SAISA Open - Lake Crabtreee

HostLake Crabtree
Date11/14/2015
TypePromotional
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	13	20	33
2	Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw	36	30	66
3	Varsity	Varsity	32	40	72
4	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	48	31	79
5	Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	32	58	90
6	Varsity	Varsity	48	46	94
7	Hurricanes	Hurricanes	34	70	104
8	Varsity	Varsity	46	63	109
9	Varsity	Varsity	74	35	109
10	Bishop England High School	Bishops	73	50	123

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	6	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	13	G. Alex White '16 David Robertson '17
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	2	3	2	6	3	RDG	8	4	32	William Bowden '16 Courtney Weidinger '17
Varsity	Varsity	4	7	6	3	4	3	3	2	32
Hurricanes	Hurricanes	1	2	7	5	7	2	4	6	34
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw	5	4	OCS	2	2	4	5	3	36	Noah Benton '18 Ella Smith '20
Varsity	Varsity	8	6	5	4	6	7	2	8	46
Varsity	Varsity	3	8	3	8	5	6	6	9	48
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	7	5	4	7	8	5	7	5	48	Luke Volk '17 C. Brice Lawrence '17
Bishop England High School	Bishops	9	10	OCS	10	9	8	9	7	73	Daniel Henesy '18 [1-8] Caroline Dziamniski '18 [1-2] Sofia Sheehan '18 [3-4, 7-8] Jackie Hanna '19 [5-6]
Varsity	Varsity	RDG	9	8	9	10	9	10	10	74

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Durham School of The Arts	Varsity	2	3	5	4	3	1	1	1	20	Sam Finlay '17 Gareth Ferguson '19
Waccamaw High School	Waccamaw	3	7	1	3	7	5	2	2	30	Noah Giltmier '18 Anna Sandor '18
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	5	4	4	1	2	3	4	8	31	Ben Newman '17 Caden Wilson '20
Varsity	Varsity	6	2	2	5	1	4	8	7	35
Varsity	Varsity	1	5	OCS	2	4	9	5	3	40
Varsity	Varsity	9	6	3	6	5	10	3	4	46
Bishop England High School	Bishops	7	1	6	10	8	6	7	5	50	Cameron Fairfax '18 [1-8] Jake Fairfax '17 [1-2] Jackie Hanna '19 [3-4, 7-8] Caroline Dziamniski '18 [5-6]
Lake Norman High School	Wildcats	4	8	8	8	10	8	6	6	58	Declan O'Dell '18 [1-8] Luke Fellner '17 [1-4] Ben Brown '18 [5-8]
Varsity	Varsity	8	10	OCS	7	6	2	9	10	63
Hurricanes	Hurricanes	10	9	7	9	9	7	10	9	70

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Varsity Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Bishop England High School Bishops	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Varsity Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Varsity Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	1	1
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	6	6	8	8	10	10	2	2
Hurricanes Hurricanes	7	7	9	9	1	1	3	3
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	8	8	10	10	2	2	4	4
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw	9	9	1	1	3	3	5	5
Varsity Varsity	10	10	2	2	4	4	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Varsity Varsity	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Bishop England High School Bishops	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Varsity Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Durham School of The Arts Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	1	1
Varsity Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10	2	2
Lake Norman High School Wildcats	7	7	9	9	1	1	3	3
Hurricanes Hurricanes	8	8	10	10	2	2	4	4
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	9	9	1	1	3	3	5	5
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw	10	10	2	2	4	4	6	6
Varsity Varsity	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bishop England High School	Daniel Henesy '18 [1-8]	Caroline Dziamniski '18 [1-2] Sofia Sheehan '18 [3-4, 7-8] Jackie Hanna '19 [5-6]
Bishops	Cameron Fairfax '18 [1-8]	Jake Fairfax '17 [1-2] Jackie Hanna '19 [3-4, 7-8] Caroline Dziamniski '18 [5-6]
Durham School of The Arts	G. Alex White '16	David Robertson '17
Varsity	Sam Finlay '17	Gareth Ferguson '19
Lake Norman High School	William Bowden '16	Courtney Weidinger '17
Wildcats	Declan O'Dell '18 [1-8]	Luke Fellner '17 [1-4] Ben Brown '18 [5-8]
Pine Lake Prep	Luke Volk '17	C. Brice Lawrence '17
Varsity	Ben Newman '17	Caden Wilson '20
Waccamaw High School	Noah Benton '18	Ella Smith '20
Waccamaw	Noah Giltmier '18	Anna Sandor '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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SAISA Open - Lake Crabtreee

Division A

Division B

From the notes