2016 Norcal 4- Silver Fleet

HostEncinal Yacht Club
Date11/06/2016
TypeIn-District
BoatCFJ
Scoring1 Division

#	School	Team	A	TOT
1	Woodside High School	Wildcat	3	3
2	Head Royce	Jayhawks	5	5
3	Harbor High School	Pirates	6	6
4	Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	10	10
5	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	11	11
6	Palo Alto High	Vikings	12	12
7	The Urban School	Blues 2	12	12
8	Marin Catholic	Wildcats	20	20
9	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	21	21
10	Santa Cruz High School	Cardinal	22	22
11	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	25	25
12	Lowell High School	Cardinals 1	25	25
13	Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	28	28
14	Redwood High School	Giants	30	30
15	International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	30	30
16	Athenian	Owls	31	31
17	Lowell High School	Cardinals 2	31	31
18	St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats	33	33
19	Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	37	37
20	Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	39	39
21	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	41	41
22	The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	42	42
23	The Urban School	Blues 1	44	44
24	Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	45	45
25	Leigh High School	Leigh	52	52
26	Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	54	54

School	Team	R1	R2	TOT	Sailors
Woodside High School	Wildcat	1	2	3	Jessica O'Neill '19 Marianna Lubarsky '19
Head Royce	Jayhawks	4	1	5	Jasper Reid '20 Eloise Henry '20
Harbor High School	Pirates	2	4	6	Chloe Long '19 Kelsey Hill '19
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	3	7	10	Tim Gee '20 Matthew Morley '20
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	5	6	11	Max Rodman '18 Stuart Myers '17
Palo Alto High	Vikings	7	5	12	Anthony Xie '19 Max Saparov '20
The Urban School	Blues 2	9	3	12	Cayley Crist '17 Anna Krylova '20
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	8	12	20	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 Miriam Rogers '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	13	8	21	Blake Bent '19 Megan Engelbrechten '19
Santa Cruz High School	Cardinal	11	11	22	Charlie Atkinson '18 Benjamin Hersey '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	6	19	25	Alex Meislich '19 Eliot Hall '19
Lowell High School	Cardinals 1	10	15	25	Aine Roonan '17 Julia Rafferty '17
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	19	9	28	Jemma Schroder '20 Madelyn Blessinger '19
Redwood High School	Giants	12	18	30	Jake Lopez '19 Mia Morgan '19
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	14	16	30	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-2] Leila O'Rourke '20 [1] Carolena Galvin '20 [2]
Athenian	Owls	17	14	31	Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-2] Solimar Guzman '20 [1] Julie Qian '20 [2]
Lowell High School	Cardinals 2	18	13	31	Mckenna Roonan '17 Emily Sobelman '19
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats	23	10	33	Paul Ikeda '20 Daria Bubnova '20
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	15	22	37	Lucien Canvinet '20 Will Gardner '19
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	16	23	39	Ben Covington '19 [1-2] Alexander Nunez '20 [1] Joshua Widjanarko '19 [2]
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	20	21	41	Noah Sanders '18 Eliot Minus '20
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	22	20	42	Derek Kuno-Williams '20 Charlotte Navin '20
The Urban School	Blues 1	DNF	17	44	Hannah Schrank '19 Dillan Srivastava '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	21	24	45	Savanna Defjen-Creson '19 [1-2] Berrett Nichols '19 [1] Eliot Hall '19 [2]
Leigh High School	Leigh	DNF	25	52	Millan Chaudhary '17 Andie Pillsbury '19
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	DNF	DNF	54	Luc Burkhart '20 Will Burkhart '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.230+0.23

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (15 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1	2222	2222
Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2	63	63
Convent and Stuart Hall Cubs	8	8
Design Tech High School d.tech 1	25	25
Design Tech High School d.tech 2	24	24
Harbor High School Pirates	109	109
Head Royce Jayhawks	51	51
International HS - San Francisco, CA Jaguars	6	6
Leigh High School Leigh	105	105
Lowell High School Cardinals 1	71	71
Lowell High School Cardinals 2	70	70
Marin Catholic Wildcats	16	16
Palo Alto High Vikings	23	23
Redwood High School Giants	122	122
Santa Cruz High School Cardinal	103	103
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 1	96	96
Sir Francis Drake Pirates 2	60	60
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Wildcats	3	3
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	133	133
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	134	134
Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 3	140	140
Athenian Owls	48	48
The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	81	81
The Urban School Blues 1	10	10
The Urban School Blues 2	141	141
Woodside High School Wildcat	26	26

School	Team	Skipper	Crew
Athenian	Owls	Alisa Chernikova '19 [1-2]	Solimar Guzman '20 [1] Julie Qian '20 [2]
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 1	Lucien Canvinet '20	Will Gardner '19
Berkeley High School	Yellowjackets 2	Max Rodman '18	Stuart Myers '17
Convent and Stuart Hall	Cubs	Ben Covington '19 [1-2]	Alexander Nunez '20 [1] Joshua Widjanarko '19 [2]
Design Tech High School	d.tech 1	Tim Gee '20	Matthew Morley '20
Design Tech High School	d.tech 2	Jemma Schroder '20	Madelyn Blessinger '19
Harbor High School	Pirates	Chloe Long '19	Kelsey Hill '19
Head Royce	Jayhawks	Jasper Reid '20	Eloise Henry '20
International HS - San Francisco, CA	Jaguars	Alexander Boccon- Gibod '17 [1-2]	Leila O'Rourke '20 [1] Carolena Galvin '20 [2]
Leigh High School	Leigh	Millan Chaudhary '17	Andie Pillsbury '19
Lowell High School	Cardinals 1	Aine Roonan '17	Julia Rafferty '17
Lowell High School	Cardinals 2	Mckenna Roonan '17	Emily Sobelman '19
Marin Catholic	Wildcats	Gabriella Von Esmarch '19	Miriam Rogers '19
Palo Alto High	Vikings	Anthony Xie '19	Max Saparov '20
Redwood High School	Giants	Jake Lopez '19	Mia Morgan '19
Santa Cruz High School	Cardinal	Charlie Atkinson '18	Benjamin Hersey '19
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 1	Noah Sanders '18	Eliot Minus '20
Sir Francis Drake	Pirates 2	Luc Burkhart '20	Will Burkhart '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco	Wildcats	Paul Ikeda '20	Daria Bubnova '20
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 1	Blake Bent '19	Megan Engelbrechten '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 2	Alex Meislich '19	Eliot Hall '19
Tamalpais High School	Red Tailed Hawks 3	Savanna Defjen-Creson '19 [1-2]	Berrett Nichols '19 [1] Eliot Hall '19 [2]
The Bay School of San Francisco	Breakers	Derek Kuno-Williams '20	Charlotte Navin '20
The Urban School	Blues 1	Hannah Schrank '19	Dillan Srivastava '20
The Urban School	Blues 2	Cayley Crist '17	Anna Krylova '20
Woodside High School	Wildcat	Jessica O'Neill '19	Marianna Lubarsky '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2016 Norcal 4- Silver Fleet

Division A

From the notes