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Nor Cal 1-Silver Fleet

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 2 8 8
2 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2 17 17
3 The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1 21 21
4 International HS - San Francisco, CA International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity 32 32
5 St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity 2 35 35
6 Saratoga High School Saratoga High School Falcons 36 36
7 San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 1 37 37
8 Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 38 38
9 St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity 1 42 42
10 Lick-Wilmerding High School Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers 44 44
11 Stevenson School Stevenson School Varsity 51 51
12 Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 53 53
13 Marin Catholic Marin Catholic Wildcats 53 53
14 Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 58 58
15 Amador Valley Amador Valley Dons 80 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 2 1 4 1 1 1 8 Micherice Tao '19 [1-5]
Brian Kirz '18 [1, 3, 5]
Kate Elkort '18 [2, 4]
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 2 3 1 4 5 4 17 Cali Salinas '19
Sumner Strumph '17
The Bay School of San Francisco The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers 1 2 2 9 6 2 21 William Hale '18
Aj Torres '19
International HS - San Francisco, CA International HS - San Francisco, CA Varsity 9 7 6 2 8 32 Jade Greer '19
Sara Tamayo-Correa '18
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity 2 7 3 7 13 5 35 Mackenzie Berwick '18
Gabriella Schmidt '18
Saratoga High School Saratoga High School Falcons 12 10 2 3 9 36 Lilah Foster '17
Andie Pilsbury '19
San Francisco University High School San Francisco University High School Red Devils 1 5 5 5 11 11 37 Jeremy Gillespie '17
Kai Hill '17
Design Tech High School Design Tech High School d.tech 4 12 11 8 3 38 Jemma Schroder '20
Tim Gee '20
St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco St. Ignatius College Prep, San Francisco Varsity 1 6 13 10 7 6 42 Carolyne Ikeda '19 [1-5]
Evelyn Plam '19 [1, 3, 5]
William Plam '20 [2, 4]
Lick-Wilmerding High School Lick-Wilmerding High School Tigers 11 14 3 9 7 44 Nameer Hirschkind '19 [1-5]
James Scherr '20 [1-2]
Parker Klebahn '17 [3-5]
Stevenson School Stevenson School Varsity 8 11 14 4 14 51 Ben Gersten '18
Jerry Li '18
Tamalpais High School Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 10 6 12 12 13 53 Emma Figueredo '19 [1-2, 5]
Luke Marshall '19 [3-4]
Sean Engelbrechtin '18 [1-2, 5]
Marin Catholic Marin Catholic Wildcats 14 9 8 10 12 53 Gabriella Von Esmarch '19 [1-5]
Miriam Rogers '19 [1-2, 5]
Caitlin Buono '19 [3-4]
Redwood High School Redwood High School Giants 13 8 13 14 10 58 Jake Lopez '19
Madeline Wolfson '19
Amador Valley Amador Valley Dons RAF RAF RAF RAF RAF 80 Christopher Hopkins '21
Althea White '21

Conditions — 10/01/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1019.1 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 61°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.0 kn
avg  ·  max 11.1 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From WNW (303°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover11% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1019.1 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Santa Cruz Yacht Club: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.05 ± 0.25)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Santa Cruz Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Santa Cruz Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →