Northern VT Fall Fleet Race

HostLake Champlain Community Sailing Center
Date09/24/2016
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Portland High School	Bulldogs	26	20	46
2	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 1	36	38	74
3	Duxbury High School	Varsity	27	53	80
4	Champlain VUHS	Varsity 2	52	41	93
5	Champlain VUHS	Varsity 1	46	49	95
6	Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 2	55	45	100
7	Unregistered-NESSA	Northern VT	52	61	113
8	Burlington High School	Seahorse	66	56	122

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Portland High School	Bulldogs	6	3	3	1	5	1	3	2	1	1	26	Annabelle Wieser '17 Nick Cushman '17
Duxbury High School	Varsity	1	2	1	2	6	2	4	3	3	3	27	James Cipolletti '18 Luna Peary '19
Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 1	7	1	4	8	1	3	2	1	7	2	36	Ellis Heminway '17 Miles Thompson '19
Champlain VUHS	Varsity 1	3	5	2	4	2	5	7	8	5	5	46	Issac Goldman '20 [1-6] Jack Boyton '18 [7-10] Ben Leonard '20 [1-6] Thomas Wright '19 [7-10]
Champlain VUHS	Varsity 2	2	4	6	3	8	8	5	5	4	7	52	Alex Merrill '17 [1-6] Wyatt Hoechner '17 [7-10] Aaron Mcnally '20 [1-6] Lindsea Hayes '18 [7-10]
Unregistered-NESSA	Northern VT	4	7	7	5	3	4	6	6	2	8	52	Cam Ritchie '20 Noah Powell '21
Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 2	5	6	5	6	7	6	1	7	8	4	55	Luke Weiser '19 Taylor Davis '18
Burlington High School	Seahorse	8	8	8	7	4	7	8	4	6	6	66	Anders Klinkenberg '19 [1-10] Joshua Scheidt '19 [1-4] William Keeton '18 [5-10]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Portland High School	Bulldogs	7	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	20	Fan Tai Bridges '17 Clementine Furber '17
Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 1	6	4	3	3	DNS	3	6	2	1	1	38	Meghan Taylor '17 Greta Morrisette '17
Champlain VUHS	Varsity 2	2	5	5	8	2	4	2	3	3	7	41	Nathan Hodgson-Walker '18 [1-4] Aaron Mcnally '20 [5-10] Nathan Van Buren '18 [1-4] Ezra Miller '18 [5-10]
Unregistered-NESSA	Southern ME 2	8	1	6	4	5	6	3	4	5	3	45	Nicole Morse '18 Conner Dillon '18
Champlain VUHS	Varsity 1	3	3	1	2	6	5	8	5	8	8	49	Jeff Goldman '18 [1-4] Eli Dunphy '20 [5-10] Kelsie Barnes '17 [1-4] Ryan Gladstone '20 [5-10]
Duxbury High School	Varsity	1	7	8	5	3	7	5	6	7	4	53	Katie Coakley '19 [1-4] Katie Lojko '19 [5-10] Tristan Bryant '19 [1-4] Caroline Williams '19 [5-10]
Burlington High School	Seahorse	4	8	7	7	4	2	7	8	4	5	56	Lucas Baumann '17 Julia Shannon-Grillo '20
Unregistered-NESSA	Northern VT	5	6	4	6	DNS	8	4	7	6	6	61	Julia Shannon-Grillo '20 Ryan Gladstone '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A
Burlington High School Seahorse	2	2	4	4	6	6
Champlain VUHS Varsity 1	3	3	5	5	8	8
Champlain VUHS Varsity 2	4	4	6	6	7	7
Duxbury High School Varsity	5	5	8	8	9	9
Portland High School Bulldogs	8	8	9	9	3	3
Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT	7	7	2	2	4	4
Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1	9	9	3	3	5	5
Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2	6	6	7	7	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B
Burlington High School Seahorse	3	3	5	5	8	8
Champlain VUHS Varsity 1	4	4	6	6	7	7
Champlain VUHS Varsity 2	5	5	8	8	9	9
Duxbury High School Varsity	6	6	7	7	2	2
Portland High School Bulldogs	7	7	2	2	4	4
Unregistered-NESSA Northern VT	9	9	3	3	5	5
Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 1	2	2	4	4	6	6
Unregistered-NESSA Southern ME 2	8	8	9	9	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Burlington High School	Anders Klinkenberg '19 [1-10]	Joshua Scheidt '19 [1-4] William Keeton '18 [5-10]
Seahorse	Lucas Baumann '17	Julia Shannon-Grillo '20
Champlain VUHS	Issac Goldman '20 [1-6] Jack Boyton '18 [7-10]	Ben Leonard '20 [1-6] Thomas Wright '19 [7-10]
Varsity 1	Jeff Goldman '18 [1-4] Eli Dunphy '20 [5-10]	Kelsie Barnes '17 [1-4] Ryan Gladstone '20 [5-10]
Champlain VUHS	Alex Merrill '17 [1-6] Wyatt Hoechner '17 [7-10]	Aaron Mcnally '20 [1-6] Lindsea Hayes '18 [7-10]
Varsity 2	Nathan Hodgson-Walker '18 [1-4] Aaron Mcnally '20 [5-10]	Nathan Van Buren '18 [1-4] Ezra Miller '18 [5-10]
Duxbury High School	James Cipolletti '18	Luna Peary '19
Varsity	Katie Coakley '19 [1-4] Katie Lojko '19 [5-10]	Tristan Bryant '19 [1-4] Caroline Williams '19 [5-10]
Portland High School	Annabelle Wieser '17	Nick Cushman '17
Bulldogs	Fan Tai Bridges '17	Clementine Furber '17
Unregistered-NESSA	Cam Ritchie '20	Noah Powell '21
Northern VT	Julia Shannon-Grillo '20	Ryan Gladstone '20
Unregistered-NESSA	Ellis Heminway '17	Miles Thompson '19
Southern ME 1	Meghan Taylor '17	Greta Morrisette '17
Unregistered-NESSA	Luke Weiser '19	Taylor Davis '18
Southern ME 2	Nicole Morse '18	Conner Dillon '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Northern VT Fall Fleet Race

Division A

Division B

From the notes