atanacio '18
Panthers	Luke Arnone '19	Mari Patient '17
Red Bank Regional High School	Andrew Knowlton '16	Patrick Mccarthy '16
Bucs	Sara Senkeleski '21	Michael Meehan '22
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michael Munger '16 [1-3]	Teddy Schroeder '16 [1-2] Kaitlynne Wilhelm '19 [3]
Bulldogs 1	Marcello Sgroi '16 [1-2] Francesco Sgroi '16 [3]	Francesco Sgroi '16 [1-2] Patrick Modin '19 [3]
Southern Regional High School	Emily Haig '17	Rachel Lange '17
Rams 1	Tom Green '19	Sam Westby '16
Southern Regional High School	Michael Scales '16	Emily Micciche '17
Rams 2	Paul Reiff '17 [1-2] Rachel Lange '17 [3]	Burke Flynn '18 [1-3]

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Fleet Series No. 3

Division A

Division B

From the notes